# Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/VLO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), nexqual.com/VLO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 426.28 (-2.40% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 436.75 · day 416.41–436.06 · 52w 159.9–461.52 · market cap $123B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $139B, net income $7.21B (5.2% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 17.0x (avg 13.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.8x, net debt $3.48B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold VLO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $5.7M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($5.7M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 418.79 (range 238–530).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +151.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +514.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 20.77, revenue estimate $38.4B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $114B | $176B | $145B | $130B | $123B | $139B |
| Gross profit | $3.13B | $16.8B | $12.9B | $4.80B | $5.43B | — |
| Operating income | $2.13B | $15.7B | $11.9B | $3.75B | $3.18B | $10.0B |
| Net income | $930M | $11.5B | $8.84B | $2.77B | $2.35B | $7.21B |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.27 | $29.04 | $24.92 | $8.58 | $7.57 | — |
| Free cash flow | $3.40B | $9.84B | $7.31B | $4.63B | — | — |
| Gross margin | 2.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 1.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 7.2% |
| Net margin | 0.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 5.2% |
| Revenue growth | +75.6% | +54.8% | -17.9% | -10.3% | -5.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $4.12B | $4.86B | $5.42B | $4.66B | $4.69B | — |
| Total debt | $13.2B | $10.3B | $10.6B | $8.83B | $9.21B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 17.0x · P/S 0.9x · EV/EBITDA 10.8x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/B 4.9x · Earnings yield 5.88% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.15% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.93% · Net debt $3.48B · EV $126B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 21.4x, Dec 2024 14.3x, Dec 2023 5.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold VLO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bloomstran | Semper Augustus | 1.12% | $9.9M | Reduced -14.0% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Fisher Eric A | SVP | 7,500 | $2.0M | 27.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-18 | Fisher Eric A | SVP | 7,500 | $1.8M | 21.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Fisher Eric A | SVP | 7,500 | $1.9M | 17.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 418.79 (low 238, high 530).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $375 → $400 |
| 2026-10-14 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $389 → $485 |
| 2026-10-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $302 → $485 |
| 2026-10-12 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $325 → $385 |
| 2026-10-08 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Hold | $401 → $394 |
| 2026-10-08 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $300 → $434 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $323 → $441 |
| 2026-10-02 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Neutral | $395 → $414 |
| 2026-09-23 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $365 → $457 |
| 2026-09-22 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $401 |
| 2026-09-14 | Raymond James | Target raised | Strong Buy | $350 → $450 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $255 → $411 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +151.4% | +514.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +152.2% | +43.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.9% | 37.1% |
| Max drawdown | -12.1% (Nov 2025→Dec 2025) | -41.2% (Apr 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing)
MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) USD 459.28 -1.86% · PSX (Phillips 66) USD 284.63 -1.88% · DINO (HF Sinclair Corporation) USD 122.32 -2.59% · PBF (PBF Energy Inc.) USD 79.25 -2.81% · UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne) USD 7.8 -2.13% · CVI (CVR Energy Inc.) USD 58.63 -3.46%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/VLO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in VLO's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026011499/vlo-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (DAR) | "1 DGD is a joint venture with Darling Ingredients Inc. (Darling) and we consolidate DGD's financial statements." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | $42.30B | 95.1% | +49.3% | $4.47B | 10.6% |
| Renewable Diesel | $1.18B | 2.6% | +108.1% | $717.0M | 61.0% |
| Ethanol | $1.00B | 2.2% | +0.0% | $318.0M | 31.8% |
| Total revenue | $44.48B | 100% | — | $5.50B | 12.4% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distillates | $20.69B | 46.5% | +61.9% |
| Gasoline & Blendstocks | $17.42B | 39.2% | +36.9% |
| Manufactured Product Other | $4.20B | 9.4% | +48.5% |
| Renewable Diesel Product | $1.06B | 2.4% | +124.9% |
| Ethanol Product | $789.0M | 1.8% | +1.2% |
| Distillers Grains | $211.0M | 0.5% | -4.1% |
| Neat SAF | $80.0M | 0.2% | +63.3% |
| Renewable Naphtha Product | $39.0M | 0.1% | -15.2% |
| Total revenue | $44.48B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $87.82B | 71.6% | -5.9% |
| United Kingdom & Ireland | $15.83B | 12.9% | +3.9% |
| Canada | $8.14B | 6.6% | -5.1% |
| Other Countries | $5.73B | 4.7% | -22.0% |
| Mexico & Peru | $5.17B | 4.2% | -4.4% |
| Total revenue | $122.69B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $20.77 | $7.74 | +168.3% | $38.45B | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $13.79 | $5.04 | +173.5% | $37.48B | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $61.10 | $35.24 | +73.4% | $162.08B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $50.36 | $24.88 | +102.4% | $141.10B | 19 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 56.4% | ±6.7% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 54.8% | ±8.9% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 54.6% | ±10.7% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 53.8% | ±12.2% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 51.9% | ±13.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 52.1% | ±14.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 51.7% | ±16.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 51.0% | ±19.6% |