Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Price & Analysis

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) closed at USD 222.76 on Thursday, October 29, 2026, up 4.01% on the day. The US market is currently closed (after-hours); this is not a live price.

The prior close was USD 214.17; the Oct 29, 2026 session ranged USD 215.38–224.96 on volume of 10,673,110 shares. Market capitalization is $88.93B, with a 52-week range of USD 22.28–254.48 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/MRNA.md

Key facts (MRNA)

Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (MRNA)

USDFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025TTM
Revenue$18.5B$19.3B$6.85B$3.24B$1.94B$2.23B
Gross profit$15.9B$13.8B$2.15B$1.77B$1.08B—
Operating income$13.3B$9.42B-$4.24B-$3.94B-$3.07B-$3.32B
Net income$12.2B$8.36B-$4.71B-$3.56B-$2.82B-$3.15B
EPS (diluted)$28.29$20.12-$12.33-$9.28-$7.26—
Free cash flow$13.3B$4.58B-$3.83B-$4.05B-$2.06B-$1.24B
Gross margin85.8%71.9%31.5%54.8%55.3%—
Operating margin72.0%48.9%-61.9%-121.9%-158.1%-149.0%
Net margin66.1%43.4%-68.8%-110.0%-145.2%-141.4%
Revenue growth+2200.2%+4.3%-64.4%-52.7%-39.9%—
Cash + short-term investments$10.7B$9.90B$8.60B$7.03B$5.80B—
Total debt———$0K$590M—

Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (MRNA)

P/S 39.9x · EV/Sales 37.9x · P/B 13.2x · FCF yield -1.40% · Earnings yield -3.54% · Net cash $4.55B · EV $84.4B

Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (MRNA)

10 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.

Trade dateInsiderRoleSharesValue% of holdings sold10b5-1 planInsider type
2026-10-14…2026-10-15Hoge StephenPresident78,369$17.0M4.2%Yes (adopted June 15, 2026)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-09-14…2026-09-15Hoge StephenPresident80,575$11.7M4.5%Yes (adopted June 15, 2026)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-09-10Mock James MChief Financial Officer34,836$4.7M37%Yes (adopted June 9, 2026)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer3,471$486K4.4%Yes (adopted September 9, 2025)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-08-05Bancel StephaneChief Executive Officer499,246$28.7M3.1%Yes (adopted May 4, 2026)Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month)
2026-07-15Hoge StephenPresident53,336$3.6M3.1%Yes (adopted November 13, 2025)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-06-15Hoge StephenPresident53,336$2.7M3.1%Yes (adopted November 13, 2025)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-06-04Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer3,471$174K4.5%Yes (adopted September 9, 2025)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-05-21Afeyan NoubarDirector9,263$434K0.1%NoOpportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month)
2026-05-15Hoge StephenPresident53,336$2.6M3.2%Yes (adopted November 13, 2025)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025)
2026-05-01Hussain AbbasDirector5,682$265K32%Yes (adopted September 5, 2025)Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024)

% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).

Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

Analysts (MRNA)

Consensus Hold (mean 2.96 on a 1–5 scale), 23 analysts; mean target USD 138.37 (low 45, high 251).

Rating changes, last 120 days:

DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
2026-10-27William BlairDowngradeOutperform → Market Perform
2026-10-26Piper SandlerTarget raisedOverweight$167 → $230
2026-10-21TD CowenTarget raisedHold$40 → $90
2026-10-15Goldman SachsTarget raisedNeutral$120 → $137
2026-10-07Morgan StanleyTarget raisedEqual-Weight$89 → $95
2026-09-30CitigroupDowngradeNeutral → Sell$60 → $80
2026-09-03Rothschild & CoDowngradeNeutral → Sell$40 → $81
2026-08-28Argus ResearchUpgradeHold → Buy$180
2026-08-25Wolfe ResearchUpgradeUnderperform → Peer Perform
2026-08-24BarclaysTarget raisedEqual-Weight$48 → $125
2026-08-21JP MorganTarget raisedUnderweight$40 → $77
2026-08-20Goldman SachsTarget raisedNeutral$67 → $120

