# X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XFOR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/XFOR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XFOR), nexqual.com/XFOR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 3.2 (+6.31% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 3.01 · day 2.96–3.28 · 52w 2.43–4.83 · market cap $317M · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $15.8M, net income -$90.1M (-568.8% margin) (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $463K; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($463K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $12K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 11.6 (range 10–13).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +3.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -97.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.19, revenue estimate $2.3M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0K | $0K | $0K | $2.6M | $35.1M | $15.8M |
| Gross profit | — | $0K | $0K | $1.8M | $29.4M | — |
| Operating income | -$85.1M | -$87.6M | -$108M | -$36.4M | -$86.9M | -$87.9M |
| Net income | -$88.7M | -$93.9M | -$101M | -$37.5M | -$79.2M | -$90.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$119.70 | -$45.60 | -$17.07 | -$5.59 | -$1.87 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$71.5M | -$77.2M | -$96.6M | -$131M | -$85.6M | — |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | 69.3% | 83.6% | — |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | -1400.0% | -247.4% | -554.7% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | -1440.4% | -225.6% | -568.8% |
| Revenue growth | -100.0% | — | — | — | +1250.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $81.8M | $122M | $114M | $102M | $253M | — |
| Total debt | $33.9M | $33.6M | $55.0M | $75.0M | $75.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 20.0x · EV/Sales 11.6x · P/B 2.0x · Earnings yield -28.41% · Net cash $133M · EV $184M

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Kirske David | Chief Financial Officer | 11,767 | $34K | 7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-12 | Volpone John | President | 24,576 | $109K | 8.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-12 | Craig Adam R | Executive Chairman | 47,436 | $211K | 12.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-30 | Kirske David | Chief Financial Officer | 8,543 | $36K | 4.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-12 | Kirske David | Chief Financial Officer | 16,961 | $73K | 8.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $12K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Craig Adam R | Executive Chairman | 4,600 | $12K | 2.58 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 11.6 (low 10, high 13).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Wells Fargo | Initiated | Overweight | $11 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +3.6% | -97.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +3.6% | -52.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 75.5% | 110.0% |
| Max drawdown | -47.5% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -99.0% (Nov 2021→Jul 2025) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 307.82 -2.21% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 90.9 +2.57% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.14 -3.28% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 258.92 +0.96% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.91 -0.81% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/XFOR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| License and other revenue | $6.4M | 73.1% | +2709.2% |
| Product revenue, net | $2.4M | 26.9% | +36.1% |
| Total revenue | $8.8M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2025-11-05)

- "These statements may be identified by the words "may," "will," "could," "would," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "intend," "believe," "estimate," "predict," "project," "potential," "continue," "target," or other similar terms or expressions that concern X4's expectations, strategy, plans, or intentions."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.19 | $-0.20 | -5.8% | $2.3M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.20 | $-0.21 | -5.9% | $2.3M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.67 | $-0.76 | -11.5% | $16.0M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.77 | $-0.91 | -16.0% | $11.6M | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±67.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±15.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 235.7% | ±67.7% |