# Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/WMS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS), nexqual.com/WMS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 130.92 (+0.71% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 130 · day 128.23–131.56 · 52w 122.84–179.32 · market cap $9.87B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.22B, net income $451M (14.0% margin), free cash flow $550M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 21.9x (avg 23.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 12.6x, net debt $1.45B.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.82 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 181.73 (range 145–207).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -7.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +24.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 1.79, revenue estimate $930M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.77B | $3.07B | $2.87B | $2.90B | $3.05B | $3.22B |
| Gross profit | $800M | $1.12B | $1.15B | $1.09B | $1.17B | — |
| Operating income | $412M | $719M | $732M | $657M | $619M | $668M |
| Net income | $271M | $507M | $510M | $450M | $426M | $451M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.15 | $6.08 | $6.45 | $5.76 | $5.44 | — |
| Free cash flow | $126M | $541M | $534M | $369M | $569M | $550M |
| Gross margin | 28.9% | 36.4% | 39.9% | 37.7% | 38.3% | — |
| Operating margin | 14.9% | 23.4% | 25.5% | 22.6% | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| Net margin | 9.8% | 16.5% | 17.7% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| Revenue growth | +39.7% | +10.9% | -6.4% | +1.0% | +5.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $20.1M | $217M | $490M | $463M | $223M | — |
| Total debt | $930M | $1.30B | $1.28B | $1.27B | $1.63B | — |
Fiscal years end Mar. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 21.9x · P/S 3.1x · EV/EBITDA 12.6x · EV/Sales 3.5x · P/FCF 17.9x · P/B 5.5x · FCF yield 5.57% · Earnings yield 4.57% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.58% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.29% · Net debt $1.45B · EV $11.3B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Mar 2026 25.2x, Mar 2025 18.9x, Mar 2024 26.7x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.82 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 181.73 (low 145, high 207).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $178 → $170 |
| 2026-10-09 | Oppenheimer | Target lowered | Outperform | $190 → $185 |
| 2026-10-06 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Buy | $190 |
| 2026-09-21 | Stephens & Co. | Reiterated | Overweight | $175 |
| 2026-08-25 | DA Davidson | Initiated | Buy | $190 |
| 2026-08-08 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $205 → $207 |
| 2026-08-07 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $170 → $178 |
| 2026-07-14 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $181 → $191 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -7.3% | +24.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -7.4% | +4.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.0% | 41.4% |
| Max drawdown | -28.3% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -47.6% (Aug 2022→Apr 2023) |

## Peers (Building Products & Equipment)
OC (Owens Corning Inc) USD 116.49 +3.80% · MAIR (Madison Air Solutions Corporati) USD 23.08 -0.60% · SPXC (SPX Technologies, Inc.) USD 160.01 -4.83% · LII (Lennox International, Inc.) USD 378.72 +3.37% · AWI (Armstrong World Industries Inc) USD 171.39 +1.57% · CSL (Carlisle Companies Incorporated) USD 352.6 +3.68%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/WMS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in WMS's own 10-K filed 2026-05-21 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604028/000160402826000019/wms-20260331.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) | "Concentrations of Risk - The Company has a large, active customer base of approximately 16,000 customers with two customers, Ferguson and Core & Main, each representing more than 10% of annual net sales." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stormwater | $820.9M | 82.0% | +24.3% |
| Wastewater | $208.9M | 20.9% | +7.2% |
| Total revenue | $1.00B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 102.9% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Pipe | $458.1M | 45.8% | +7.9% |
| Domestic Allied Products | $303.4M | 30.3% | +61.8% |
| International | $59.5M | 5.9% | +22.6% |
| Total revenue | $1.00B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 82% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2026-03-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $2.86B | 93.7% | +5.5% |
| Canada | $119.3M | 3.9% | -0.2% |
| Other Countries | $73.6M | 2.4% | -2.1% |
| Total revenue | $3.05B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-03-31: 25.8% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-05-21).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Net sales are expected to be in the range of $3.350 billion to $3.550 billion and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1.0 billion to $1.050 billion."
- "Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $200 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.79 | $1.87 | -4.4% | $930.4M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.15 | $1.37 | -15.7% | $789.2M | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-03-31) | $6.29 | $6.43 | -2.2% | $3.46B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-03-31) | $7.35 | $7.37 | -0.2% | $3.67B | 9 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±11.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 49.3% | ±11.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 41.7% | ±13.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 40.8% | ±20.5% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 39.2% | ±24.9% |