Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) Stock Price & Analysis
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) closed at USD 165.46 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 3.57% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 159.76; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 160.32–165.83 on volume of 302,870 shares. Market capitalization is $4.31B, with a 52-week range of USD 134.27–223.04 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/LOPE.md
Key facts (LOPE)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.14B, net income $224M (19.6% margin), free cash flow $243M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 19.2x (avg 20.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 194 (range 182–200).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -25.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +80.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.76, revenue estimate $270M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (LOPE)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $897M | $911M | $961M | $1.03B | $1.11B | $1.14B |
| Operating income | $282M | $238M | $249M | $275M | $266M | $280M |
| Net income | $260M | $185M | $205M | $226M | $216M | $224M |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.92 | $5.73 | $6.80 | $7.73 | $7.71 | — |
| Free cash flow | $284M | $186M | $199M | $253M | $239M | $243M |
| Operating margin | 31.5% | 26.1% | 25.9% | 26.7% | 24.0% | 24.5% |
| Net margin | 29.0% | 20.3% | 21.3% | 21.9% | 19.5% | 19.6% |
| Revenue growth | +6.2% | +1.6% | +5.4% | +7.5% | +7.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $601M | $182M | $245M | $325M | $300M | — |
| Total debt | $53.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (LOPE)
P/E 19.2x · P/S 3.8x · P/FCF 17.8x · P/B 6.4x · FCF yield 5.62% · Earnings yield 5.20% · Buyback yield (TTM) 7.95%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 21.6x, Dec 2024 21.2x, Dec 2023 19.4x.
Analysts (LOPE)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 194 (low 182, high 200).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $185 → $182 |
| 2026-07-06 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $198 → $185 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (LOPE)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -25.0% | +80.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -25.1% | +12.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 32.0% | 31.5% |
| Max drawdown | -38.0% (Oct 2025→Jul 2026) | -35.9% (Oct 2025→Jul 2026) |
LOPE suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | PEARSON PLC (PSO) | “The largest companies in this sector have historically been Pearson Online Learning Services, Academic Partnerships and 2U, Inc.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026.
LOPE customer concentration
In the period ended Jun 30, 2026, a single direct customer accounted for 89.4% of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026. The company does not name it.
LOPE company outlook (results filed Jul 30, 2026)
- “Full Year Outlook 2026 2026 Outlook Q3 2026: ● Service revenue of between $268.5 million and $270.5 million; ● Operating margin of between 19.5% and 20.0%; ● Effective tax rate of 20.8%; ● Diluted EPS of between $1.68 and $1.72; and ● 25.8 million diluted shares.”
- “The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $1.7 million, which equates to a $0.06 impact on diluted EPS.”
- “The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $1.6 million, which equates to a $0.06 impact on diluted EPS.”
- “The diluted EPS guidance includes non-cash amortization of intangible assets net of taxes of $6.5 million, which equates to a $0.25 impact on diluted EPS.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
LOPE analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $1.76 | $1.82 | -3.3% | $270.1M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $3.78 | $3.72 | +1.8% | $325.2M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $10.21 | $10.07 | +1.4% | $1.17B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $11.31 | $11.16 | +1.3% | $1.24B | 3 |
LOPE options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±9.0% (±$14.85) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 4, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±8.1% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 39.9% | ±9.0% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 34.4% | ±10.8% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 34.0% | ±17.3% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 237 | 34.5% | ±22.2% |
30-day implied volatility 38.9% vs 22.5% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC)
| Price | USD 165.46 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 3.57% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 159.76 |
| Open | USD 160.32 |
| Day Range | USD 160.32 – 165.83 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 134.27 – 223.04 |
| Volume | 302,870 shares |
| Market Cap | $4.31B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (LOPE)
Nexqual's technical model rates LOPE "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 1 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 69.37 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 152.52) |
| MACD | 3.08 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (LOPE)
Wall Street analysts rate LOPE "Buy" based on 3 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 194 (range USD 182–200), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 3 |
| Mean Target | USD 194 |
| High Target | USD 200 |
| Low Target | USD 182 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 3 / 0 / 0 |
