Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Stock Price & Analysis
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) is trading at USD 14.03, up 0.86% today, as of October 23, 2026 at 18:13 UTC (US market open; quotes may be delayed), according to Nexqual market data.
GPRE last closed at USD 13.91; today's session has ranged USD 13.76–14.21 on volume of 343,381 shares. Market capitalization is $983.44M, with a 52-week range of USD 9.29–19.65 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/GPRE.md
Key facts (GPRE)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.83B, net income $124M (6.8% margin), free cash flow $127M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.9x, EV/EBITDA 5.4x, net debt $271M.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$68.4M vs operating income $136M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈5.1x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 0% effective rate).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 18.5 (range 15–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +32.9% vs S&P 500 +14.5%; 5Y -63.0% vs S&P 500 +77.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.62, revenue estimate $530M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (GPRE)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.83B | $3.66B | $3.30B | $2.46B | $2.09B | $1.83B |
| Gross profit | $202M | $113M | $165M | $130M | $137M | — |
| Operating income | $25.5M | -$98.9M | -$61.6M | -$47.5M | -$67.2M | $136M |
| Net income | -$66.0M | -$127M | -$93.4M | -$82.5M | -$121M | $124M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.41 | -$2.29 | -$1.59 | -$1.29 | -$1.80 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$183M | -$143M | -$51.7M | -$125M | $73.7M | $127M |
| Gross margin | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 0.9% | -2.7% | -1.9% | -1.9% | -3.2% | 7.4% |
| Net margin | -2.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -3.4% | -5.8% | 6.8% |
| Revenue growth | +47.0% | +29.6% | -10.0% | -25.4% | -14.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $551M | $445M | — | — | $182M | — |
| Total debt | $559M | $504M | $499M | $438M | $374M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (GPRE)
P/E 7.9x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈5.1x · P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 5.4x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/FCF 7.7x · P/B 1.1x · FCF yield 12.95% · Earnings yield 12.60% · Net debt $271M · EV $1.25B
Analysts (GPRE)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 18.5 (low 15, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $12 → $20 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (GPRE)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +32.9% | -63.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.5% | +77.1% |
| Per year | +32.9% | -18.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 56.9% | 55.8% |
| Max drawdown | -27.7% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -91.9% (Nov 2021→Apr 2025) |
GPRE revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethanol Production | $45.5M | 10.2% | -27.8% |
| Agribusiness & Energy Services | $465,000 | 0.1% | -86.7% |
| Total revenue | $446.2M | 100% | — |
GPRE revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | $29.7M | 6.6% | -24.1% |
| Distillers grains | $15.8M | 3.5% | -33.4% |
| Total revenue | $446.2M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
GPRE suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Eco-Energy | “Our ethanol is marketed by Eco-Energy LLC to local, regional, national and international customers.” |
| Partner | Equilon Enterprises | “In July 2023, we announced a technology collaboration with Equilon Enterprises LLC, which allows us to use FQT's precision separation and processing technology with Shell Fiber Conversion Technology.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026.
GPRE customer concentration
In the period ended Jun 30, 2026, a single direct customer accounted for 74% of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. The company does not name it.
GPRE company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “The forward-looking statements in this press release speak only as of the date they are made and the company assumes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by securities and other applicable laws.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
GPRE analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.62 | $0.51 | +20.3% | $530.4M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.39 | $0.23 | +67.1% | $508.8M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $2.20 | $1.76 | +25.0% | $1.89B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $1.69 | $1.43 | +18.3% | $1.99B | 4 |
GPRE options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±14.4% (±$2.00) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 4, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±10.5% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 63.8% | ±14.4% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 61.0% | ±19.2% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 56.4% | ±22.6% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 59.9% | ±30.4% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 237 | 57.6% | ±37.0% |
30-day implied volatility 55.7% vs 35.9% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.19. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC)
| Price | USD 14.03 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 0.86% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 13.91 |
| Open | USD 14.19 |
| Day Range | USD 13.76 – 14.21 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 9.29 – 19.65 |
| Volume | 343,381 shares |
| Market Cap | $983.44M |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (GPRE)
Nexqual's technical model rates GPRE "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 128 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 38.36 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 14.99) |
| MACD | -0.29 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (GPRE)
Wall Street analysts rate GPRE "Hold" based on 6 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 18.5 (range USD 15–20), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 6 |
| Mean Target | USD 18.5 |
| High Target | USD 20 |
| Low Target | USD 15 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 3 / 3 / 0 |
Earnings (GPRE)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-04 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.62 |
| Revenue Estimate | $530.43M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.83 vs est 0.64 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.42 vs est 0.12 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD -0.12 vs est 0.05 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.08 vs est -0.03 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (GPRE)
| Total Revenue | $1.83B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -19.30% |
| Gross Margin | +16.04% |
| Operating Margin | +15.21% |
| Profit Margin | +6.78% |
| ROE | +15.47% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.63 |
| Current Ratio | 1.99 |
| Total Cash | $185.38M |
| Total Debt | $548.63M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $127.39M (7.0% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
Financial Health Score (GPRE)
Nexqual rates Green Plains Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
| Growth | Critical — Revenue -15% YoY (annual), sharp decline |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 16%, operating 15% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Solid — $185M cash and investments vs $457M debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — FCF $127M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), 7% margin |
| Efficiency | Solid — ROE 15%, ROA 4.1% |
Ownership (GPRE)
| Insider Ownership | +1.85% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +118.49% |
| Shares Outstanding | 70.10M |
| Float | 68.92M |
| Short % of Float | +20.59% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
Leadership (GPRE)
Green Plains Inc. is led by Chris G. Osowski, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Chris G. Osowski |
|---|---|
| Senior Vice President of Operations | Trent Collins |
| Chief Financial Officer | Ann Reis |
| Executive Vice President of Human Resources | Mark A. Hudak |
| Executive Vice President of Product Marketing & Innovation | Leslie van der Meulen |
Major Backers & Investors (GPRE)
Notable institutional backers of Green Plains Inc. include Goldman Sachs, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC, Ancora Advisors, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 5.74% |
| Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC | 5.56% |
| Ancora Advisors, LLC | 3.89% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | 3.64% |
| BNP Paribas Financial Markets | 3.24% |
| GMO TRUST-GMO Resources Fund | 3.02% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 14.53% |
| Vanguard Group | 7.15% |
| State Street | 5.35% |
| Geode Capital | 2.96% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC.
From Green Plains Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-10)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Eco-Energy, LLC has also agreed to handle certain back office duties related to the ethanol marketing and logistics across the company's platform, providing end-to-end support to optimize value, expand market access and improve supply chain efficiency.
- Our internally developed operating margin management system allows us to monitor commodity price risk exposure in the spot market and on the forward curve at each of our operations and helps us to lock in favorable margins, when available, or if appropriate, temporarily reduce production during periods of compressed margins.
- Access to diversified markets allows us to sell product to customers offering the highest net price.
- We are one of the largest consolidated owners of ethanol plants in the United States.
Partnerships
- On April 16, 2025, the company entered into an ethanol marketing agreement with Eco-Energy, LLC.
- On April 11, 2025, the company entered into a Cooperation Agreement with Ancora Holdings Group, LLC, a long-term shareholder, which outlines certain compositional changes to the Board, and provides for a standstill, voting commitment and other customary provisions.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Risks Related to Carbon Capture and Sequestration Projects, and 45Z Production Tax Credits, Including Operational, Regulatory, and Market Uncertainties
- Compliance with evolving environmental, health and safety laws and regulations, particularly those related to climate change, could be costly.
- Compliance with and changes in tax laws could adversely affect our performance.
- Climate change, environmental, social and corporate governance issues and uncertainty regarding regulation of such matters may increase our operating costs, impact our capital markets and potentially reduce the value of our products and assets.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
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| LXU | LSB Industries, Inc. | USD 9.99 | ▲ 2.36% |
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Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 18:14 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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