# Vericel Corporation (VCEL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/VCEL · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Vericel Corporation (VCEL), nexqual.com/VCEL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 42.91 (+4.43% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 41.09 · day 41.48–43.05 · 52w 28.95–49.32 · market cap $2.20B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $306M, net income $24.2M (7.9% margin), free cash flow $61.7M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 90.7x (avg 193.8x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold VCEL (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.13 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 59.71 (range 52–72).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +24.3% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -6.8% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.06, revenue estimate $78.0M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-05
- Dividend: VCEL paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 13.18% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 9.4 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $156M | $164M | $198M | $237M | $276M | $306M |
| Gross profit | $106M | $110M | $136M | $172M | $206M | — |
| Operating income | -$7.9M | -$17.1M | -$6.5M | $4.5M | $11.0M | $18.2M |
| Net income | -$7.5M | -$16.7M | -$3.2M | $10.4M | $16.5M | $24.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.16 | -$0.35 | -$0.07 | $0.20 | $0.32 | — |
| Free cash flow | $21.1M | $10.1M | $15.3M | -$5.8M | $24.7M | $61.7M |
| Gross margin | 67.9% | 66.8% | 68.6% | 72.6% | 74.4% | — |
| Operating margin | -5.0% | -10.4% | -3.3% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Net margin | -4.8% | -10.2% | -1.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% |
| Revenue growth | +25.8% | +5.2% | +20.2% | +20.1% | +16.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $103M | $120M | $110M | $116M | $137M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 90.7x · P/S 7.2x · P/FCF 35.6x · P/B 5.9x · FCF yield 2.81% · Earnings yield 1.10%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 113.7x, Dec 2024 273.9x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold VCEL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.01% | $1.2M | Unchanged |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.13 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 59.71 (low 52, high 72).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $58 → $52 |
| 2026-07-31 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $55 → $58 |
| 2026-07-31 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $54 → $58 |
| 2026-07-31 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target raised | Buy | $70 → $72 |
| 2026-07-28 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterated | Buy | $70 |
| 2026-07-16 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $42 → $54 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +24.3% | -6.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +24.4% | -1.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 40.9% | 44.6% |
| Max drawdown | -31.0% (Nov 2025→Mar 2026) | -53.8% (Nov 2021→Nov 2022) |

## Dividends
VCEL paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
5,238,041 shares sold short, 13.18% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 5,483,102 shares (-4.5%). Days to cover: 9.4 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Biotechnology)
ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 96.65 +0.71% · LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 317.33 -0.45% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 9.56 -35.45% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 44.39 -1.14% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 143.45 -0.04% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 89.06 -0.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/VCEL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in VCEL's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887359/000162828026012013/vcel-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) | "We hold exclusive license and supply agreements with MediWound to commercialize NexoBrid in North America." |
| Supplier | Matricel | "On July 1, 2023, we renewed our long-term supply agreement with Matricel GmbH ("Matricel") for the supply of ACI-Maix collagen membranes used in the manufacture of MACI (the "Matricel Supply Agreement")." |
| Customer | Orsini Pharmaceutical Services | "We contract with two specialty pharmacies, Orsini Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. ("Orsini") and AllCare Plus Pharmacy, Inc. ("AllCare") to distribute MACI in a manner in which we retain the credit and collection risk from…" |
| Customer | AllCare Plus Pharmacy | "We contract with two specialty pharmacies, Orsini Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. ("Orsini") and AllCare Plus Pharmacy, Inc. ("AllCare") to distribute MACI in a manner in which we retain the credit and collection risk from…" |

Other companies that name VCEL in their own reports (relationship from VCEL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) | 20-F 2026-03-05 | "On May 6, 2019, we entered into an exclusive license and supply agreements with Vericel" |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 13% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-26).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.06 | $0.09 | -34.1% | $78.0M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.53 | $0.48 | +10.1% | $112.4M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.52 | $0.45 | +14.2% | $336.2M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.85 | $0.85 | -0.7% | $392.9M | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±15.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 71.1% | ±15.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 60.1% | ±18.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 47.9% | ±18.4% |
| 2027-04-16 | 169 | 46.4% | ±25.6% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.04 | −$0.03 | Beat +$0.07 | -1.4% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.12 | −$0.16 | Beat +25.0% | -9.0% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.45 | $0.38 | Beat +18.4% | -3.8% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.45 | $0.38 | Beat +18.4% | +2.0% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.10 | −$0.01 | Beat +$0.11 | +4.7% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -12.4% |
| May 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +3.1% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -3.0% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Schedule 13G/A | Soleus Capital Master Fund, L.P., Soleus Capital, LLC: 2.8% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887359/000121390026088745/0001213900-26-088745-index.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887359/000162828026050836/0001628280-26-050836-index.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887359/000162828026050815/0001628280-26-050815-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.