Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Stock Price & Analysis
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) closed at USD 13.06 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, up 2.59% on the day. The US market is currently closed; this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 12.73; the Oct 15, 2026 session ranged USD 12.75–13.2 on volume of 2,061,832 shares. Market capitalization is $1.29B, with a 52-week range of USD 5.66–15.92 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/GO.md
Key facts (GO)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 4, 2026): revenue $4.74B, net income -$381M (-8.0% margin), free cash flow $12.1M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold GO (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $29K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($16K).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 10.92 (range 6–15).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.0% vs S&P 500 +18.1%; 5Y -44.6% vs S&P 500 +85.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.15, revenue estimate $1.17B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (GO)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.08B | $3.58B | $3.97B | $4.37B | $4.69B | $4.74B |
| Gross profit | $949M | $1.09B | $1.24B | $1.32B | $1.42B | — |
| Operating income | $89.1M | $95.0M | $126M | $78.3M | -$222M | -$374M |
| Net income | $62.3M | $65.1M | $79.4M | $39.5M | -$225M | -$381M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.63 | $0.65 | $0.79 | $0.40 | -$2.30 | — |
| Free cash flow | $42.2M | $55.0M | $134M | -$74.6M | $23.8M | $12.1M |
| Gross margin | 30.8% | 30.5% | 31.3% | 30.2% | 30.3% | — |
| Operating margin | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | -4.7% | -7.9% |
| Net margin | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | -4.8% | -8.0% |
| Revenue growth | -1.8% | +16.2% | +10.9% | +10.1% | +7.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $140M | $103M | $115M | $62.8M | $69.6M | — |
| Total debt | $460M | $380M | $293M | $478M | $493M | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 4, 2026) (GO)
P/S 0.3x · EV/Sales 0.4x · P/FCF 106.9x · P/B 1.6x · FCF yield 0.94% · Earnings yield -29.46% · Net debt $431M · EV $1.73B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 39.4x, Dec 2023 34.2x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (GO)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold GO. Change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.02% | $9.8M | New position |
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (GO)
1 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Kerr Frank Michael | See Remarks | 1,432 | $16K | 2.6% | No |
| 2026-04-01 | Bortner Andrea Renee | See Remarks | 1,851 | $13K | 1.5% | Yes (adopted November 10, 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Analysts (GO)
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 10.92 (low 6, high 15).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | B of A Securities | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $12.5 → $15 |
| 2026-08-17 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $10 → $11.5 |
| 2026-08-13 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Neutral | $9 → $12 |
| 2026-08-13 | Telsey Advisory Group | Target raised | Market Perform | $9 → $12 |
| 2026-08-13 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $7 → $11 |
| 2026-08-13 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $9 → $11 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (GO)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-16) | 5Y (from 2021-10-11) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.0% | -44.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +18.1% | +85.1% |
| Per year | -13.0% | -11.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 56.3% | 46.5% |
| Max drawdown | -63.3% (Oct 2025→Mar 2026) | -87.3% (Jul 2022→Mar 2026) |
Key Statistics (as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC)
| Price | USD 13.06 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 2.59% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 12.73 |
| Open | USD 12.75 |
| Day Range | USD 12.75 – 13.2 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 5.66 – 15.92 |
| Volume | 2,061,832 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.29B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (GO)
Nexqual's technical model rates GO "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 2 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 68.75 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 11.47) |
| MACD | 0.33 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (GO)
Wall Street analysts rate GO "Hold" based on 14 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 10.92 (range USD 6–15), per Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 14 |
| Mean Target | USD 10.92 |
| High Target | USD 15 |
| Low Target | USD 6 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 1 / 12 / 1 |
Earnings (GO)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-03 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.15 |
| Revenue Estimate | $1.17B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.2 vs est 0.12 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.05 vs est 0.02 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.19 vs est 0.21 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.21 vs est 0.19 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (GO)
| Total Revenue | $4.74B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +1.10% |
| Gross Margin | +29.99% |
| Operating Margin | +1.78% |
| Profit Margin | -8.04% |
| ROE | -38.06% |
| Debt / Equity | 2.27 |
| Current Ratio | 1.29 |
| Total Cash | $74.20M |
| Total Debt | $1.85B |
| Free Cash Flow (fiscal year ended Jan 2026, SEC 10-K) | $23.80M (0.5% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Financial Health Score (GO)
Nexqual rates Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +7% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 30%, operating 2% |
| Balance Sheet | Weak — $74M cash vs $1.85B debt |
| Cash Flow | Mixed — FCF $24M (FY ended Jan 2026, 10-K), slim 0.5% margin |
| Efficiency | Critical — ROE -38%, ROA 1.4% |
Ownership (GO)
| Insider Ownership | +6.12% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +122.16% |
| Shares Outstanding | 99.08M |
| Float | 87.82M |
| Short % of Float | +32.18% |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Leadership (GO)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is led by Jason Potter (age 53), President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Jason Potter (age 53) |
|---|---|
| Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | Ian D. Ferry |
| Senior Vice President of Strategic Finance & Investor Relations | Nicolo Cottarelli |
| Senior Vice President of Stores, Sales & Merchandising | Jon Decker |
| Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer | Jim Porterfield |
Major Backers & Investors (GO)
Notable institutional backers of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. include T. Rowe Price, TR PRICE-Price (T.Rowe) U.S. Small-Cap Value Equity Trust, J. Goldman & Co., L.P., according to Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price | 30.7% |
| TR PRICE-Price (T.Rowe) U.S. Small-Cap Value Equity Trust | 5.13% |
| J. Goldman & Co., L.P. | 4.85% |
| Marshall Wace LLP | 4.2% |
| American Century ETF Trust-Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | 3.54% |
| Millennium Management | 2.95% |
| Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 2.76% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 23.94% |
| Vanguard Group | 15.55% |
| State Street | 4.5% |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
From Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-04)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Regulations We and the IOs are subject to regulation by various federal agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration (the "FDA"), the Federal Trade Commission (the "FTC"), the U.S.
- We are focused on advancing our model through optimizing our assortment and digitizing our business with more integrated end-to-end technology.
- Our flexible buying model allows us to offer quality, name-brand opportunistic products at prices generally 40% to 70% below those of conventional retailers.
- Our differentiated model for buying and selling delivers a "WOW!" shopping experience, which generates customer excitement, inspires loyalty and supports profitable sales growth: • How we buy: We source quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products opportunistically through a centralized purchasing team that leverages long-standing and actively managed supplier relationships to acquire merchandise at significant discounts.
Partnerships
- We have entered into an Operator Agreement with each IO, which grants that IO a license to operate a particular Grocery Outlet Bargain Market retail store and to use our trademarks, service marks, trade names, brand names and logos under our brand standards.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets, Incorporated | USD 86.78 | ▲ 1.7% |
| YSWY | Yesway, Inc. | USD 22.72 | ▲ 4.99% |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cott | USD 30.6 | ▲ 1.12% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | USD 44.32 | ▲ 0.86% |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme, Inc. | USD 3.1 | ▲ 0.98% |
| DDL | Dingdong (Cayman) Limited | USD 2.14 | ▼ 2.73% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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