# Wayfair Inc. (W)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/W · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Wayfair Inc. (W), nexqual.com/W" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 113.49 (+0.16% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 113.31 · day 110.76–116.28 · 52w 55.6–119.98 · market cap $15.5B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $12.9B, net income -$321M (-2.5% margin), free cash flow $562M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold W (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 16 Form 4 filings, $91.4M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 4 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 12 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale) (33 analysts), mean target USD 122.76 (range 80–156).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +36.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -52.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.81, revenue estimate $3.38B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.7B | $12.2B | $12.0B | $11.9B | $12.5B | $12.9B |
| Gross profit | $3.90B | $3.42B | $3.67B | $3.57B | $3.77B | — |
| Operating income | -$94.0M | -$1.38B | -$813M | -$461M | $17.0M | $215M |
| Net income | -$131M | -$1.33B | -$738M | -$492M | -$313M | -$321M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.26 | -$12.54 | -$6.47 | -$4.01 | -$2.44 | — |
| Free cash flow | $309M | -$860M | $201M | $244M | $464M | $562M |
| Gross margin | 28.4% | 28.0% | 30.6% | 30.2% | 30.2% | — |
| Operating margin | -0.7% | -11.3% | -6.8% | -3.9% | 0.1% | 1.7% |
| Net margin | -1.0% | -10.9% | -6.1% | -4.2% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| Revenue growth | -3.1% | -10.9% | -1.8% | -1.3% | +5.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $2.40B | $1.28B | $1.35B | $1.37B | $1.54B | — |
| Total debt | $3.05B | $3.14B | $3.21B | $3.12B | $3.27B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 1.2x · EV/EBITDA 35.0x · EV/Sales 1.3x · P/FCF 27.7x · FCF yield 3.62% · Earnings yield -2.07% · Net debt $1.69B · EV $17.2B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold W. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | <0.01% | $222K | Reduced -93.2% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
16 of 16 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Tan Fiona | Chief Technology Officer | 8,000 | $920K | 3.9% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jan & Apr each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-15 | Shah Niraj | Chief Executive Officer | 117,000 | $13.0M | 47.8% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-15 | Blotner Jon | Pres., Commercial & Operations | 546 | $60K | 0.5% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-10-15 | Conine Steven | Director | 117,000 | $13.0M | 47.8% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-12 | Shah Niraj | Chief Executive Officer | 69,000 | $7.3M | 22% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-12 | Conine Steven | Director | 69,000 | $7.3M | 22% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-02 | Blotner Jon | Pres., Commercial & Operations | 6,056 | $631K | 4.9% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-10-01 | Tan Fiona | Chief Technology Officer | 7,000 | $715K | 2.8% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jan & Apr each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-14 | Conine Steven | Director | 69,000 | $7.1M | 18% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-14 | Shah Niraj | Chief Executive Officer | 69,000 | $7.1M | 18% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-08 | Blotner Jon | Pres., Commercial & Operations | 6,968 | $698K | 5.9% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-12 | Shah Niraj | Chief Executive Officer | 69,000 | $7.1M | 15.3% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-12 | Conine Steven | Director | 69,000 | $7.1M | 15.3% | Yes (adopted May 6, 2026) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-02 | Blotner Jon | Pres., Commercial & Operations | 5,925 | $571K | 4.8% | Yes (adopted August 12, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-23…2026-04-24 | Conine Steven | Director | 120,000 | $9.3M | 21% | Yes (adopted May 29, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-23…2026-04-24 | Shah Niraj | Chief Executive Officer | 120,000 | $9.3M | 21% | Yes (adopted May 29, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale), 33 analysts; mean target USD 122.76 (low 80, high 156).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $133 → $135 |
| 2026-10-08 | Baird | Target raised | Neutral | $116 → $117 |
| 2026-09-29 | Mizuho | Target raised | Outperform | $90 → $110 |
| 2026-08-20 | Rosenblatt | Initiated | Buy | $125 |
| 2026-08-14 | Bernstein | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $100 → $125 |
