# Wingstop Inc. (WING)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/WING · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Wingstop Inc. (WING), nexqual.com/WING" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 120.87 (+0.77% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 119.95 · day 118.66–123.49 · 52w 95.82–302.8 · market cap $3.29B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $721M, net income $116M (16.2% margin), free cash flow $128M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 28.3x (avg 74.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 19.2x, net debt $1.08B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $31K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($31K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale) (28 analysts), mean target USD 190 (range 120–265).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -53.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -25.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 1.04, revenue estimate $193M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $283M | $358M | $460M | $626M | $697M | $721M |
| Gross profit | $225M | $294M | $389M | $534M | — | — |
| Operating income | $73.8M | $91.9M | $113M | $166M | $179M | $201M |
| Net income | $42.7M | $52.9M | $70.2M | $109M | $174M | $116M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.42 | $1.77 | $2.35 | $3.70 | $6.21 | — |
| Free cash flow | $20.9M | $52.3M | $80.8M | $106M | $106M | $128M |
| Gross margin | 79.7% | 82.3% | 84.6% | 85.4% | — | — |
| Operating margin | 26.1% | 25.7% | 24.5% | 26.5% | 25.7% | 27.9% |
| Net margin | 15.1% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 17.4% | 25.0% | 16.2% |
| Revenue growth | +13.5% | +26.6% | +28.7% | +36.0% | +11.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $48.6M | $184M | $90.2M | $316M | $197M | — |
| Total debt | $478M | $725M | $721M | $1.22B | $1.22B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 28.3x · P/S 4.6x · EV/EBITDA 19.2x · EV/Sales 6.1x · P/FCF 25.6x · FCF yield 3.90% · Earnings yield 3.54% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.01% · Buyback yield (TTM) 5.45% · Net debt $1.08B · EV $4.38B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 38.4x, Dec 2024 76.8x, Dec 2023 109.2x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Fallon Christopher | Former SVP & CIO | 250 | $31K | 48.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale), 28 analysts; mean target USD 190 (low 120, high 265).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $240 → $200 |
| 2026-10-22 | Baird | Target lowered | Outperform | $160 → $150 |
| 2026-10-20 | StoneX | Target lowered | Buy | $245 → $185 |
| 2026-10-16 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $208 → $191 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $238 → $202 |
| 2026-09-17 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $200 → $150 |
| 2026-09-11 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Hold | $160 → $120 |
| 2026-08-03 | Bernstein | Downgrade | Outperform → Market Perform | $220 → $155 |
| 2026-07-30 | Benchmark | Target lowered | Buy | $285 → $245 |
| 2026-07-30 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $237 → $208 |
| 2026-07-30 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $225 → $200 |
| 2026-07-30 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Buy | $200 → $190 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -53.0% | -25.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -53.1% | -5.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 63.1% | 53.4% |
| Max drawdown | -65.4% (Jan 2026→Sep 2026) | -76.3% (Jun 2024→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
SHAK (Shake Shack, Inc.) USD 67.88 +0.06% · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) USD 12.46 -3.78% · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor) USD 112.44 -1.70% · JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.) USD 17.69 +0.17% · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) USD 54.68 -0.58% · ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) USD 8.02 -0.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/WING · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royalty revenue, franchise fees and other | $86.8M | 46.8% | +8.7% |
| Royalty revenue | $78.6M | 42.3% | +7.8% |
| Advertising fees | $64.5M | 34.8% | +4.2% |
| Advertising fees and related income | $64.5M | 34.8% | +4.2% |
| Company-owned restaurant sales | $34.2M | 18.4% | +5.3% |
| Franchise fees and other | $8.3M | 4.5% | +18.5% |
| Total revenue | $185.6M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 181.6% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "The Company is providing updated guidance for 2026: • A decline of 4% to 6% in domestic same store sales growth; • SG&A of between $140 - $143 million, which includes $3 million of restructuring charges related to corporate realignment; • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $24 million; and • Depreciation and amortization of approximately $33 million."
- "Additionally, the Company reiterates guidance for 2026: • Global unit growth rate of 15% to 16%; and • Interest expense, net of approximately $43 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.04 | $1.17 | -11.1% | $193.3M | 25 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.03 | $1.18 | -12.7% | $200.2M | 24 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.41 | $4.55 | -3.0% | $762.2M | 26 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.30 | $5.56 | -4.7% | $881.2M | 26 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±16.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±13.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 73.6% | ±16.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 64.1% | ±20.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 64.9% | ±24.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 64.9% | ±32.4% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 64.6% | ±40.6% |
| 2027-09-17 | 329 | 64.0% | ±46.9% |