# VSE Corporation (VSEC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/VSEC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, VSE Corporation (VSEC), nexqual.com/VSEC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 148.15 (-3.59% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 153.67 · day 142.72–150.38 · 52w 142.72–247.85 · market cap $4.16B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.36B, net income $75.1M (5.5% margin), free cash flow -$1.1M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 55.4x (avg 149.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 27.7x, net debt $872M.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold VSEC (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $5.8M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.3M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.17 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 257.11 (range 215–280).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -16.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +206.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.74, revenue estimate $512M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $481M | $669M | $544M | $786M | $1.11B | $1.36B |
| Operating income | -$2.7M | $53.6M | $50.1M | $58.8M | $89.6M | $124M |
| Net income | $8.0M | $28.1M | $39.1M | $15.3M | $11.7M | $75.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.63 | $2.19 | $2.76 | $0.85 | $0.55 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$28.1M | -$3.2M | -$40.5M | -$51.7M | $5.7M | -$1.1M |
| Operating margin | -0.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% |
| Net margin | 1.7% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 5.5% |
| Revenue growth | -27.2% | +39.1% | -18.7% | +44.5% | +41.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $518K | $305K | $7.8M | $29.5M | $69.4M | — |
| Total debt | $285M | $286M | $429M | $430M | $293M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 55.4x · P/S 3.1x · EV/EBITDA 27.7x · EV/Sales 3.7x · P/B 1.4x · FCF yield -0.03% · Earnings yield 1.81% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.22% · Net debt $872M · EV $5.03B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 313.5x, Dec 2024 111.6x, Dec 2023 23.4x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold VSEC. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 2.18% | $224M | Reduced -30.2% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.06% | $6.8M | Reduced -29.0% |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.02% | $10.4M | Added +140.1% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Cuomo John A | CEO and President | 1,566 | $294K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted May 11, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Cuomo John A | CEO and President | 17,500 | $4.2M | 9.4% | Yes (adopted May 11, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-12 | Thomas Benjamin E. | Chief Operating Officer | 6,500 | $1.3M | 13.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.17 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 257.11 (low 215, high 280).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Keybanc | Initiated | Sector Weight |  |
| 2026-10-19 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $245 → $215 |
| 2026-09-15 | Guggenheim | Initiated | Neutral |  |
| 2026-08-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $263 → $280 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deutsche Bank | Target raised | Buy | $280 → $290 |
| 2026-08-10 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $245 → $260 |
| 2026-08-07 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $240 → $265 |
| 2026-06-26 | Morgan Stanley | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $245 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -16.4% | +206.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -16.4% | +25.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.2% | 45.7% |
| Max drawdown | -39.1% (Aug 2026→Oct 2026) | -46.3% (Nov 2021→Jul 2022) |

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
SARO (StandardAero, Inc.) USD 21.72 +1.26% · KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solut) USD 38.27 -1.21% · CAE (CAE Inc) USD 25.02 +2.08% · DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.) USD 34.3 +1.06% · MOG-B (Moog Inc.) USD 335.16 -8.43% · HII (Huntington Ingalls Industries, ) USD 278.86 +1.79%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/VSEC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in VSEC's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/102752/000010275226000015/vsec-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Honeywell (HON) | "On September 27, 2023, the Company entered into an Asset Purchase and License Agreement with Honeywell International Inc. ("Honeywell"), for a purchase price of $105.0 million, to exclusively manufacture, sell, market, d…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services | $245.7M | 54.7% | +149.4% |
| Products | $203.4M | 45.3% | +17.2% |
| Total revenue | $449.1M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $629.7M | 56.6% | +27.9% |
| Non US & Non Canada | $333.6M | 30.0% | +78.7% |
| Canada | $149.0M | 13.4% | +38.9% |
| Total revenue | $1.11B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 20% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-27).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "We delivered record revenue and profitability in the second quarter, exceeding our prior expectations and representing a significant step toward achieving a consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin (2) of more than 20% in the near future."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.74 | $1.12 | +56.2% | $512.1M | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.83 | $1.17 | +56.8% | $529.1M | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.78 | $4.37 | +55.0% | $1.81B | 11 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $8.26 | $5.68 | +45.5% | $2.20B | 11 |