# Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/XPOF · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF), nexqual.com/XPOF" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 4.2 (-2.10% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 4.29 · day 4.19–4.4 · 52w 3.57–9.25 · market cap $208M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $288M, net income -$42.6M (-14.8% margin), free cash flow -$8.1M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $964K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.88 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 5.6 (range 4.5–8).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -40.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -73.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.15, revenue estimate $63.0M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $155M | $243M | $318M | $320M | $315M | $288M |
| Gross profit | — | $197M | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -$30.8M | $13.3M | $34.9M | -$53.6M | $19.8M | $17.9M |
| Net income | -$18.8M | $1.2M | -$4.0M | -$67.7M | -$38.7M | -$42.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.85 | -$0.88 | -$0.52 | -$2.27 | -$1.47 | — |
| Free cash flow | $10.8M | $43.1M | $25.3M | $7.0M | $24.7M | -$8.1M |
| Gross margin | — | 80.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | -19.9% | 5.5% | 11.0% | -16.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| Net margin | -12.1% | 0.5% | -1.3% | -21.1% | -12.3% | -14.8% |
| Revenue growth | +45.5% | +56.8% | +30.7% | +0.8% | -1.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $21.3M | $37.4M | $37.1M | $32.7M | $45.9M | — |
| Total debt | $133M | $138M | $329M | $352M | $525M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 25.2x · EV/Sales 2.5x · FCF yield -3.88% · Earnings yield -20.48% · Net debt $497M · EV $705M

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $964K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19…2026-05-20 | Voss Capital, Lp |  | 200,005 | $964K | 4.82 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.88 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 5.6 (low 4.5, high 8).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $7 → $4.5 |
| 2026-08-10 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Neutral | $7 → $5 |
| 2026-08-10 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Neutral | $6 → $5 |
| 2026-08-07 | Guggenheim | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral |  |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -40.1% | -73.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -40.2% | -23.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 90.6% | 83.9% |
| Max drawdown | -59.4% (Feb 2026→Sep 2026) | -89.0% (Apr 2023→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Leisure)
FNKO (Funko, Inc.) USD 7.04 +2.25% · JOUT (Johnson Outdoors Inc.) USD 45.44 +4.10% · LUCK (LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORP) USD 4.49 -4.26% · TRON (Tron Inc.) USD 1.5 +20.97% · FUN (Six Flags Entertainment Corpora) USD 7.24 +2.40% · PRKS (United Parks & Resorts Inc.) USD 31.08 +1.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/XPOF · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in XPOF's own 10-K filed 2026-03-04 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1802156/000180215626000016/xpof-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | California | "We depend on a single third-party supplier, Fit Commerce ("FC"), to exclusively manufacture, distribute, and manage most retail products sold in our franchised studios and through related online channels under the Retail…" |
| Customer | ClubReady | "We and franchisees in the North America Region, rely heavily on information systems provided by ClubReady, LLC ("ClubReady"), including the point-of-sale processing systems in our franchised studios and other information…" |
| Partner | HPS Investment Partners | "On December 8, 2025 (the "Closing Date"), we entered into a Financing Agreement with HPS Investment Partners LLC, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the lenders party thereto (the "Credit Agreement"), whic…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franchise | $44.0M | 66.7% | -3.0% |
| Franchise Marketing Fund Revenue | $8.7M | 13.2% | -7.7% |
| Equipment Revenue | $7.1M | 10.7% | -25.8% |
| Service Other | $5.6M | 8.6% | -10.0% |
| Merchandise Revenue | $542,000 | 0.8% | -90.3% |
| Total revenue | $66.0M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The Company is revising its full year 2026 outlook, which compares to 2025 results as follows: • Net new studio openings of approximately 150, or a decrease of 25%."
- "This compares to previous guidance of 150 to 170; 2 • North America system-wide sales 1 in the range of $1.70 billion to $1.75 billion, or a decrease of 1% at the midpoint."
- "This compares to previous guidance of $1.72 billion to $1.80 billion; • Revenue in the range of $250.0 million to $260.0 million, representing a decrease of 19% at the midpoint."
- "This compares to previous guidance of $260.0 million to $270.0 million; and • Adjusted EBITDA 5 in the range of $91.0 million to $97.0 million, representing a decrease of 16% at the midpoint."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.15 | $0.17 | -10.8% | $63.0M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.18 | $0.20 | -9.7% | $65.5M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.31 | $0.42 | -27.2% | $255.2M | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.65 | $0.78 | -16.3% | $268.8M | 3 |