Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Stock Price & Analysis
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) closed at USD 46.69 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 4.87% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 44.52; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 44.48–46.78 on volume of 1,720,286 shares. Market capitalization is $2.82B, with a 52-week range of USD 37.89–65.2 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/AAP.md
Key facts (AAP)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 18, 2026): revenue $8.62B, net income $84.0M (1.0% margin), free cash flow $23.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 33.6x (avg 93.7x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.3x, net debt $267M.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$107M vs operating income $236M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈16.2x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 16.3% effective rate).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AAP (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.12 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 49.95 (range 33–70).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -77.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.79, revenue estimate $2.04B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (AAP)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.0B | $9.15B | $9.21B | $9.09B | $8.60B | $8.62B |
| Gross profit | $4.92B | $4.23B | $3.86B | $3.41B | $3.73B | — |
| Operating income | $822M | $525M | $39.0M | -$713M | -$43.0M | $236M |
| Net income | $597M | $464M | $30.0M | -$336M | $44.0M | $84.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.25 | $7.65 | $0.50 | -$5.61 | $0.73 | — |
| Free cash flow | $817M | $338M | $61.0M | -$96.0M | -$298M | $23.0M |
| Gross margin | 44.8% | 46.3% | 41.9% | 37.5% | 43.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 7.5% | 5.7% | 0.4% | -7.8% | -0.5% | 2.7% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | 5.1% | 0.3% | -3.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Revenue growth | +8.8% | -16.8% | +0.7% | -1.2% | -5.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $588M | $271M | $488M | $1.87B | $3.12B | — |
| Total debt | $1.03B | $1.37B | $1.79B | $1.79B | $3.41B | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 18, 2026) (AAP)
P/E 33.6x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈16.2x · P/S 0.3x · EV/EBITDA 6.3x · EV/Sales 0.4x · P/FCF 122.6x · P/B 1.3x · FCF yield 0.82% · Earnings yield 2.98% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.13% · Net debt $267M · EV $3.09B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jan 2026 66.1x, Dec 2023 121.2x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (AAP)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AAP. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Pzena | Pzena Investment Management | 0.80% | $273M | Added +2.1% |
| Tweedy Browne | 0.13% | $1.7M | Added +12.2% |
Analysts (AAP)
Consensus Hold (mean 3.12 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 49.95 (low 33, high 70).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $50 → $45 |
| 2026-08-21 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $57 → $45 |
| 2026-08-21 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Sell | $54 → $40 |
| 2026-08-21 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Hold | $62 → $43 |
| 2026-08-21 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $65 → $55 |
| 2026-08-21 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $65 → $47 |
| 2026-08-21 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $59 → $50 |
| 2026-08-21 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $60 → $50 |
| 2026-08-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $65 → $52 |
| 2026-08-21 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Hold | $61 → $45 |
| 2026-08-21 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $67 → $52 |
| 2026-08-21 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Neutral | $58 → $48 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (AAP)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.3% | -77.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -13.4% | -25.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.9% | 55.1% |
| Max drawdown | -38.3% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -86.0% (Dec 2021→May 2025) |
AAP analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.79 | $0.86 | -8.7% | $2.04B | 22 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.44 | $0.54 | -17.4% | $1.87B | 21 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $2.99 | $2.94 | +1.7% | $8.53B | 24 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $3.89 | $4.01 | -2.9% | $8.72B | 23 |
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC)
| Price | USD 46.69 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 4.87% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 44.52 |
| Open | USD 44.57 |
| Day Range | USD 44.48 – 46.78 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 37.89 – 65.2 |
| Volume | 1,720,286 shares |
| Market Cap | $2.82B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (AAP)
Nexqual's technical model rates AAP "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 2 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 66.63 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 43.87) |
| MACD | 0.41 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (AAP)
Wall Street analysts rate AAP "Hold" based on 25 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 49.95 (range USD 33–70), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 25 |
| Mean Target | USD 49.95 |
| High Target | USD 70 |
| Low Target | USD 33 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 2 / 20 / 3 |
Earnings (AAP)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.79 |
| Revenue Estimate | $2.04B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 1.03 vs est 0.8 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.77 vs est 0.44 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.86 vs est 0.41 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.92 vs est 0.74 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (AAP)
| Total Revenue | $8.62B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -0.50% |
| Gross Margin | +45.14% |
| Operating Margin | +5.55% |
| Profit Margin | +0.99% |
| ROE | +4.89% |
| Debt / Equity | 2.49 |
| Current Ratio | 1.75 |
| Total Cash | $3.12B |
| Total Debt | $5.63B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jul 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $23.00M (0.3% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
Financial Health Score (AAP)
Nexqual rates Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
| Growth | Weak — Revenue -5% YoY (annual), declining |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 45%, operating 6% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Weak — $3.12B cash and investments vs $3.39B debt (Jul 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Mixed — FCF $23M (last 4 quarters to Jul 2026, SEC), slim 0.3% margin |
| Efficiency | Weak — ROE 5%, ROA 2.1% |
Ownership (AAP)
| Insider Ownership | +0.75% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +128.11% |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.40M |
| Float | 60.13M |
| Short % of Float | +30.03% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
Leadership (AAP)
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is led by Shane M. O'Kelly, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Shane M. O'Kelly |
|---|---|
| Executive VP & CFO | Ryan P. Grimsland |
| Senior Vice President & CTO | Kunal Das |
| Vice President of Investor Relations | Lavesh Hemnani |
| Senior Vice President of Professional | Anthony Sarlanis |
Major Backers & Investors (AAP)
Notable institutional backers of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. include Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc, Pzena Investment Management LLC, T. Rowe Price, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 13.96% |
| Pzena Investment Management LLC | 7.27% |
| T. Rowe Price | 7.1% |
| Federated Hermes, Inc. | 4.97% |
| TR PRICE-Price (T.Rowe) Mid-Cap Value Equity Trust | 4.56% |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners, Inc. | 4.01% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 15.48% |
| Vanguard Group | 10.69% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 5.07% |
| State Street | 4.22% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies I | USD 44.75 | ▼ 0.73% |
| DORM | Dorman Products, Inc. | USD 127.49 | ▲ 3.34% |
| GTX | Garrett Motion Inc. | USD 22 | ▼ 8.07% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | USD 21.74 | ▲ 3.52% |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | USD 22.47 | ▲ 5.1% |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | USD 118.61 | ▲ 0.61% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:25 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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