# York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/YSS · data as of 2026-10-29 13:35 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS), nexqual.com/YSS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.6 (+0.00% today) · US market open, as of October 29, 2026 at 13:35 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 6.6 · day 6.59–6.67 · 52w 5.52–44.54 · market cap $907M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $18.4M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($18.4M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.57 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 13.79 (range 8–18).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -80.4% vs S&P 500 +12.9%; 5Y -80.6% vs S&P 500 +78.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-12, EPS estimate USD -0.23, revenue estimate $90.0M.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 2.3x · EV/Sales 1.3x · P/B 0.5x · FCF yield -32.12% · Earnings yield -20.97% · Net cash $387M · EV $520M

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06…2026-08-07 | Blackrock Portfolio Management Llc |  | 401,674 | $4.5M | 2.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-04…2026-08-05 | Blackrock Portfolio Management Llc |  | 661,999 | $10.0M | 3.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-31…2026-08-03 | Blackrock Portfolio Management Llc |  | 49,328 | $745K | 0.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-29…2026-07-30 | Blackrock Portfolio Management Llc |  | 204,213 | $3.1M | 1.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.57 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 13.79 (low 8, high 18).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $9 → $8 |
| 2026-10-15 | Piper Sandler | Initiated | Neutral | $9 |
| 2026-10-09 | Barclays | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $11 |
| 2026-09-15 | Guggenheim | Initiated | Neutral |  |
| 2026-09-10 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $33 → $13 |
| 2026-08-31 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $35 → $17 |
| 2026-08-20 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Hold | $26 → $14 |
| 2026-08-18 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Buy | $32 → $15 |
| 2026-08-18 | Canaccord Genuity | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $36 → $13.5 |
| 2026-08-17 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Overweight → Neutral | $38 → $17 |
| 2026-08-14 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $33 → $18 |
| 2026-07-29 | Raymond James | Downgrade | Outperform → Market Perform |  |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2026-01-29) | 5Y (from 2026-01-26) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -80.4% | -80.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +12.9% | +78.8% |
| Per year | — | — |
| Volatility (annualized) | 113.5% | 101.9% |
| Max drawdown | -87.2% (Apr 2026→Oct 2026) | -84.4% (Apr 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
SARO (StandardAero, Inc.) USD 22.8 +2.63% · KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solut) USD 41.61 +1.07% · CAE (CAE Inc) USD 25.89 +0.50% · DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.) USD 37.99 +7.00% · HII (Huntington Ingalls Industries, ) USD 321.5 +15.13% · MOG-B (Moog Inc.) USD 350.17 -1.24%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/YSS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in YSS's own 10-K filed 2026-03-20 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2086587/000162828026019923/yorkspacesystemsinc10-k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | ATLAS Space Operations | "The acquisitions of Emergent, ATLAS and Orbion are emblematic of our strategy: targeting companies that not only enhance our technical capabilities but also embed us more deeply into our customers' mission workflows." |
| Partner | Redwire Corp (RDW) | "Since September 2023, General McConville has been an Operating Partner at AE Industrial Partners, and has served on the board of Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW) since October 2025 and on the board of BETA Technologies, I…" |
| Partner | BETA Technologies, Inc. (BETA) | "Since September 2023, General McConville has been an Operating Partner at AE Industrial Partners, and has served on the board of Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW) since October 2025 and on the board of BETA Technologies, I…" |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 91% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-14).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-13)

- "As a result, we are bringing down our full year 2026 revenue guidance."
- "That said, the contracts we've secured this year under the new acquisition approach are the onboarding positions that we expect to convert to significantly larger operational programs, and we expect them to be meaningful drivers of growth in 2027 and beyond." Second quarter 2026 Company Results Revenue increased $8.7 million, or 10%, to $92.5 million."
- "Business outlook as of August 13, 2026 York Space Systems expects revenue for the full year 2026 to be in the range of $375 million to $405 million."
- "The majority of the decrease in guidance is due to the removal of the new business revenue in 2026 given the shift in government acquisition methodologies."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.23 | $0.00 | −$0.23 | $90.0M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.21 | $0.10 | −$0.30 | $94.5M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.58 | $-0.56 | −$1.02 | $393.4M | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.37 | $0.53 | −$0.90 | $495.7M | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-12): ±31.3%; last 3 reports averaged ±10.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 136.6% | ±31.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 108.9% | ±36.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 105.4% | ±42.7% |
| 2027-02-19 | 113 | 114.0% | ±54.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 141 | 99.3% | ±52.6% |
| 2027-04-16 | 169 | 111.2% | ±63.3% |
| 2027-05-21 | 204 | 116.0% | ±71.3% |
| 2027-07-16 | 260 | 116.8% | ±79.6% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.06 | −$0.12 | Beat +50.0% | -1.0% |
| May 14, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.68 | −$0.11 | Miss −518.2% | -14.9% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.25 | −$0.18 | Miss −38.9% | +15.8% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Schedule 13G | BlackRock, Inc.: 5.4% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2086587/000201238326003950/0002012383-26-003950-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | AeroEquity GP, LLC, Michael Robert Greene: 24.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2086587/000110465926097095/0001104659-26-097095-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2086587/000162828026056874/0001628280-26-056874-index.htm |
| 2026-08-13 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2086587/000162828026056704/0001628280-26-056704-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “On August 5, 2026, York Space Systems Inc. (the "Company") announced the appointment of Brian D. Frantz, its Chief Accounting Officer, as Interim Chief Financial Officer, effective August 14, 2026. In his position as Interim Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Frantz will act as the Company's "principal financial officer" while a formal search process to identify and appoint a permanent Chief Financial Officer is conducted. Mr. Frantz, age 63, has served as our Chief Accounting Officer since September 2025. From April…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2086587/000162828026053314/0001628280-26-053314-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.