Total return (dividends reinvested) (MRNA)

1Y (from 2025-10-30)5Y (from 2021-10-25)
Total return+691.6%-35.5%
S&P 500 (SPY)+14.4%+79.1%
Per year+697.3%-8.4%
Volatility (annualized)129.9%77.8%
Max drawdown-34.2% (Jul 2026→Aug 2026)-93.2% (Oct 2021→Sep 2025)

MRNA earnings history and stock reaction

Results filedQuarterEPSConsensusSurpriseStock reaction
Jul 31, 2026Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026−$1.97−$2.06Beat +4.4%-4.8%
May 1, 2026Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026−$3.40−$3.88Beat +12.4%+3.0%
Feb 13, 2026Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025−$2.11−$2.60Beat +18.8%+9.5%
Jan 12, 2026Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025−$2.11−$2.60Beat +18.8%+15.5%
Nov 6, 2025Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025−$0.51−$2.18Beat +76.6%+4.2%
Aug 1, 2025————-6.5%
May 1, 2025————-3.3%
Feb 14, 2025————+12.0%

EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

MRNA recent SEC filings (last 120 days)

FiledFormWhat it says
Sep 30, 20268-KDirector or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure
“(b) and (c) On September 30, 2026, Moderna, Inc. ("Moderna" or the "Company") announced the appointment of Juan Andres as its Chief Operating Officer ("COO") effective October 5, 2026. In this newly created role, Mr. Andres will support the increasing scale and diversification of the Company and will report to Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel and serve on the Company's Executive Committee. Mr. Andres, 62, previously spent nearly six years at Moderna, including serving as its Chief Technical Operations and…”
Sep 1, 20268-KEntered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation; Unregistered sale of shares; Other material event
“Indenture and Notes On September 1, 2026, Moderna, Inc. (the "Company") completed its previously announced private offering (the "Offering") of $3,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (the "Notes"), including the exercise in full of the initial purchasers' option to purchase up to an additional $400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Notes. The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated September 1, 2026 (the "Indenture"), between the Company and U.S. Bank…”
Aug 12, 2026Schedule 13GCapital World Investors: 5.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder
Aug 6, 2026Schedule 13G/AFMR LLC, Abigail P. Johnson: 13.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended)
Jul 31, 202610-QQuarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026
Jul 31, 20268-KQuarterly results
Jul 24, 2026Schedule 13G/ABAILLIE GIFFORD & CO: 4.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended)
Jul 8, 20268-KDirector or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure
“(d) On July 6, 2026 , the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Moderna, Inc. (the "Company"), upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board (the "Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee"), appointed Michael McDonnell to the Board, effective July 8, 2026. Mr. McDonnell has more than 35 years of financial leadership and public company experience, most recently serving as Chief Financial Officer of Biogen Inc. from August 2020 through February 2025. He previously…”

Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed; each form links to the filing. Insider Form 4 filings are listed in the insider sections.

MRNA revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)

LineRevenueShare of totalYoY
Net product sales$94.0M64.8%-17.5%
— COVID (part of Net product sales)$91.0M62.8%-20.2%
— RSV (part of Net product sales)$3.0M2.1%—
Other revenue$51.0M35.2%+82.1%
— Stand-ready manufacturing revenue (part of Other revenue)$31.0M21.4%+82.4%
— Collaboration Arrangement, Including Arrangements With Affiliate (part of Other revenue)$15.0M10.3%+275.0%
— Licensing and royalty revenue (part of Other revenue)$3.0M2.1%+50.0%
— Grant revenue (part of Other revenue)$2.0M1.4%-60.0%
Total revenue$145.0M100%—

MRNA revenue by region (fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2025)

LineRevenueShare of totalYoY
United States$1.20B61.7%-32.8%
Rest Of World$692.0M35.6%-18.9%
Europe$53.0M2.7%-91.1%
Total revenue$1.94B100%—

As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).

