# ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ZTO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO), nexqual.com/ZTO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 20.06 (+0.96% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 19.87 · day 19.8–20.09 · 52w 18.18–26.2 · market cap $15.0B · NYQ

## Key facts
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ZTO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (17 analysts), mean target USD 27.53 (range 21.74–34.79).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +6.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -27.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-17, EPS estimate USD 3.21, revenue estimate $14.0B.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold ZTO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Pzena | Pzena Investment Management | 0.48% | $164M | Reduced -1.9% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 17 analysts; mean target USD 27.53 (low 21.74, high 34.79).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Goldman Sachs | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $25 → $22 |
| 2026-09-03 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Overweight → Neutral | $29 → $22 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +6.4% | -27.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +6.5% | -6.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 24.6% | 36.4% |
| Max drawdown | -25.1% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -49.5% (Nov 2021→Jan 2024) |

## Peers (Integrated Freight & Logistics)
FDXF (FedEx Freight Holding Company, ) USD 111.02 +2.84% · CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.) USD 142.31 +0.96% · JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services, I) USD 230.59 +0.87% · EXPD (Expeditors International of Was) USD 196.19 -0.42% · LSTR (Landstar System, Inc.) USD 169.39 -1.10% · GXO (GXO Logistics, Inc.) USD 48.91 +0.99%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ZTO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.21 | $3.66 | -12.3% | $14.04B | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.42 | $4.15 | -17.7% | $16.40B | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $13.54 | $13.81 | -2.0% | $57.79B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $15.02 | $15.40 | -2.5% | $62.60B | 12 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-17): ±10.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 41.7% | ±10.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 45.8% | ±14.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 33.2% | ±12.7% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 34.5% | ±19.2% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 39.6% | ±24.9% |