# Vistra Corp. (VST)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/VST · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Vistra Corp. (VST), nexqual.com/VST" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 140.83 (-9.81% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 156.14 · day 139.1–154.27 · 52w 132.66–203.66 · market cap $47.3B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $19.6B, net income $2.22B (11.3% margin), free cash flow $2.25B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 21.3x (avg 29.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 12.3x, net debt $19.2B.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold VST (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 0 new, 3 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $25.9M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.6M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.2M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.96 on a 1–5 scale) (23 analysts), mean target USD 208.86 (range 106–305).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -26.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +703.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-06, EPS estimate USD 2.59, revenue estimate $6.90B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B | $15.6B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $17.7B | $19.6B |
| Operating income | -$1.51B | -$1.18B | $2.66B | $4.08B | $1.91B | $3.56B |
| Net income | -$1.27B | -$1.23B | $1.49B | $2.66B | $944M | $2.22B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.69 | -$3.26 | $3.58 | $7.00 | $2.18 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$1.24B | -$816M | $3.78B | $2.48B | $1.32B | $2.25B |
| Operating margin | -8.6% | -7.5% | 18.0% | 23.7% | 10.7% | 18.2% |
| Net margin | -7.2% | -7.8% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 5.3% | 11.3% |
| Revenue growth | +54.7% | -11.7% | -5.5% | +16.5% | +3.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.32B | $455M | $3.48B | $1.19B | $785M | — |
| Total debt | $10.7B | $12.6B | $14.4B | $16.3B | $18.8B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 21.3x · P/S 2.4x · EV/EBITDA 12.3x · EV/Sales 3.4x · P/FCF 21.0x · P/B 8.6x · FCF yield 4.77% · Earnings yield 4.69% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.65% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.43% · Net debt $19.2B · EV $66.4B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 59.1x, Dec 2024 18.3x, Dec 2023 9.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold VST (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Tepper | Appaloosa Management | 4.70% | $351M | Added +9.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Harry Burn | Sound Shore | 2.82% | $91.6M | Added +20.4% | Q2 2026 |
| John Armitage | Egerton Capital | 1.34% | $132M | Added +96.0% | Q3 2026 |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
8 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | 20,000 | $3.3M | 8.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-10-06 | Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 22,222 | $3.6M | 6.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-08 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | 20,000 | $3.0M | 8.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-08 | Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 44,444 | $6.7M | 11.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-18 | Sult John R | Director | 6,500 | $1.1M | 8.4% | Yes (adopted March 16, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-18 | Acosta Arcilia | Director | 15,000 | $2.5M | 31.5% | Yes (adopted March 16, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-16 | Helm Scott B | Director | 25,000 | $4.0M | 9.7% | Yes (adopted March 11, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-12…2026-06-15 | Barbas Paul M | Director | 488 | $73K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-02 | Montemayor Margaret | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 4,600 | $736K | 32% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-27 | Montemayor Margaret | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 5,000 | $825K | 25.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 purchases, $1.2M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31…2026-09-01 | Burke James A | President and CEO | 6,665 | $903K | 135.49 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-08-24 | Burke James A | President and CEO | 2,000 | $270K | 135 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.96 on a 1–5 scale), 23 analysts; mean target USD 208.86 (low 106, high 305).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | HSBC | Initiated | Buy | $190 |
| 2026-10-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $227 → $226 |
| 2026-10-16 | CIBC | Initiated | Outperformer | $201 |
| 2026-10-05 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $231 → $210 |
| 2026-10-01 | Bernstein | Reiterated | Outperform | $181 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mizuho | Initiated | Outperform | $169 |
| 2026-08-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $212 → $227 |
| 2026-08-19 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $222 → $221 |
| 2026-07-28 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $233 → $227 |
| 2026-07-28 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $208 → $212 |
| 2026-07-27 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $230 → $222 |
| 2026-07-15 | Scotiabank | Target raised | Sector Outperform | $293 → $298 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -26.0% | +703.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -26.1% | +51.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 50.9% | 44.6% |
| Max drawdown | -33.0% (Oct 2025→May 2026) | -48.6% (Jan 2025→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Utilities - Independent Power Producers)
CEG (Constellation Energy Corporatio) USD 255.21 -5.74% · NRG (NRG Energy, Inc.) USD 94.38 -5.43% · TLN (Talen Energy Corporation) USD 331.42 -7.81% · OKLO (Oklo Inc.) USD 27.01 -2.60% · TAC (TransAlta Corporation) USD 12.51 -6.22% · HNRG (Hallador Energy Company) USD 11.22 -2.01%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/VST · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in VST's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | EFH | "Under the Tax Matters Agreement, we may engage in an otherwise restricted action if (a) we obtain written consent from EFH Corp., (b) such action or transaction is described in or otherwise consistent with the facts in t…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | $3.34B | 83.2% | +11.5% |
| East | $774.0M | 19.3% | +44.9% |
| Texas | $203.0M | 5.1% | +35.3% |
| West | $79.0M | 2.0% | +16.2% |
| Total revenue | $4.02B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 109.5% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Energy Charge In ERCOT | $2.25B | 56.1% | +2.1% |
| Retail Energy Charge In Northeast Midwest | $1.09B | 27.2% | +37.6% |
| Total other revenues | $266.0M | 6.6% | -50.1% |
| — Hedging revenues — realized (part of Total other revenues) | $188.0M | 4.7% | -49.2% |
| — Hedging revenues — unrealized (part of Total other revenues) | $57.0M | 1.4% | -59.6% |
| — Intersegment sales (part of Total other revenues) | $21.0M | 0.5% | -4.5% |
| Total revenue | $4.02B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 89.9% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-07)

- "Guidance 3 ($ in millions) Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance Ranges Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA $6,800 - $7,600 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG $3,925 - $4,725 As of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged approximately 100% of its expected generation volumes for 2026, approximately 94% for 2027, and approximately 72% for 2028."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.59 | $2.36 | +10.1% | $6.90B | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.14 | $2.65 | +18.5% | $6.38B | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $9.52 | $9.82 | -3.0% | $22.35B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $10.36 | $11.29 | -8.2% | $24.12B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-06): ±10.1%; earnings reaction alone ±5.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 55.6% | ±6.6% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 62.0% | ±10.1% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 58.7% | ±11.2% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 55.4% | ±12.5% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 52.7% | ±13.2% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 51.5% | ±14.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 49.9% | ±15.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 49.4% | ±19.0% |