Certara, Inc. (CERT) Stock Price & Analysis
Certara, Inc. (CERT) closed at USD 10.09 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 0.88% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 10.18; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 9.86–10.31 on volume of 2,365,307 shares. Market capitalization is $1.54B, with a 52-week range of USD 4.45–12.94 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/CERT.md
Key facts (CERT)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $408M, net income -$68.4M (-16.7% margin), free cash flow $80.4M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CERT (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 9.17 (range 7–12).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -19.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -73.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.09, revenue estimate $92.0M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (CERT)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $286M | $336M | $354M | $385M | $419M | $408M |
| Gross profit | $174M | $203M | $213M | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $13.6M | $32.5M | -$40.8M | -$1.7M | $21.0M | -$658K |
| Net income | -$13.3M | $14.7M | -$55.4M | -$12.1M | -$1.6M | -$68.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.09 | $0.09 | -$0.35 | -$0.08 | -$0.01 | — |
| Free cash flow | $59.2M | $91.1M | $81.0M | $78.8M | $94.6M | $80.4M |
| Gross margin | 61.0% | 60.5% | 60.2% | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 4.7% | 9.7% | -11.5% | -0.4% | 5.0% | -0.2% |
| Net margin | -4.6% | 4.4% | -15.6% | -3.1% | -0.4% | -16.7% |
| Revenue growth | +17.5% | +17.3% | +5.6% | +8.7% | +8.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $186M | $237M | $235M | $179M | $189M | — |
| Total debt | $295M | $293M | $291M | $295M | $293M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (CERT)
P/S 3.8x · EV/EBITDA 26.0x · EV/Sales 4.0x · P/FCF 19.1x · P/B 1.6x · FCF yield 5.22% · Earnings yield -4.44% · Buyback yield (TTM) 4.87% · Net debt $108M · EV $1.65B
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (CERT)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold CERT. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.01% | $3.4M | New position |
Analysts (CERT)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 9.17 (low 7, high 12).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $9 → $12 |
| 2026-10-13 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $9 → $11 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $7.5 → $9 |
| 2026-09-30 | UBS | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $10 |
| 2026-08-05 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $6.5 → $7.5 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (CERT)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -19.3% | -73.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -19.3% | -23.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 61.2% | 59.7% |
| Max drawdown | -64.6% (Oct 2025→May 2026) | -89.6% (Nov 2021→May 2026) |
CERT revenue by region (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $62.1M | 66.6% | -1.6% |
| EMEA | $20.7M | 22.2% | -2.0% |
| Asia Pacific | $10.5M | 11.2% | +29.1% |
| Total revenue | $93.3M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
CERT analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.09 | $0.10 | -13.2% | $92.0M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.09 | $0.10 | -5.4% | $94.3M | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.34 | $0.38 | -11.1% | $379.1M | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.39 | $0.41 | -5.2% | $388.8M | 11 |
CERT options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±29.1% (±$2.92) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 5, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±11% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 88.7% | ±29.1% |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 119 | 98.5% | ±41.6% |
| Nov 19, 2027 | 392 | 69.6% | ±47.4% |
30-day implied volatility 65.2% vs 55.8% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC)
| Price | USD 10.09 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 0.88% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 10.18 |
| Open | USD 10.14 |
| Day Range | USD 9.86 – 10.31 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 4.45 – 12.94 |
| Volume | 2,365,307 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.54B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (CERT)
Nexqual's technical model rates CERT "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 1 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 63.43 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 8.69) |
| MACD | 0.36 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (CERT)
Wall Street analysts rate CERT "Hold" based on 13 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 9.17 (range USD 7–12), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 13 |
| Mean Target | USD 9.17 |
| High Target | USD 12 |
| Low Target | USD 7 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 4 / 9 / 0 |
Earnings (CERT)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.09 |
| Revenue Estimate | $91.98M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.08 vs est 0.09 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.09 vs est 0.11 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.09 vs est 0.1 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.14 vs est 0.11 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (CERT)
| Total Revenue | $421.75M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +1.00% |
| Gross Margin | +61.61% |
| Operating Margin | -0.21% |
| Profit Margin | -16.22% |
| ROE | -2.21% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.31 |
| Current Ratio | 2.55 |
| Total Cash | $184.87M |
| Total Debt | $301.94M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $80.39M (19.7% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Financial Health Score (CERT)
Nexqual rates Certara, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +9% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 62%, operating -0% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $184M cash and investments vs $292M debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Strong — FCF $80M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), 20% margin |
| Efficiency | Critical — ROE -2%, ROA 0.8% |
Ownership (CERT)
| Insider Ownership | +2.73% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +111.53% |
| Shares Outstanding | 152.54M |
| Float | 111.95M |
| Short % of Float | +28.45% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Leadership (CERT)
Certara, Inc. is led by Jon Resnick, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| CEO & Director | Jon Resnick |
|---|---|
| President of Certara Predictive Technologies | Robert P. Aspbury |
| President of Drug Development Solutions | Adrian K. McKemey |
| President & Chief Commercial Officer | Julien Perrier |
| Interim CFO, Senior VP of Finance, Treasurer and Principal Financial & Accounting Officer | Faiz Mohammed |
Major Backers & Investors (CERT)
Notable institutional backers of Certara, Inc. include Deerfield Management Company, L.P, Haveli Investment Management LLC, Jefferies Financial Group Inc., according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Deerfield Management Company, L.P | 4.93% |
| Haveli Investment Management LLC | 4.85% |
| Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | 4.65% |
| Wasatch Advisors LP | 3.62% |
| Touchstone Strategic TRT-Touchstone Strategic TRT-Touchstone Small Com | 1.44% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 12.34% |
| Vanguard Group | 8.09% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 3.95% |
| State Street | 3.16% |
| Geode Capital | 2.06% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
From Certara, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-26)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our software products are licensed by more than 160,000 users and are also used by 20 global drug regulatory agencies, including the FDA, Japan's Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (the "PMDA"), and China's Center for Drug Evaluation (the "CDE") within the National Medical Product Administration (the "NMPA").
- Since 2013, we have acquired 21 companies, 14 of which include software or technology, with such key acquisitions including Simcyp, the core of our mechanistic biosimulation platform, Pinnacle 21, which enhances our software offerings in data management and the regulatory drug approval process, and Vyasa, which brings state-of-the-art AI capabilities to our end-to-end platform.
- The pharmaceutical industry spends more than $290 billion annually on research and development.
- Phoenix has four modules that support pharmacometrics and workflow. •Phoenix WinNonlin – A platform for non-compartmental analysis, PK/PD, and TK modeling with a regulatory proven 30-year history and extensive use across the biopharmaceutics industry. •Phoenix Cloud – Our next generation cloud version of Phoenix, which provides a secured and validated Certara Amazon Web Services ("AWS") workspace allowing for much quicker transit time from compliant data sources.
Partnerships
- With greater investment dollars being spent and increasing competition in the race to develop novel medicines, the speed and efficiency with which drugs are developed and brought to market have never been more critical.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Changes or delays in government regulation, executive action or administrative decision-making relating to the biopharmaceutical industry have decreased and could continue to decrease the need for some of the services we provide.
- Our failure to comply with trade compliance and economic sanctions laws and regulations of the United States and other applicable international jurisdictions could materially adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.
- Current and future litigation against us, which may arise in the ordinary course of our business, could be costly and time consuming to defend.
- Our insurance coverage may not be sufficient to avoid material impact on our financial position resulting from claims or liabilities against us, and we may not be able to obtain insurance coverage on attractive terms, or at all, in the future.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| OMCL | Omnicell, Inc. | USD 37.1 | ▲ 2.09% |
| SDGR | Schrodinger, Inc. | USD 22.6 | ▼ 5.44% |
| GDRX | GoodRx Holdings, Inc. | USD 3.62 | ▲ 1.4% |
| OMDA | Omada Health, Inc. | USD 18.98 | ▼ 3.46% |
| TDOC | Teladoc Health, Inc. | USD 6.32 | ▲ 0.32% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | USD 34.59 | ▲ 3.22% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt