Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Stock Price & Analysis
Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) closed at USD 10.62 on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, up 0.00% on the day. The US market is currently closed (after-hours); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 10.62; the Oct 28, 2026 session ranged USD 10.51–10.72 on volume of 419,131 shares. Market capitalization is $1.77B, with a 52-week range of USD 10.15–15.02 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/MNR.md
Key facts (MNR)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.35B, net income $101M (7.4% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 17.6x (avg 14.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.0x, net debt $1.13B.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $2.4M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.22 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 16.86 (range 14–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.1% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y -14.0% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.31, revenue estimate $347M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (MNR)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $392M | $937M | $762M | $970M | $1.18B | $1.35B |
| Operating income | $155M | $522M | $359M | $291M | $245M | $195M |
| Net income | $138M | $517M | $68.5M | $185M | $143M | $101M |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | $0.72 | $1.90 | $1.09 | — |
| Operating margin | 39.6% | 55.7% | 47.1% | 30.0% | 20.8% | 14.4% |
| Net margin | 35.3% | 55.1% | 9.0% | 19.1% | 12.2% | 7.4% |
| Revenue growth | — | +138.8% | -18.7% | +27.2% | +21.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $59.3M | $29.4M | $153M | $106M | $42.6M | — |
| Total debt | — | $84.9M | $807M | $751M | $1.14B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (MNR)
P/E 17.6x · P/S 1.3x · EV/EBITDA 6.0x · EV/Sales 2.1x · Earnings yield 5.67% · Net debt $1.13B · EV $2.90B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.2x, Dec 2024 9.1x, Dec 2023 22.8x.
Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (MNR)
2 purchases, $2.4M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | McMullen William Wallace | Director | 34,514 | $389K | 11.27 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-14 | Ward Tom L. | See Remarks | 172,413 | $2.0M | 11.6 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (MNR)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.22 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 16.86 (low 14, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Strong Buy | $19 → $16 |
| 2026-07-14 | Raymond James | Target raised | Strong Buy | $18 → $19 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (MNR)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2023-10-23) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.1% | -14.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +0.1% | -4.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 29.2% | 29.8% |
| Max drawdown | -26.2% (May 2026→Sep 2026) | -34.3% (Aug 2024→Jan 2026) |
MNR earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.58 | $0.38 | Beat +52.6% | -2.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.21 | $0.47 | Miss −$0.68 | +2.7% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.50 | $0.27 | Beat +85.2% | +2.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.28 | $0.32 | Miss −$0.60 | -3.3% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -1.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +4.9% |
| Mar 13, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +0.6% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -9.3% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).
MNR recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Schedule 13G/A | IKAV General Partner S.a r.l., VEPU Inc.: 14.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Regulation FD disclosure |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed; each form links to the filing. Insider Form 4 filings are listed in the insider sections.
MNR revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales | $368.2M | 90.7% | +67.2% |
| — Oil (part of Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales) | $197.0M | 48.5% | +77.4% |
| — Natural gas (part of Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales) | $109.7M | 27.0% | +58.4% |
| — NGL (part of Gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales) | $61.6M | 15.2% | +54.1% |
| Net oil, natural gas, and NGL sales | $366.9M | 90.4% | +67.2% |
| Gain (loss) on oil and natural gas derivatives | $23.5M | 5.8% | -57.7% |
| Midstream revenue | $9.4M | 2.3% | +50.0% |
| Product sales | $6.2M | 1.5% | -14.2% |
| Total revenue | $406.0M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
MNR suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Mach Resources | “Ward through his ownership of Mach Resources own all of the membership interests in our general partner which are in the same proportion to each other as their limited partner interest ownership in us.” |
| Partner | BCE-Mach Aggregator | “The members of our general partner are BCE-Mach Aggregator, which is controlled by our Sponsor, and Mach Resources, which is controlled by Tom L.” |
| Partner | Delaware Revised Uniform | “Under Section 17-607 of the Delaware Revised Uniform Limited Partnership Act, we may not make distributions to unitholders if the distribution would cause our liabilities to exceed the fair value of our assets.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Mar 12, 2026.
MNR customer concentration
In the period ended Jun 30, 2026, 3 direct customers each accounted for at least 10% (21.8%, 14.4%, 12.8%) of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. The company does not name them.
