# YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/YPF · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF), nexqual.com/YPF" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 49.17 (-2.38% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 50.37 · day 47.96–50.83 · 52w 25.1–57.87 · market cap $19.3B · NYQ

## Key facts
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold YPF (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $10K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($10K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $537K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.92 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 61.97 (range 50–78).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +82.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +1000.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 1.82, revenue estimate $8.57T.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold YPF. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Marks | Oaktree Capital | 1.19% | $45.1M | Added +11.8% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Maquieyra Martin | Director | 218 | $10K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $537K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Marin Horacio Daniel | Chairman of the Board/ CEO | 2,840 | $132K | 46.35 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-02 | Farina Matias Osvaldo | VP Upstream | 8,875 | $401K | 45.22 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-29 | Maquieyra Martin | Director | 77 | $4K | 54.44 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.92 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 61.97 (low 50, high 78).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $61.5 → $66 |
| 2026-08-27 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $48 → $55 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +82.9% | +1000.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +83.2% | +61.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 42.7% | 55.7% |
| Max drawdown | -21.2% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) | -47.9% (Jan 2025→Sep 2025) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas Integrated)
EC (Ecopetrol S.A.) USD 17.01 -1.33% · NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) USD 80.93 +2.04% · CVE (Cenovus Energy Inc) USD 32.01 -3.38% · IMO (Imperial Oil Limited) USD 131.84 -2.75% · E (ENI S.p.A.) USD 59.53 +0.56% · SU (Suncor Energy  Inc.) USD 77.41 -2.04%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/YPF · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in YPF's own 20-F filed 2026-03-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/904851/000119312526126363/d95578d20f.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Argentina | "Regarding the natural gas market, the revenues we obtain from selling natural gas in Argentina to certain segments, particularly residential clients and generation plants have been subject to government regulations and t…" |
| Supplier | Aerolineas Argentinas | "In 2025, our Board of Directors approved a supply agreement of jet fuel with Aerolineas Argentinas S.A. for three years." |
| Supplier | YPF Gas | "The LPG unit does not directly supply the retail market, which is supplied by our associate, YPF Gas S.A. ("YPF Gas"), among other LPG fractionators." |
| Partner | Argentine | "On January 28, 2022, the Argentine government reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund ("IMF"), approved through Law No. 27,668, to refinance US$ 44.0 billion of debt incurred between 2018 and 2019 under…" |
| Partner | Mega | "The LNG and Integrated Gas business segment performs activities related to: (i) natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream business segment; (ii) the separation …" |
| Partner | Santa Fe Bio | "In 2025, the company Santa Fe Bio S.A. was created, a joint venture with Essential Energy S.A., in which we hold a 50% equity stake, which plans to build an advanced technology biorefinery to produce aviation fuels from …" |
| Partner | Essential Energy | "In 2025, the company Santa Fe Bio S.A. was created, a joint venture with Essential Energy S.A., in which we hold a 50% equity stake, which plans to build an advanced technology biorefinery to produce aviation fuels from …" |
| Partner | METHANEX CORP (MEOH) | "In August 2024, YPF entered into a muti-year term firm agreement with Methanex that allows the supply of the remaining natural gas volumes originally committed under the GSA 2001 until December 2025 and the natural gas v…" |
| Partner | Profertil | "During 2025, and until December 2025, our activities in the fertilizer market included the production, storage, distribution and sale of fertilizers through our joint venture Profertil S.A. ("Profertil"), one of the mark…" |
| Partner | Buenos Aires | "We and several other industrial companies operating in La Plata City, in the Buenos Aires Province, have entered into a community emergency response agreement with three municipalities and local hospitals, firefighters a…" |
| Partner | Oil Spill Response | "Additionally, in 2025, we continued our agreement with Oil Spill Response Ltd. which provides support to our Oil Spill Contingency Plan, evaluating and reducing the possible environmental impact caused by an oil spill in…" |
| Partner | Wild Well Control | "We also keep our agreement with Wild Well Control Inc. and Gabino Lockwood up to date, in order to be prepared for possible blow out events." |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.82 | $1.54 | +18.2% | $8.57T | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.07 | $0.93 | +15.1% | $7.83T | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $7.15 | $5.77 | +23.9% | $33.14T | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.49 | $5.79 | -5.3% | $30.94T | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±10.0%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 44.3% | ±10.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 42.7% | ±13.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 42.2% | ±16.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 40.7% | ±20.4% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 39.2% | ±21.4% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 42.5% | ±25.4% |
| 2027-08-20 | 301 | 43.5% | ±31.0% |
| 2027-11-19 | 392 | 45.8% | ±37.0% |