Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Stock Price & Analysis
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) closed at USD 83 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 1.44% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 84.21; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 82.55–84.87 on volume of 509,299 shares. Market capitalization is $4.38B, with a 52-week range of USD 62.24–111.42 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/HCC.md
Key facts (HCC)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.68B, net income $219M (13.0% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 20.0x (avg 33.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.6x, net cash $148M.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold HCC (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 109.17 (range 100–123).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +32.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +261.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.39, revenue estimate $504M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (HCC)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $1.74B | $1.68B | $1.53B | $1.31B | $1.68B |
| Gross profit | $505M | $1.03B | $766M | $518M | $328M | — |
| Operating income | $244M | $801M | $541M | $255M | $45.7M | $229M |
| Net income | $151M | $641M | $479M | $251M | $57.0M | $219M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.93 | $12.40 | $9.20 | $4.79 | $1.08 | — |
| Free cash flow | $294M | $637M | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin | 47.7% | 59.1% | 45.7% | 34.0% | 25.0% | — |
| Operating margin | 23.0% | 46.1% | 32.3% | 16.7% | 3.5% | 13.6% |
| Net margin | 14.2% | 36.9% | 28.5% | 16.4% | 4.4% | 13.0% |
| Revenue growth | +35.3% | +64.2% | -3.6% | -9.0% | -14.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $396M | $829M | $738M | $492M | $300M | — |
| Total debt | $340M | $303M | $153M | $154M | $154M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (HCC)
P/E 20.0x · P/S 2.6x · EV/EBITDA 9.6x · EV/Sales 2.5x · P/B 1.9x · Earnings yield 5.00% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.40% · Net cash $148M · EV $4.23B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 81.4x, Dec 2024 11.3x, Dec 2023 6.6x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (HCC)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold HCC. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohnish Pabrai | Pabrai Investments | 43.32% | $142M | Reduced -3.7% |
| Third Avenue Management | 3.70% | $23.2M | Reduced -21.6% | |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.53% | $315M | New position |
Analysts (HCC)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 109.17 (low 100, high 123).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $98 → $102 |
| 2026-09-16 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $90 → $110 |
| 2026-08-06 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $100 → $98 |
| 2026-06-30 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $102 → $100 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (HCC)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +32.9% | +261.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +33.0% | +29.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 50.9% | 47.5% |
| Max drawdown | -29.5% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) | -45.5% (Nov 2024→Mar 2025) |
Companies that name HCC in their SEC reports
| Relationship to HCC | Company | Filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP (ARLP) | 10-K Feb 26, 2026 | “For 2025, the peer group consisted of the following companies: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., Black Stone Minerals, L.P., CORE Natural Resources, Inc., Dorchester Minerals, L.P., Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP, Natural Resource Partners L.P., Peabody, Sitio Royalties Corp., and Warrior Met Coal, Inc. In assessing the competitiveness of our executive compensation program for 2025, the Compensation Committee, wi…” |
| partner | Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) | 10-K Feb 17, 2026 | “The peer group, for the purposes of the information presented below, is comprised of Alliance Resource Partners LP, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., Hallador Energy Company, Peabody Energy Corporation, Ramaco Resources, Inc. and Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Our peer group was updated for 2025 to remove Arch in light of the Merger with the Company in January 2025.” |
HCC analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $1.39 | $1.60 | -13.5% | $504.5M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $2.07 | $1.65 | +24.9% | $524.7M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $6.64 | $6.11 | +8.6% | $2.00B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $7.01 | $7.21 | -2.8% | $2.21B | 4 |
HCC options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±12.7% (±$10.50) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 4, 2026.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 54.9% | ±12.7% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 52.1% | ±16.7% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 49.2% | ±19.3% |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 175 | 49.4% | ±27.6% |
| May 21, 2027 | 210 | 51.0% | ±31.1% |
30-day implied volatility 54.3% vs 39.7% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 2.37. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC)
| Price | USD 83 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 1.44% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 84.21 |
| Open | USD 83.59 |
| Day Range | USD 82.55 – 84.87 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 62.24 – 111.42 |
| Volume | 509,299 shares |
| Market Cap | $4.38B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (HCC)
Nexqual's technical model rates HCC "SELL" based on 3 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 28.61 (oversold) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 95.65) |
| MACD | -2.43 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (HCC)
Wall Street analysts rate HCC "Buy" based on 7 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 109.17 (range USD 100–123), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 7 |
| Mean Target | USD 109.17 |
| High Target | USD 123 |
| Low Target | USD 100 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 4 / 3 / 0 |
Earnings (HCC)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-04 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 1.39 |
| Revenue Estimate | $504.50M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 1.65 vs est 1.46 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 1.37 vs est 1.44 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.44 vs est 0.59 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.7 vs est -0.51 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (HCC)
| Total Revenue | $1.68B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +71.30% |
| Gross Margin | +30.60% |
| Operating Margin | +18.55% |
| Profit Margin | +13.04% |
| ROE | +10.04% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.1 |
| Current Ratio | 3.93 |
| Total Cash | $322.50M |
| Total Debt | $235.83M |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Financial Health Score (HCC)
Nexqual rates Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| Growth | Critical — Revenue -14% YoY (annual), sharp decline |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 31%, operating 19% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $302M cash and investments vs $155M debt (Jun 2026, SEC), net cash |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $229M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE 10%, ROA 5.2% |
Ownership (HCC)
| Insider Ownership | +1.81% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +99.71% |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.80M |
| Float | 51.77M |
| Short % of Float | +10.60% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Leadership (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is led by Walter J. Scheller, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
| CEO & Director | Walter J. Scheller |
|---|---|
| Chief Financial Officer | Dale W. Boyles |
| Chief Operating Officer | Jack K. Richardson |
| Vice President of Legal | Phillip C. Monroe |
| Vice President of External Affairs & Communications | D'Andre Wright |
Major Backers & Investors (HCC)
Notable institutional backers of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. include First Eagle Investment Management, LLC, FMR, LLC, Dalal Street, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment Management, LLC | 7.35% |
| FMR, LLC | 3.98% |
| Dalal Street, LLC | 3.3% |
| T. Rowe Price | 2.91% |
| Fidelity | 1.67% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 14.15% |
| Vanguard Group | 10.73% |
| State Street | 7.65% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 3.16% |
| Geode Capital | 2.87% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources, | USD 159.39 | ▼ 0.3% |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy, Inc. | USD 9.71 | ▼ 1.82% |
| METC | Ramaco Resources, Inc. | USD 7.23 | ▼ 0.69% |
| NTR | Nutrien Ltd. | USD 69.09 | ▲ 1.42% |
| GFI | Gold Fields Limited | USD 35.14 | ▼ 4.51% |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi | USD 268.72 | ▲ 1.54% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:24 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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