# Valvoline Inc. (VVV)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/VVV · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Valvoline Inc. (VVV), nexqual.com/VVV" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 32.44 (+4.24% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 31.12 · day 30.89–32.47 · 52w 26.21–41.08 · market cap $4.14B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.96B, net income $102M (5.2% margin), free cash flow $135M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 40.8x (avg 17.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $239K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($125K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $501K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.13 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 42.63 (range 34–48).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -4.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -6.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-18, EPS estimate USD 0.42, revenue estimate $568M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.04B | $1.24B | $1.44B | $1.62B | $1.71B | $1.96B |
| Gross profit | $432M | $476M | $545M | $619M | $659M | — |
| Operating income | $240M | $220M | $247M | $367M | $390M | $301M |
| Net income | $420M | $424M | $1.42B | $212M | $211M | $102M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.29 | $2.35 | $8.73 | $1.61 | $1.64 | — |
| Free cash flow | $301M | $152M | -$221M | $40.7M | $38.0M | $135M |
| Gross margin | 41.7% | 38.5% | 37.7% | 38.2% | 38.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 23.1% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 15.3% |
| Net margin | 40.5% | 34.3% | 98.4% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 5.2% |
| Revenue growth | +42.7% | +19.2% | +16.8% | +12.2% | +5.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $123M | $23.4M | $757M | $68.3M | — | — |
| Total debt | $1.65B | $1.69B | $1.59B | $1.09B | $1.07B | — |
Fiscal years end Sep. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 40.8x · P/S 2.1x · P/FCF 30.6x · P/B 9.9x · FCF yield 3.27% · Earnings yield 2.45% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.00%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2025 21.9x, Sep 2024 25.9x, Sep 2023 3.7x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | O'Daniel Julie Marie | Chief Legal Officer | 3,700 | $125K | 17.6% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-25 | Caldwell Jonathan L. | Chief People Officer | 2,851 | $114K | 12% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 purchases, $501K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Denny Jordan M. | Chief Accounting Officer | 1,506 | $50K | 33.2 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Slater Jennifer Lynn | Director | 1,000 | $33K | 32.53 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-14 | Willis J Kevin | Chief Financial Officer | 10,000 | $318K | 31.8 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-14 | Freeland Richard Joseph | Director | 3,100 | $100K | 32.37 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.13 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 42.63 (low 34, high 48).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $49 → $46 |
| 2026-10-14 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $45 → $40 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $41 → $39 |
| 2026-10-01 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $41 → $34 |
| 2026-09-11 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $46 → $49 |
| 2026-08-20 | Benchmark | Initiated | Buy | $48 |
| 2026-08-06 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $47 → $45 |
| 2026-08-06 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $47 → $46 |
| 2026-07-28 | Stephens & Co. | Target raised | Overweight | $44 → $48 |
| 2026-07-22 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $35 → $41 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $42 → $45 |
| 2026-07-20 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $42 → $47 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -4.1% | -6.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -4.1% | -1.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.5% | 29.4% |
| Max drawdown | -33.9% (Jul 2026→Sep 2026) | -41.9% (Jul 2024→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Auto & Truck Dealerships)
OPLN (OPENLANE, Inc.) USD 38.05 +1.63% · AN (AutoNation, Inc.) USD 161.84 +5.77% · ABG (Asbury Automotive Group Inc) USD 173.43 +5.72% · GPI (Group 1 Automotive, Inc.) USD 242.79 +7.98% · LAD (Lithia Motors, Inc.) USD 291.07 +8.15% · RUSHB (Rush Enterprises, Inc.) USD 57.89 -1.14%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/VVV · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name VVV in their own reports (relationship from VVV's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | ASHLAND INC. (ASH) | 10-K 2025-11-20 | "The Valvoline activity within 2025, 2024 and 2023 primarily represents subsequent adjustments that were made in conjunction with post-closing disputes and the Tax Matters Agreement with Valvoline." |

## Revenue by product line (fiscal year ended 2025-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Changes | $1.25B | 72.9% | +4.9% |
| Non Oil Changes | $368.4M | 21.5% | +5.2% |
| Franchise | $94.6M | 5.5% | +18.0% |
| Total revenue | $1.71B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.66B | 96.9% | +5.4% |
| International | $53.2M | 3.1% | +12.7% |
| Total revenue | $1.71B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.42 | $0.48 | -12.1% | $568.0M | 15 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.35 | $0.40 | -12.4% | $539.7M | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.76 | $1.75 | +0.6% | $2.08B | 16 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-09-30) | $1.97 | $2.06 | -4.4% | $2.32B | 16 |