The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Stock Price & Analysis
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) closed at USD 29.33 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, down 4.80% on the day. The US market is currently closed; this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 30.81; the Oct 15, 2026 session ranged USD 29.15–30.58 on volume of 1,845,238 shares. Market capitalization is $3.86B, with a 52-week range of USD 12.51–33.17 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/GEO.md
Key facts (GEO)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.83B, net income $292M (10.3% margin), free cash flow $26.4M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.2x (avg 46.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.8x, net debt $1.46B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $1.0M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.0M).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 39 (range 36–40).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +75.2% vs S&P 500 +18.1%; 5Y +252.9% vs S&P 500 +85.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.35, revenue estimate $773M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (GEO)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.26B | $2.38B | $2.41B | $2.42B | $2.63B | $2.83B |
| Operating income | $288M | $384M | $352M | $310M | $257M | $316M |
| Net income | $77.4M | $172M | $107M | $32.0M | $254M | $292M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.58 | $1.17 | $0.72 | $0.22 | $1.82 | — |
| Free cash flow | $213M | $198M | $205M | $164M | -$125M | $26.4M |
| Operating margin | 12.8% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% |
| Net margin | 3.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% |
| Revenue growth | -4.0% | +5.3% | +1.5% | +0.4% | +8.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $506M | $95.1M | $94.0M | $76.9M | $69.0M | — |
| Total debt | $2.64B | $1.98B | $1.78B | $1.71B | $1.65B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (GEO)
P/E 13.2x · P/S 1.4x · EV/EBITDA 11.8x · EV/Sales 1.9x · P/FCF 146.0x · P/B 2.5x · FCF yield 0.68% · Earnings yield 7.55% · Buyback yield (TTM) 4.60% · Net debt $1.46B · EV $5.32B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.9x, Dec 2024 117.3x, Dec 2023 12.5x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (GEO)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Albence Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | 11,797 | $371K | 11.9% | No |
| 2026-08-21 | Brack Ronald A. | See Remarks | 7,000 | $224K | 8.9% | No |
| 2026-08-20 | Albence Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | 10,000 | $317K | 9.1% | No |
| 2026-08-13 | Koren Lindsay L. | Director | 3,500 | $110K | 19.3% | No |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Analysts (GEO)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 39 (low 36, high 40).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Jones Trading | Maintained | Buy | $40 |
| 2026-08-06 | Jones Trading | Target raised | Buy | $33 → $40 |
| 2026-06-26 | Northland Capital Markets | Target raised | Outperform | $30 → $40 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (GEO)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-16) | 5Y (from 2021-10-11) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +75.2% | +252.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +18.1% | +85.1% |
| Per year | +75.5% | +28.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 48.7% | 51.5% |
| Max drawdown | -28.6% (Jan 2026→Feb 2026) | -62.5% (Jan 2025→Feb 2026) |
Key Statistics (as of October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC)
| Price | USD 29.33 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 4.80% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 30.81 |
| Open | USD 30.59 |
| Day Range | USD 29.15 – 30.58 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 12.51 – 33.17 |
| Volume | 1,845,238 shares |
| Market Cap | $3.86B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (GEO)
Nexqual's technical model rates GEO "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 40.57 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 31.23) |
| MACD | -0.12 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (GEO)
Wall Street analysts rate GEO "Buy" based on 3 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 39 (range USD 36–40), per Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 3 |
| Mean Target | USD 39 |
| High Target | USD 40 |
| Low Target | USD 36 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 3 / 0 / 0 |
Earnings (GEO)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.35 |
| Revenue Estimate | $772.73M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.37 vs est 0.29 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.29 vs est 0.2 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.25 vs est 0.25 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.25 vs est 0.23 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (GEO)
| Total Revenue | $2.83B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +15.10% |
| Gross Margin | +26.04% |
| Operating Margin | +13.89% |
| Profit Margin | +10.31% |
| ROE | +20.13% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.06 |
| Current Ratio | 1.65 |
| Total Cash | $54.99M |
| Total Debt | $1.61B |
| Free Cash Flow (fiscal year ended Dec 2025, SEC 10-K) | -$124.90M (-4.7% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
Financial Health Score (GEO)
Nexqual rates The GEO Group, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +9% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 26%, operating 14% |
| Balance Sheet | Mixed — $55M cash vs $1.61B debt |
| Cash Flow | Weak — FCF negative: -$125M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K), burning cash |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 20%, ROA 6.0% |
Ownership (GEO)
| Insider Ownership | +5.19% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +94.57% |
| Shares Outstanding | 131.62M |
| Float | 112.43M |
| Short % of Float | +10.53% |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
Leadership (GEO)
The GEO Group, Inc. is led by George C. Zoley (age 75), Founder, Chairman & CEO, per Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
| Founder, Chairman & CEO | George C. Zoley (age 75) |
|---|---|
| Senior Vice President of Secure Services | Paul Laird (age 59) |
| Senior VP & CFO | Shayn P. March (age 59) |
| Senior Vice President of Human Resources | Christopher D. Ryan (age 62) |
Major Backers & Investors (GEO)
Notable institutional backers of The GEO Group, Inc. include Pentwater Capital Management Lp, UBS Group AG, Goldman Sachs, according to Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Pentwater Capital Management Lp | 8.04% |
| UBS Group AG | 5.81% |
| Goldman Sachs | 4.18% |
| Continental General Insurance Co | 3.74% |
| Rubric Capital Management LP | 3.14% |
| Fidelity | 1.06% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 25.02% |
| Vanguard Group | 17.82% |
| State Street | 4.69% |
| HSBC Holdings PLC | 3.04% |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC | Brady Corporation | USD 84.03 | ▼ 1.18% |
| BCO | Brinks Company (The) | USD 104.42 | ▲ 0.28% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | USD 31.23 | ▼ 8.23% |
| ADT | ADT Inc. | USD 6.86 | ▲ 3.78% |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | USD 181.79 | ▲ 0% |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies, In | USD 35.96 | ▼ 0.61% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 16, 2026 at 05:21 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt