Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) Stock Price & Analysis
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) closed at USD 13.79 on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, up 1.10% on the day. The US market is currently closed; this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 13.64; the Oct 28, 2026 session ranged USD 13.69–13.89 on volume of 982,721 shares. Market capitalization is $1.16B, with a 52-week range of USD 12.71–17.91 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/MSDL.md
Key facts (MSDL)
- Valuation: P/E 19.4x (avg 10.2x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), net debt $1.90B.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.57 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 15.32 (range 14–16.25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -8.5% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y -8.3% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.44, revenue estimate $87.5M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (MSDL)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $83.3M | $48.5M | $231M | $216M | $122M | $59.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.67 | $0.79 | $3.11 | $2.43 | $1.40 | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $74.2M | $81.2M | $69.7M | $72.4M | $94.4M | — |
| Total debt | — | $1.52B | $1.50B | $1.97B | $2.09B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (MSDL)
P/E 19.4x · P/B 0.7x · Earnings yield 5.15% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 14.52% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.38% · Net debt $1.90B · EV $3.06B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 11.8x, Dec 2024 8.5x.
Analysts (MSDL)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.57 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 15.32 (low 14, high 16.25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $16.25 → $15.5 |
| 2026-07-02 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $14 → $14.5 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (MSDL)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2024-01-22) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -8.5% | -8.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | -8.6% | -3.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 21.1% | 21.0% |
| Max drawdown | -18.9% (Dec 2025→Mar 2026) | -29.7% (Jun 2024→Mar 2026) |
MSDL earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.45 | $0.45 | In line | +2.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.47 | $0.46 | Beat +2.2% | -1.3% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.49 | $0.49 | In line | -5.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.50 | $0.50 | In line | -2.3% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -3.0% |
| May 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -2.3% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -2.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +2.0% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).
MSDL recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement “On September 26, 2026, Kevin Shannon notified Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (the "Company") of his intention to resign from his position as a Director of the Company, effective as of such date. Mr. Shannon's resignation is not the result of any disagreement with the Company.” |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Regulation FD disclosure |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation “On July 9, 2026, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (the "Company") and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (the "Trustee"), entered into a Fourth Supplemental Indenture (the "Fourth Supplemental Indenture") to the Indenture between the Company and the Trustee, dated February 11, 2022 (the "Base Indenture," and together with the Fourth Supplemental Indenture, the "Indenture"). The Fourth Supplemental Indenture relates to the Company's issuance of $ 350.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.100%…” |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement “On June 29, 2026, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (the "Company") entered into an underwriting agreement (the "Underwriting Agreement") by and among the Company, MS Capital Partners Adviser Inc. (the "Adviser"), and Truist Securities, Inc., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., MUFG Securities Americas Inc., RBC Capital Markets, LLC and SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters, in connection with the issuance and sale of $ 350,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the…” |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed; each form links to the filing. Insider Form 4 filings are listed in the insider sections.
MSDL suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Capstone Lending | “Capstone Lending LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, formed as a joint venture ("Capstone Lending") between us and an institutional partner (the "JV Partner"), commenced operations on January 2, 2026 and operates under a limited liability company agreement.” |
| Partner | Truist Securities | “We have entered into a senior secured revolving credit agreement with the Company, as borrower, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto, Truist Bank, as administrative agent, and Truist Securities, Inc., as joint lead arranger and sole book runner (as amended, restated or otherwise modified from time to time, the "Truist Credit Facility").” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026.
MSDL analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.44 | $0.46 | -4.3% | $87.5M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.45 | $0.46 | -2.0% | $89.0M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $1.80 | $1.83 | -1.4% | $354.4M | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $1.83 | $1.83 | -0.0% | $358.9M | 7 |
MSDL options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±8.0% (±$1.11) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 5, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±2.6% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 23 | 51.7% | ±8.0% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 51 | 31.8% | ±9.0% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 79 | 31.9% | ±12.9% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 142 | 16.3% | ±9.1% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 232 | 28.9% | ±18.9% |
30-day implied volatility 24% vs 24.6% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.4. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC)
| Price | USD 13.79 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 1.10% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 13.64 |
| Open | USD 13.68 |
| Day Range | USD 13.69 – 13.89 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 12.71 – 17.91 |
| Volume | 982,721 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.16B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (MSDL)
Nexqual's technical model rates MSDL "SELL" based on 2 bullish and 4 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 54.13 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 14.24) |
| MACD | -0.22 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (MSDL)
Wall Street analysts rate MSDL "Hold" based on 7 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 15.32 (range USD 14–16.25), per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 7 |
| Mean Target | USD 15.32 |
| High Target | USD 16.25 |
| Low Target | USD 14 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 2 / 5 / 0 |
Earnings (MSDL)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.44 |
| Revenue Estimate | $87.52M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.45 vs est 0.45 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.47 vs est 0.46 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.49 vs est 0.49 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.5 vs est 0.5 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (MSDL)
| Total Revenue | $374.16M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -10.80% |
| Gross Margin | +100.00% |
| Operating Margin | +79.95% |
| Profit Margin | +15.97% |
| ROE | +3.48% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.2 |
| Current Ratio | 1.52 |
| Total Cash | $57.46M |
| Total Debt | $1.98B |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
Financial Health Score (MSDL)
Nexqual rates Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
| Growth | Weak — Revenue -5% YoY (annual), declining |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Operating margin 80% |
| Balance Sheet | Mixed — $80M cash and investments vs $1.98B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $151M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Weak — ROE 4%, ROA 1.6% (last 4 quarters, SEC) |
Ownership (MSDL)
| Insider Ownership | +0.60% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +35.39% |
| Shares Outstanding | 84.11M |
| Short % of Float | +5.62% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
Leadership (MSDL)
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is led by Michael Occi, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
| CEO & Director | Michael Occi |
|---|---|
| Co- President & COO | Orit Mizrachi |
| Co-President | Jeffrey M. Day |
| Chief Financial Officer | David Pessah |
Major Backers & Investors (MSDL)
Notable institutional backers of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund include Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG, Van Eck Associates Corporation, according to Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 18.69% |
| UBS Group AG | 3.07% |
| Van Eck Associates Corporation | 2.39% |
| Generali Asset Management Spa Sgr | 2.18% |
| VanEck ETF Trust-VanEck BDC Income ETF | 1.7% |
| Lunate Capital Ltd. | 1.31% |
| Russell Investments Group, Ltd. | 1.26% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | 1.06% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC.
From Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-26)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our Adviser, an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Morgan Stanley, was established in 2007 and serves as the investment adviser for various funds, accounts and strategies, including the funds and accounts on the MS Private Credit platform, including the MS BDCs, and managed approximately $26.2 billion in committed capital1 as of February 1, 2026.
- All of the foregoing may reduce the number of investment opportunities available to us and may create conflicts of interest in allocating investment opportunities among us and the Affiliated Investment Accounts, including any proprietary accounts of Morgan Stanley.
- We also believe that contractual reporting requirements allow us to diagnose and respond to borrower underperformance typically before value materially erodes.
- We believe the large volume of potential lending opportunities and scale of the MS Private Credit origination and due diligence platform allows us to increase investment selectivity and potentially enhance risk-adjusted returns.
Partnerships
- MS Private Credit may also from time to time create new or successor Affiliated Investment Accounts, which may include proprietary accounts of Morgan Stanley, that may compete with us for investment opportunities or overlap in terms of investment strategy and may present similar conflicts of interest.
- The Adviser has in the past and may in the future enter into one or more contractual arrangements with third parties ("Syndication Partners"), including certain third parties that may or may not be advisory clients of the Adviser, whereby, subject to certain investment criteria, the Adviser would agree to present such third parties with certain co-investment opportunities alongside the MS Private Credit platform, including us.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Laws and regulations regulating insurance activities are complex and could negatively affect the business of our portfolio companies in the insurance services industry, which could reduce their profitability and potentially limit their growth.
- New or modified laws or regulations governing our or Morgan Stanley's operations may adversely affect our business.
- The use of third-party and open-source AI tools (if any) can pose additional risks relating to data protection and information security, including the potential exposure of confidential information to unauthorized recipients and the misuse of intellectual property, which could adversely affect the Company.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXSL | Blackstone Secured Lending Fund | USD 23.2 | ▲ 0.39% |
| PDI | PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund | USD 14.1 | ▲ 0.21% |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | USD 111.87 | ▲ 1.12% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | USD 393.24 | ▲ 0.32% |
| SEIC | SEI Investments Company | USD 103.2 | ▲ 0.31% |
| IVZ | Invesco Ltd | USD 28.68 | ▲ 0.88% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 29, 2026 at 06:32 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt