# XP Inc. (XP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/XP · data as of 2026-10-23 16:23 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, XP Inc. (XP), nexqual.com/XP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 29.49 (+0.48% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 16:23 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 29.35 · day 28.89–29.79 · 52w 14.8–32.73 · market cap $15.0B · NMS

## Key facts
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold XP (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $2.4M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.4M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.77 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 28.58 (range 20.84–37.92).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +75.6% vs S&P 500 +14.7%; 5Y +2.1% vs S&P 500 +77.5%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-16, EPS estimate USD 2.75, revenue estimate $5.12B.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold XP. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Marks | Oaktree Capital | 1.34% | $50.7M | Reduced -1.7% |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 0.28% | $529M | Reduced -0.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Dos Santos Bruno Constantino Alexandre | Director | 123,257 | $2.4M | 7.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.77 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 28.58 (low 20.84, high 37.92).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $25 → $37 |
| 2026-10-06 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $26 → $38 |
| 2026-10-06 | Itau BBA | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $27 |
| 2026-09-29 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $23 → $25 |
| 2026-08-31 | Itau BBA | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $22 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +75.6% | +2.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.7% | +77.5% |
| Per year | +75.7% | +0.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.2% | 51.1% |
| Max drawdown | -34.1% (Feb 2026→Jun 2026) | -69.0% (Nov 2021→Apr 2023) |

## Peers (Capital Markets)
FUTU (Futu Holdings Limited) USD 100.73 +1.82% · BMNR (BitMine Immersion Technologies,) USD 22.61 +0.47% · JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.) USD 44.67 -2.14% · SF (Stifel Financial Corporation) USD 67.03 -1.21% · CRCL (Circle Internet Group, Inc.) USD 86.55 -0.09% · IREN (IREN LIMITED) USD 25.45 -0.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/XP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in XP's own 20-F filed 2026-04-29 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1787425/000207097926000182/xp-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Microsoft (MSFT) | "We rely on a number of external service providers for certain key market information and data, technology, processing and supporting functions, such as Microsoft, SAP and Oracle, among others." |
| Supplier | SAP (SAP) | "We rely on a number of external service providers for certain key market information and data, technology, processing and supporting functions, such as Microsoft, SAP and Oracle, among others." |
| Supplier | Oracle (ORCL) | "We rely on a number of external service providers for certain key market information and data, technology, processing and supporting functions, such as Microsoft, SAP and Oracle, among others." |
| Customer | B3 | "Any significant degradation or failure of our systems or the systems of third parties involved in the trading process (e.g., online and internet service providers, the systems of the B3, record keeping and data processin…" |
| Customer | XP CCTVM | "To the extent customers withdraw a substantial amount of their funds held in such customer accounts for other uses, XP CCTVM might experience liquidity constraints, requiring it to rapidly sell financial assets at a disc…" |
| Partner | Bermuda | "Following the XPart merger on October 1, 2021, we entered into an amended and restated registration rights agreement with XP Controle, GA Bermuda, ITB Holding, IUPAR and Itaúsa." |
| Partner | ITB Holding | "Following the XPart merger on October 1, 2021, we entered into an amended and restated registration rights agreement with XP Controle, GA Bermuda, ITB Holding, IUPAR and Itaúsa." |
| Competitor | Visa (V) | "Main product developments include: (1) retirement plans platform launched in 2019; (2) collateralized credit in 2020; (3) Visa Infinite credit cards in 2021; and (4) digital account, international investments platform an…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.75 | $2.71 | +1.6% | $5.12B | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.93 | $2.86 | +2.4% | $5.45B | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $10.90 | $10.66 | +2.3% | $20.10B | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $12.63 | $11.95 | +5.6% | $22.77B | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-16): ±23.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 190.4% | ±21.3% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 152.5% | ±24.0% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 127.7% | ±24.5% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 107.9% | ±23.8% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 108.0% | ±26.5% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 92.9% | ±25.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 84.2% | ±26.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 73.3% | ±27.7% |