| 2026-08-14 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $95 → $133 |
| 2026-08-05 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $118 → $156 |
| 2026-08-05 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $75 → $110 |
| 2026-08-05 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $99 → $135 |
| 2026-08-05 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $78 → $92 |
| 2026-08-05 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $100 → $130 |
| 2026-08-05 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $100 → $135 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +36.5% | -52.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +36.7% | -13.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 70.0% | 74.9% |
| Max drawdown | -51.8% (Jan 2026→May 2026) | -90.6% (Nov 2021→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Internet Retail)
CART (Maplebear Inc.) USD 51.68 +2.72% · CPNG (Coupang, Inc.) USD 13.99 +0.87% · CHWY (Chewy, Inc.) USD 22.33 +4.69% · ETSY (Etsy, Inc.) USD 90.82 +4.12% · JD (JD.com, Inc.) USD 25.68 -0.43% · GLBE (Global-E Online Ltd.) USD 41.33 +0.46%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/W · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in W's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616707/000161670726000027/w-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "We obtain a significant amount of traffic via search engines and, therefore, rely on search engines such as Google, Bing and Yahoo! as well as AI-powered search and generative answer platforms." |
| Competitor | Home Depot (HD) | "•Big Box Retailers: Home Depot, IKEA, Lowe's, Costco, Target and Walmart;" |
| Competitor | Lowe's (LOW) | "•Big Box Retailers: Home Depot, IKEA, Lowe's, Costco, Target and Walmart;" |
| Competitor | Costco (COST) | "•Big Box Retailers: Home Depot, IKEA, Lowe's, Costco, Target and Walmart;" |
| Competitor | Walmart (WMT) | "•Big Box Retailers: Home Depot, IKEA, Lowe's, Costco, Target and Walmart;" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "•Online Retailers and Marketplaces: Amazon, Houzz, eBay, Etsy and Bed Bath & Beyond;" |

Other companies that name W in their own reports (relationship from W's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| supplier | GDEV Inc. (GDEV) | 20-F 2026-03-31 | "Wayfair, Inc. et al., or Wayfair, remote online sellers can be required to collect sales and use tax despite not having a physical presence in the state of the customer." |
| partner | Katapult Holdings, Inc. (KPLT) | 10-K 2026-03-11 | "Our largest merchant partner is Wayfair, Inc. ("Wayfair")." |
| related | RISKIFIED LTD. (RSKD) | 20-F 2026-03-06 | "The Class A ordinary shares issuable to Wayfair upon exercise of the warrant are entitled to certain registration rights under the Investors' Rights Agreement as described in greater detail above in t…" |
| supplier | 1stdibs.com, Inc. (DIBS) | 10-K 2026-02-27 | "Wayfair, Inc. et al ("Wayfair"), that online sellers can be required to collect sales tax despite not having a physical presence in the state of the customer." |
| supplier | TheRealReal, Inc. (REAL) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "Wayfair, Inc. et al ("Wayfair"), that online sellers can be required to collect sales tax despite not having a physical presence in the state of the customer." |
| supplier | Playtika Holding Corp. (PLTK) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "Wayfair, Inc. et al, or Wayfair, that online sellers can be required to collect sales and use tax despite not having a physical presence in the state of the customer." |
| supplier | AppLovin Corp (APP) | 10-K 2026-02-19 | "Wayfair, Inc., U.S. states may require an out-of-state seller with no in-state property or personnel to collect and remit sales tax on sales to the state's residents, which may permit wider enforcemen…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $3.13B | 88.8% | +8.7% |
| International | $394.0M | 11.2% | -1.3% |
| Total revenue | $3.52B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "Accordingly, we believe that Net Revenue Constant Currency Growth provides useful information to investors and others in understanding and evaluating trends in our operating results in the same manner as our management. 9 We calculate forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures based on internal forecasts that omit certain amounts that would be included in forward-looking GAAP financial measures."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.81 | $0.76 | +6.7% | $3.38B | 24 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.96 | $0.95 | +0.1% | $3.60B | 24 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.91 | $2.81 | +3.6% | $13.42B | 28 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.89 | $3.74 | +4.0% | $14.42B | 28 |