MNR company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “The Company also announced its quarterly cash distribution and updated its full-year 2026 outlook.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
MNR analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.31 | $0.29 | +6.0% | $347.2M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.42 | $0.38 | +11.5% | $373.8M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $1.31 | $1.23 | +6.8% | $1.44B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $1.34 | $1.41 | -4.9% | $1.42B | 6 |
MNR options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±11.9% (±$1.26) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 5, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±3.4% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 23 | 56.1% | ±11.9% |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 114 | 36.9% | ±16.0% |
| May 21, 2027 | 205 | 35.0% | ±20.2% |
30-day implied volatility 34.9% vs 23.4% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.34. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC)
| Price | USD 10.62 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 0.00% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 10.62 |
| Open | USD 10.65 |
| Day Range | USD 10.51 – 10.72 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 10.15 – 15.02 |
| Volume | 419,131 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.77B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (MNR)
Nexqual's technical model rates MNR "STRONG SELL" based on 0 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
| Overall Signal | STRONG SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.22 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 11.38) |
| MACD | -0.16 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (MNR)
Wall Street analysts rate MNR "Buy" based on 9 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 16.86 (range USD 14–20), per Nexqual as of October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 9 |
| Mean Target | USD 16.86 |
| High Target | USD 20 |
| Low Target | USD 14 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 7 / 2 / 0 |
Earnings (MNR)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.31 |
| Revenue Estimate | $347.20M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.58 vs est 0.38 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD -0.21 vs est 0.47 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.5 vs est 0.27 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD -0.28 vs est 0.32 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (MNR)
| Total Revenue | $1.30B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +63.60% |
| Gross Margin | +54.46% |
| Operating Margin | +33.65% |
| Profit Margin | +7.75% |
| ROE | +6.25% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.65 |
| Current Ratio | 0.88 |
| Total Cash | $41.19M |
| Total Debt | $1.19B |
Source: Nexqual, October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
Financial Health Score (MNR)
Nexqual rates Mach Natural Resources LP's overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +21% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 54%, operating 14% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Mixed — $41M cash and investments vs $1.17B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $507M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE not meaningful (equity is not reported); ROA 2.7% (last 4 quarters, SEC) |
Ownership (MNR)
| Insider Ownership | +22.92% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +61.05% |
| Shares Outstanding | 166.95M |
| Float | 61.79M |
| Short % of Float | +2.69% |
Source: Nexqual, October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
Leadership (MNR)
Mach Natural Resources LP is led by Tom L. Ward, CEO & Director of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC, per Nexqual as of October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
| CEO & Director of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC | Tom L. Ward |
|---|---|
| Chief Financial Officer of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC | Kevin R. White |
| Vice President of Production Operations | Richard D. Hughes |
Major Backers & Investors (MNR)
Notable institutional backers of Mach Natural Resources LP include Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors, L.P., American Century Companies Inc, Morgan Stanley, according to Nexqual as of October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors, L.P. | 9.29% |
| American Century Companies Inc | 1.47% |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.16% |
| CIBC Bancorp USA Inc. | 0.34% |
| First TRT Exch-Trd Fd. VI-Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fd. | 0.32% |
| First Trust Advisors LP | 0.3% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc. | 0.27% |
| Royce & Associates LP | 0.27% |
Source: Nexqual, October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC.
From Mach Natural Resources LP's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-12)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our experience across these formations allows us to generate significant cash available for distribution from these low declining assets in a variety of commodity price environments.
Partnerships
- The EPAct of 2005 also provided FERC with the power to assess civil penalties of up to $1,000,000 per day (adjusted annually for inflation) for violations of the NGA and NGPA.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Our operations are subject to stringent environmental laws and regulations that may affect our operations and expose us to significant costs and liabilities that could exceed current expectations.
- Climate change legislation or regulations restricting emissions of GHGs or requiring the reporting of GHG emissions or climate-related information could result in increased operating costs, impact the demand for the oil and natural gas we produce, and adversely affect our business.
- We may be involved in legal and regulatory proceedings that could result in substantial liabilities.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSM | Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | USD 14.86 | ▲ 0.41% |
| BTE | Baytex Energy Corp | USD 5.46 | ▲ 0.74% |
| CRK | Comstock Resources, Inc. | USD 14.87 | ▼ 0.2% |
| CRGY | Crescent Energy Company | USD 13.75 | ▲ 0.44% |
| CRC | California Resources Corporatio | USD 54.72 | ▲ 1.13% |
| CNX | CNX Resources Corporation | USD 38.05 | ▼ 1.37% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 28, 2026 at 21:12 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt