Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Price & Analysis

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) closed at USD 19.87 on Thursday, October 29, 2026, up 0.10% on the day. The US market is currently closed (after-hours); this is not a live price.

The prior close was USD 19.85; the Oct 29, 2026 session ranged USD 19.5–20.74 on volume of 1,984,485 shares. Market capitalization is $3.33B, with a 52-week range of USD 15.99–62.17 (NGM). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/FLY.md

Key facts (FLY)

• Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $287M, net income -$363M (-126.6% margin), free cash flow -$326M (SEC filings).
• Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $384M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($384M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
• Analysts: Buy (mean 2.27 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 38 (range 25–50).
• Total return with dividends: 1Y -18.7% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -60.4% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
• Next earnings: 2026-11-10, EPS estimate USD -0.5, revenue estimate $103M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-10
• Dividend: FLY paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
• Short interest: 13.30% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 3.8 days to cover.

Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (FLY)

Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (FLY)

P/S 11.6x · EV/Sales 9.5x · P/B 2.7x · FCF yield -9.82% · Earnings yield -10.93% · Net cash $608M · EV $2.72B

Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (FLY)

2 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.

% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).

Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

Analysts (FLY)

Consensus Buy (mean 2.27 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 38 (low 25, high 50).

Rating changes, last 120 days:

Total return (dividends reinvested) (FLY)

Dividends (FLY)

FLY paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

Short interest (FLY)

13,480,890 shares sold short, 13.30% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 11,105,681 shares (+21.4%). Days to cover: 3.8 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

FLY earnings history and stock reaction

EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

FLY recent SEC filings (last 120 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed; each form links to the filing. Insider Form 4 filings are listed in the insider sections.

FLY revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)

As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).

FLY suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)

Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Mar 20, 2026.

Companies that name FLY in their SEC reports

FLY customer concentration

In the period ended Jun 30, 2026, 4 direct customers each accounted for at least 10% (41.3%, 16.2%, 14.6%, 1%) of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Aug 11, 2026. The company does not name them.

FLY company outlook (results filed Aug 11, 2026)

• “Full-Year Guidance • Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.”

Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.

FLY analyst estimates and revisions

FLY options: expected move

Options price a move of about ±18.4% (±$3.80) by Nov 13, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 10, 2026; the earnings reaction alone is priced at about ±13.0%. Over the last 5 reports the stock moved ±5.8% on average.

30-day implied volatility 99.4% vs 72.8% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.63. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.

Key Statistics (as of October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC)

Technical Analysis (FLY)

Nexqual's technical model rates FLY "SELL" based on 2 bullish and 4 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Analyst Ratings (FLY)

Wall Street analysts rate FLY "Buy" based on 11 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 38 (range USD 25–50), per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Earnings (FLY)

Recent Earnings History

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Financials & Fundamentals (FLY)

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Financial Health Score (FLY)

Nexqual rates Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Ownership (FLY)

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Leadership (FLY)

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is led by Darren Ma, Chief Financial Officer, per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Major Backers & Investors (FLY)

Notable institutional backers of Firefly Aerospace Inc. include Ae Industrial Partners, LP , Van Eck Associates Corporation, JPMorgan, according to Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

Active Investors

Index Funds (Passive)

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC.

From Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-20)

Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)

• As one of the only U.S.-based commercial companies currently equipped to provide reliable access to launch, transit, and operations in space, we are leading the way in end-to-end services for the rapidly expanding defense, space exploration, and commercial space markets.
• Our research and development ("R&D"), iterative testing, and scalable manufacturing processes are vertically integrated and streamlined.
• We have utilized this proprietary technology to develop all of our rocket engines in-house.
• As part of our end-to-end space services, Elytra offers robust on-orbit solutions and responsive defense capabilities when and where customers need them.

Partnerships

• Northrop Grumman: We have an exclusive partnership with Northrop Grumman for the development of Eclipse.
• Supported by a $50 million equity investment from Northrop Grumman, Eclipse builds on our Alpha rocket technology and Northrop Grumman's Antares rocket, with the first partnership of its kind between the best of legacy and new space.

Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)

• Our business is subject to various regulatory risks that could adversely affect our operations.
• Our business is subject to federal, state, and international laws regarding data protection, privacy, and information security, as well as confidentiality obligations under various agreements, and our actual or perceived failure to comply with such obligations could damage our reputation, expose us to litigation risk and materially adversely affect our business and operating results.
• We may become involved in litigation that may materially adversely affect us.
• Our business and operations could be negatively affected by securities litigation or stockholder activism, which could cause us to incur significant expense, hinder execution of business and growth strategy, and impact our stock price.

Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.

Peers & Related Stocks

Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 29, 2026 at 21:53 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.

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