# XPO, Inc. (XPO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/XPO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, XPO, Inc. (XPO), nexqual.com/XPO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 188.75 (+0.15% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 188.46 · day 186.95–191.63 · 52w 121.48–232.05 · market cap $22.1B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $8.57B, net income $404M (4.7% margin), free cash flow $588M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 54.7x (avg 48.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 20.2x, net debt $2.75B.
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold XPO (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $2.7M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.5M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 225.04 (range 115–275).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +50.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +271.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 1.57, revenue estimate $2.38B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.20B | $7.72B | $7.74B | $8.07B | $8.16B | $8.57B |
| Operating income | $312M | $377M | $438M | $660M | $656M | $752M |
| Net income | $336M | $666M | $189M | $387M | $316M | $404M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.93 | $5.76 | $1.60 | $3.23 | $2.64 | — |
| Free cash flow | $387M | $303M | -$839M | $19.0M | $329M | $588M |
| Operating margin | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% |
| Revenue growth | +16.8% | +7.2% | +0.3% | +4.2% | +1.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $228M | $460M | $412M | $246M | $310M | — |
| Total debt | $3.51B | $2.47B | $3.33B | $3.33B | $3.25B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 54.7x · P/S 2.6x · EV/EBITDA 20.2x · EV/Sales 2.9x · P/FCF 37.6x · P/B 11.3x · FCF yield 2.66% · Earnings yield 1.83% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.97% · Net debt $2.75B · EV $24.8B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 51.2x, Dec 2024 40.7x, Dec 2023 54.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold XPO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 4.84% | $498M | Reduced -17.4% |
| Mason Hawkins | Southeastern Asset Management | 0.07% | $1.3M | Unchanged |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $697K | New position |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | <0.01% | $674K | Reduced -11.4% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Bates David J. | Chief Operating Officer | 2,615 | $465K | 4% | Yes (adopted June 15, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-10-01 | Wismans Kyle | Chief Financial Officer | 750 | $132K | 1.5% | Yes (adopted June 15, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-14 | Bates David J. | Chief Operating Officer | 2,615 | $469K | 3.9% | Yes (adopted June 15, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-14 | Wismans Kyle | Chief Financial Officer | 750 | $134K | 1.5% | Yes (adopted June 15, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-10…2026-08-11 | Brown Christopher Michael | Chief Accounting Officer | 5,000 | $1.0M | 13.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-28 | Landry Allison | Director | 2,400 | $517K | 33.1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 225.04 (low 115, high 275).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $257 → $230 |
| 2026-10-07 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $240 → $220 |
| 2026-10-07 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $220 → $224 |
| 2026-10-05 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $214 → $205 |
| 2026-10-02 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Neutral | $225 → $194 |
| 2026-10-02 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $228 → $230 |
| 2026-09-10 | Bernstein | Initiated | Outperform | $244 |
| 2026-09-08 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $221 → $220 |
| 2026-09-04 | B of A Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $248 → $228 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $226 → $221 |
| 2026-07-31 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $224 → $228 |
| 2026-07-31 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $236 → $238 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +50.5% | +271.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +50.7% | +29.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.7% | 48.2% |
| Max drawdown | -24.2% (Apr 2026→Sep 2026) | -49.9% (Oct 2021→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Trucking)
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.) USD 189.89 +0.52% · KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Hol) USD 62.52 -1.08% · TFII (TFI International Inc.) USD 115 +2.10% · SAIA (Saia, Inc.) USD 344.5 +1.67% · SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.) USD 31.12 +0.65% · RXO (RXO, Inc.) USD 28.92 +0.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/XPO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North American LTL | $1.43B | 60.6% | +15.2% |
| European Transportation | $927.0M | 39.4% | +10.2% |
| Total revenue | $2.35B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.40B | 59.4% | +15.3% |
| France | $364.0M | 15.5% | +8.3% |
| United Kingdom | $327.0M | 13.9% | +16.4% |
| Europe (excluding France and United Kingdom) | $235.0M | 10.0% | +4.9% |
| North America (excluding United States) | $30.0M | 1.3% | +11.1% |
| Total revenue | $2.35B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.57 | $1.34 | +17.6% | $2.38B | 24 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.24 | $1.09 | +13.6% | $2.25B | 23 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $5.50 | $4.91 | +12.0% | $9.08B | 25 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $6.57 | $6.03 | +8.8% | $9.58B | 25 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±10.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 45.1% | ±10.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 41.4% | ±13.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 39.7% | ±15.3% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 42.2% | ±19.4% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 41.3% | ±21.0% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 41.6% | ±25.2% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 41.5% | ±26.7% |
| 2027-09-17 | 329 | 41.9% | ±31.7% |