Earnings (LOPE)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-04 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 1.76 |
| Revenue Estimate | $270.11M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 1.81 vs est 1.67 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 2.86 vs est 2.78 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 3.21 vs est 3.2 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 1.78 vs est 1.78 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (LOPE)
| Total Revenue | $1.14B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +6.70% |
| Gross Margin | +53.27% |
| Operating Margin | +22.02% |
| Profit Margin | +19.63% |
| ROE | +30.98% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.16 |
| Current Ratio | 2.82 |
| Total Cash | $274.53M |
| Total Debt | $104.21M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $242.56M (21.2% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
Financial Health Score (LOPE)
Nexqual rates Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s overall financial health "Strong" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +7% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 53%, operating 22% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $275M cash vs $104M debt, net cash position |
| Cash Flow | Strong — FCF $243M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), 21% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 31%, ROA 20.4% |
Ownership (LOPE)
| Insider Ownership | +2.18% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +108.34% |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.07M |
| Float | 25.09M |
| Short % of Float | +8.98% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
Leadership (LOPE)
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. is led by Brian E. Mueller, Chairman & CEO, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
| Chairman & CEO | Brian E. Mueller |
|---|---|
| Chief Operating Officer | W. Stan Meyer |
| Chief Financial Officer (Leave of Absence) | Daniel E. Bachus |
| Senior VP, Controller, Chief Accounting Officer, Interim CFO & Interim Principal Financial Officer | Lori Browning |
Major Backers & Investors (LOPE)
Notable institutional backers of Grand Canyon Education, Inc. include FMR, LLC, Reinhart Partners, LLC, William Blair Investment Management, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 7.85% |
| Reinhart Partners, LLC | 4.16% |
| William Blair Investment Management, LLC | 3.99% |
| Wasatch Advisors LP | 3.29% |
| Fidelity | 3.26% |
| GW&K Investment Management, LLC | 2.37% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 10.66% |
| Vanguard Group | 9.49% |
| State Street | 3.26% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 2.4% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC.
From Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-18)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We are also regulated (depending upon the applicable activity being regulated) by other federal agencies or departments including the SEC, the Internal Revenue Service ("IRS"), and the Federal Trade Commission ("FTC").
- We have invested more than $350.0 million in the last 17 years in technology which includes the cost to develop systems that automate key processes and enable us to scale these processes to hundreds of thousands of students.
- The following highlights certain key aspects of our corporate governance framework: We have developed and own, or are licensed to use, intellectual property that is or will be the subject of copyright, trademark, service mark, patent, trade secret, or other protections.
Partnerships
- In the healthcare field, we work in partnership with universities and healthcare networks across the country, offering healthcare-related academic programs at off-campus classroom and laboratory sites located near healthcare providers and developing high-quality, career-ready graduates who enter the workforce ready to meet the demands of the healthcare industry.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Our failure, or our university partners' failure, to comply with the extensive regulatory requirements governing institutions of higher education could result in financial penalties, restrictions on our operations or growth, or loss of external financial aid funding for our university partners' students.
- We cannot offer new programs for our university partners or expand university partner operations into certain states if such actions are not timely approved by the applicable regulatory agencies, and our university partners may have to repay Title IV funds disbursed to students enrolled in any such programs, schools, or states if they do not obtain prior approval.
- Government agencies, regulatory agencies, and third parties may conduct compliance reviews, bring claims, or initiate litigation against us or our university partners based on alleged violations of the extensive regulatory requirements applicable to us and our university partners.
- The regulatory guidance governing third-party servicers imposes a number of requirements on our business and may expose us to liability for certain regulatory violations that are coextensive with our university partner institutions.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVSA | Covista Inc. | USD 131.62 | ▲ 3.7% |
| XXI | Twenty One Capital, Inc. | USD 5.61 | ▼ 4.75% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | USD 38.79 | ▲ 1.25% |
| LRN | Stride, Inc. | USD 80.68 | ▲ 5.62% |
| TAL | TAL Education Group | USD 10.46 | ▼ 0.85% |
| MH | McGraw Hill, Inc. | USD 14.8 | ▲ 1.93% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 11:24 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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