# Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/WCN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN), nexqual.com/WCN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 184.88 (+9.86% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 168.28 · day 170.99–186.93 · 52w 146.89–186.93 · market cap $46.5B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $9.94B, net income $1.13B (11.4% margin), free cash flow $1.25B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 41.0x (avg 54.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 18.2x, net debt $9.33B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold WCN (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $4.4M; 11 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.4M); 7 by opportunistic insiders (7 outside 10b5-1 plans), 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $7.6M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.93 on a 1–5 scale) (27 analysts), mean target USD 202.48 (range 170–225).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +5.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +42.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-21, EPS estimate USD 1.39, revenue estimate $2.53B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.15B | $7.21B | $8.02B | $8.92B | $9.47B | $9.94B |
| Gross profit | $2.50B | $2.88B | $3.28B | $3.73B | $4.01B | — |
| Operating income | $1.04B | $1.24B | $1.24B | $1.07B | $1.71B | $1.76B |
| Net income | $618M | $836M | $763M | $618M | $1.08B | $1.13B |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.36 | $3.24 | $2.95 | $2.39 | $4.17 | — |
| Free cash flow | $954M | $1.11B | $1.19B | $1.17B | $1.23B | $1.25B |
| Gross margin | 40.6% | 39.9% | 40.9% | 41.8% | 42.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 16.9% | 17.2% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| Net margin | 10.0% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Revenue growth | +13.0% | +17.2% | +11.2% | +11.2% | +6.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $147M | $78.6M | $78.4M | $62.4M | $46.0M | — |
| Total debt | $5.05B | $6.90B | $6.72B | $8.07B | $8.81B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 41.0x · P/S 4.7x · EV/EBITDA 18.2x · EV/Sales 5.6x · P/FCF 37.2x · P/B 5.9x · FCF yield 2.69% · Earnings yield 2.44% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.76% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.17% · Net debt $9.33B · EV $55.8B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 42.0x, Dec 2024 71.9x, Dec 2023 50.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold WCN. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Gates Foundation Trust | 0.99% | $340M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Nielsen Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | 700 | $119K | 17.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-18 | Rivard Philip | SR VP Business Development | 2,500 | $416K | 77.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-13 | Netherton Susan | SR VP People, Training & Dev | 1,750 | $291K | 11.9% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-29 | Nielsen Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | 300 | $52K | 7.1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-28 | Cloninger Robert Michael | SR VP, Deputy General Counsel | 2,811 | $481K | 19.4% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-05 | Shea Patrick James | Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec | 7,500 | $1.2M | 27.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-05 | Craft Jason | Executive Vice President & COO | 1,500 | $235K | 4.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-14 | Nielsen Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | 500 | $78K | 10.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-12…2026-05-13 | Nielsen Iii Robert | SR VP Operations | 627 | $95K | 11.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-30 | Hansen Eric | Senior Vice President and CIO | 6,000 | $989K | 31% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-04-27 | Little James | Executive VP Engineering | 2,605 | $427K | 5.1% | No | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $7.6M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Mittelstaedt Ronald J | President & CEO | 50,000 | $7.6M | 152.24 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.93 on a 1–5 scale), 27 analysts; mean target USD 202.48 (low 170, high 225).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $182 → $175 |
| 2026-10-13 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $205 → $195 |
| 2026-10-08 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $195 → $180 |
| 2026-10-08 | CIBC | Target lowered | Outperformer | $199 → $184 |
| 2026-09-18 | UBS | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $176 → $200 |
| 2026-08-04 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $170 → $176 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $180 → $187 |
| 2026-07-24 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $200 → $210 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $210 → $195 |
| 2026-07-10 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $180 → $182 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +5.2% | +42.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +5.3% | +7.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 25.4% | 19.8% |
| Max drawdown | -16.2% (Dec 2025→May 2026) | -24.1% (Apr 2025→May 2026) |

## Peers (Waste Management)
RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) USD 241.9 +5.03% · WM (Waste Management, Inc.) USD 239.1 +4.15% · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) USD 320.96 +0.53% · GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin) USD 44.14 +1.52% · CWST (Casella Waste Systems, Inc.) USD 96.89 +7.39% · OIO (OIO Group) USD 1.87 +1.08%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/WCN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in WCN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Chiquita Canyon | "During and prior to the year ended December 31, 2024, we worked to address regulatory constraints related to the active waste disposal operations that were preventing our Chiquita Canyon Landfill ("Chiquita") from contin…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solid Waste Collection | $1.83B | 69.2% | +5.5% |
| Southern | $612.7M | 23.2% | +12.0% |
| Western | $595.0M | 22.6% | +7.5% |
| Eastern | $554.2M | 21.0% | +4.1% |
| Central | $490.6M | 18.6% | +5.4% |
| Canada | $419.6M | 15.9% | +8.6% |
| Mid South | $371.0M | 14.1% | +9.2% |
| Total revenue | $2.64B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 184.6% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | $799.6M | 30.3% | +6.6% |
| Residential | $632.2M | 24.0% | +5.2% |
| Landfill | $443.9M | 16.8% | +7.1% |
| Transfer | $422.7M | 16.0% | +8.4% |
| Industrial & Construction Roll Off | $393.9M | 14.9% | +3.9% |
| Exploration & Production Waste Treatment Recovery & Disposal | $222.6M | 8.4% | +18.0% |
| Solid Waste Recycling | $67.7M | 2.6% | +16.0% |
| Other | $60.3M | 2.3% | +41.4% |
| Total revenue | $2.64B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 115.3% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-21)

- "Outlook ​ Waste Connections also updated its outlook for 2026, which assumes no change in the current economic environment or underlying economic trends."
- "The Company's outlook excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the year, and expensing of transaction-related items."
- "Certain components of the outlook for 2026 are subject to quarterly fluctuations."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.39 | $1.39 | -0.0% | $2.53B | 22 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $1.37 | $1.36 | +0.1% | $2.53B | 14 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $5.69 | $5.63 | +1.0% | $10.10B | 24 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $6.18 | $6.20 | -0.4% | $10.68B | 27 |