# XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/XPEL · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, XPEL, Inc. (XPEL), nexqual.com/XPEL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 45.78 (+4.35% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 43.87 · day 44.21–46 · 52w 31.88–55.91 · market cap $1.26B · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $508M, net income $54.7M (10.8% margin), free cash flow -$2.9M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 23.1x (avg 26.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 16.9x, net debt $4.1M.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 61.67 (range 60–65).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +26.7% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y -39.7% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.62, revenue estimate $139M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-04
- Dividend: XPEL paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 15.38% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 14.7 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $259M | $324M | $396M | $420M | $476M | $508M |
| Gross profit | $92.7M | $128M | $162M | $177M | $201M | — |
| Operating income | $40.1M | $53.9M | $67.0M | $59.1M | $62.6M | $68.5M |
| Net income | $31.6M | $41.4M | $52.8M | $45.5M | $51.2M | $54.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.14 | $1.50 | $1.91 | $1.65 | $1.85 | — |
| Free cash flow | $11.5M | $4.1M | $31.0M | $41.1M | $62.9M | -$2.9M |
| Gross margin | 35.7% | 39.4% | 41.0% | 42.2% | 42.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 15.5% | 16.6% | 16.9% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.5% |
| Net margin | 12.2% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| Revenue growth | +63.1% | +25.0% | +22.3% | +6.1% | +13.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $9.6M | $8.1M | $11.6M | $22.1M | $50.9M | — |
| Total debt | $458K | $0K | $317K | $229K | $59K | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 23.1x · P/S 2.5x · EV/EBITDA 16.9x · EV/Sales 2.5x · P/B 4.1x · FCF yield -0.23% · Earnings yield 4.34% · Net debt $4.1M · EV $1.27B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 27.0x, Dec 2024 24.3x, Dec 2023 28.2x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 61.67 (low 60, high 65).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Freedom Broker | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $45 → $60 |
| 2026-08-06 | B. Riley Securities | Target raised | Buy | $55 → $65 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +26.7% | -39.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +26.9% | -9.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 40.4% | 52.8% |
| Max drawdown | -31.8% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -69.6% (Aug 2022→Apr 2025) |

## Dividends
XPEL paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
2,654,026 shares sold short, 15.38% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 2,555,804 shares (+3.8%). Days to cover: 14.7 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Auto Parts)
ATMU (Atmus Filtration Technologies I) USD 46.46 +3.04% · DORM (Dorman Products, Inc.) USD 133.67 +3.03% · GTX (Garrett Motion Inc.) USD 22.48 +0.67% · GNTX (Gentex Corporation) USD 20.26 +0.95% · LKQ (LKQ Corporation) USD 18.1 +5.29% · LEA (Lear Corporation) USD 117.38 +0.42%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/XPEL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product revenue | $111.7M | 78.1% | +17.8% |
| — Paint protection film (part of Product revenue) | $74.8M | 52.3% | +19.4% |
| — Window film (part of Product revenue) | $32.5M | 22.7% | +16.1% |
| — Other (part of Product revenue) | $4.4M | 3.1% | +5.3% |
| Service revenue | $31.4M | 21.9% | +4.9% |
| — Installation labor (part of Service revenue) | $25.3M | 17.7% | +12.8% |
| — Software (part of Service revenue) | $2.3M | 1.6% | +3.6% |
| — Cutbank credits (part of Service revenue) | $1.9M | 1.3% | -57.6% |
| — Other (part of Service revenue) | $1.9M | 1.3% | +144.5% |
| Total revenue | $143.1M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $94.4M | 66.0% | +11.5% |
| — United States (part of North America) | $78.6M | 54.9% | +11.7% |
| — Canada (part of North America) | $15.8M | 11.0% | +10.8% |
| Asia Pacific | $22.1M | 15.5% | +68.3% |
| — China (part of Asia Pacific) | $15.9M | 11.1% | +106.7% |
| — Asia Other (part of Asia Pacific) | $6.2M | 4.3% | +13.8% |
| EU, UK, and Africa | $17.0M | 11.9% | -2.3% |
| India and Middle East | $6.4M | 4.5% | -5.0% |
| Latin America | $3.2M | 2.2% | +12.6% |
| Total revenue | $143.1M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 3.4% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-27).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Third Quarter Outlook • The Company expects third quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $137 - $139 million."
- "Please see the information under "Forward-looking Statements" below regarding certain cautionary statements relating to our 2026 Third Quarter Outlook."
- "Full second quarter 2026 financial information will be included in the filing of the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission which is anticipated on or prior to August 7, 2026. 2 See "Non-GAAP Financial Measure" and "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measure" below."

Analysts expect $138.7M for the current quarter, +0.5% vs the guidance midpoint $138.0M. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767258/000176725826000071/xpelq22026earnings.htm

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.62 | $0.00 | +$0.62 | $138.7M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.57 | $0.00 | +$0.57 | $132.8M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.25 | $0.00 | +$2.25 | $532.0M | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.70 | $0.00 | +$2.70 | $588.5M | 1 |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.65 | $0.60 | Beat +8.3% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.37 | $0.36 | Beat +2.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.48 | $0.45 | Beat +6.7% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.47 | $0.52 | Miss −9.6% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Schedule 13G/A | Wasatch Advisors LP: 12.4% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767258/000081413326000134/0000814133-26-000134-index.htm |
| 2026-09-03 | Schedule 13G/A | The Vanguard Group: 0.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767258/000010290926002722/0000102909-26-002722-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767258/000176725826000074/0001767258-26-000074-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767258/000176725826000071/0001767258-26-000071-index.htm |
| 2026-07-31 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “(b) On July 30th, 2026, Mark Thornton notified the Board of Directors (the "Board") of XPEL, Inc. (the "Company") of his resignation as a member of the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Thornton's resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company's operations, policies, or practices. Mr. Thornton resigned as a result of a new policy adopted by his employer that prohibits him from serving on the Board. The Board thanks Mr. Thornton for his service and…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767258/000176725826000066/0001767258-26-000066-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.