# Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/YMM · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM), nexqual.com/YMM" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 8.35 (-1.76% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 8.5 · day 8.27–8.54 · 52w 7.46–13.4 · market cap $8.73B · NYQ

## Key facts
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold YMM (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.87 on a 1–5 scale) (15 analysts), mean target USD 12.54 (range 9.08–16.34).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -33.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -46.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-16, EPS estimate USD 1.34, revenue estimate $3.31B.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold YMM. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Davis | Davis Advisors | 0.96% | $224M | Reduced -3.9% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.87 on a 1–5 scale), 15 analysts; mean target USD 12.54 (low 9.08, high 16.34).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral → Overweight | $8.6 → $10 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -33.8% | -46.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -33.9% | -11.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.1% | 59.6% |
| Max drawdown | -42.7% (Oct 2025→Jun 2026) | -70.6% (Oct 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
IDCC (InterDigital, Inc.) USD 332.06 -0.78% · PCOR (Procore Technologies, Inc.) USD 62.29 +2.27% · PCTY (Paylocity Holding Corporation) USD 177.67 +4.93% · TTAN (ServiceTitan, Inc.) USD 85.2 +3.50% · DSGX (The Descartes Systems Group Inc) USD 94 +1.74% · APPF (AppFolio, Inc.) USD 217.33 +0.06%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/YMM · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in YMM's own 20-F filed 2026-04-14 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Morespark | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Partner | Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Partner | Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Partner | Redview Capital Investment VI | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Partner | Eastern Bell International XXIV | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Partner | Pantheon Access Co-Investment Program | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Partner | GGV Capital VI | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Partner | GGV Capital VI Plus | "Parties to the agreement include over 80 legal entities that held our preferred shares prior to our IPO as follows: (i) Morespark Limited, (ii) Hillhouse TCA TRK Holdings Limited, (iii) Hillhouse TRK-III Holdings Limited…" |
| Related party | Plus Automation | "As of December 31, 2025, We had paid US$18 million to Plus Automation, Inc., with the remaining consideration of RMB14,058 recorded in amounts due to related parties." |

Other companies that name YMM in their own reports (relationship from YMM's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | JOYY Inc. (JOYY) | 20-F 2026-04-28 | "Mr. Ji is the cofounder and managing partner of All-Stars Investment Limited, which focuses on investing in technology leaders, such as Didi, Xiaomi, Full Truck Alliance and Grab." |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.34 | $1.22 | +9.7% | $3.31B | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.11 | $1.24 | -10.2% | $2.99B | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.98 | $4.92 | +1.2% | $12.41B | 11 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.83 | $5.80 | +0.6% | $13.50B | 12 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-11-16): ±13.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 33.6% | ±13.5% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 39.6% | ±21.6% |