MRNA suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)

RelationshipCompanySentence in the filing
PartnerMerck (MRK)“We are advancing intismeran in collaboration with Merck, with eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials underway across multiple tumor types.”
PartnerImmatics N.V. (IMTX)“We have also expanded our oncology portfolio with early-stage programs, including mRNA-4106 (a cancer antigen therapy), mRNA-2808 (a T-cell engager), and mRNA-4203 (a cell-therapy enhancer). mRNA-4203 is being developed in collaboration with Immatics.”
PartnerVertex Pharmaceuticals“In July 2016, we entered into a Strategic Collaboration and License Agreement (Vertex Agreement) with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited (together, Vertex).”
PartnerARES CAPITAL CORP (ARCC)“A failure to comply with the covenants in our credit agreement with lenders led by Ares Capital Corporation, as administrative agent, could result in an event of default, which, if not cured or waived, could have a material, adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.”
PartnerOpenAI“In early 2023, we began a collaboration with OpenAI to co-innovate with a shared vision of AI's transformative potential in the future of business and healthcare.”
CompetitorPfizer (PFE)“We largely compete against Pfizer and BioNTech for sales of our COVID vaccines, whose vaccine is also based on mRNA technology.”

Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026.

Companies that name MRNA in their SEC reports

Relationship to MRNACompanyFilingSentence
competitorGeoVax Labs, Inc. (GOVX)10-K Apr 15, 2026“We face general market competition from several subsectors of the vaccine development field, including large, multinational pharmaceutical companies including Sanofi, GSK, Merck, Mitsubishi Tanabe, Takeda, and Pfizer; mid-size pharmaceutical companies and emerging biotechnology companies including Dynavax, Novavax, Moderna, BioNTech and Bavarian Nordic; and academic and not-for-profit vaccine researchers and devel…”
partnerAutolus Therapeutics plc (AUTL)10-K Mar 27, 2026“We have collaboration and license agreements with, for example, BioNTech SE, Cabaletta Bio Inc., Moderna Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, and others.”
competitorBioCardia, Inc. (BCDA)10-K Mar 24, 2026“The industry continues to expand and evolve as an increasing number of competitors and potential competitors enter the market, including AstraZeneca, Bayer, Blue Rock Therapeutics, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Lisata Therapeutics, Capricor Therapeutics, Celixir, Celyad, Daiichi Sankyo, Fuji Film, Mesoblast, Moderna, Orizuru Therapeutics, Sana Biotechnology, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Tenaya Therapeutics, Terumo, Vericel Cor…”
partnerSilexion Therapeutics Corp (SLXN)10-K Mar 17, 2026“Other companies with selective KRAS inhibitors include AstraZeneca (in collaboration with Usynova), BioNTech, Roche, Merck/Moderna, Boehringer and Gilead.”
partnerCytomX Therapeutics, Inc. (CTMX)10-K Mar 16, 2026“We currently have several strategic alliances with major multinational drug companies, including Amgen, Inc. ("Amgen"), Bristol Myers Squibb, Astellas Pharma Inc. ("Astellas"), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. ("Regeneron"), and ModernaTX, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Moderna, Inc ("Moderna").”
competitorCoya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA)10-K Mar 16, 2026“Competitor companies developing Biologic approaches to enhancing Tregs, leveraging IL-2 formulations, include: Amgen (AMGN) (IL-2 mutein for GVHD and autoimmune diseases), Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) (Pegylated IL-2 for autoimmune diseases), Merck (MRK) (IL-2 mutein for autoimmune diseases), Xencor (XNCR) (IL-2 Fc Fusion Protein for autoimmune diseases), Cue Biopharma (CUE) (IL-2 bispecific for GVHD and autoimmune …”
competitorORAGENICS INC (OGEN)10-K Mar 16, 2026“AstraZeneca, and Moderna, among others, compete in the same or similar markets.”
competitorBioNTech SE (BNTX)20-F Mar 10, 2026“developed by Moderna, Inc. and Novavax, Inc. Our competitors pursuing vaccine candidates may have greater”
partnerImmatics N.V. (IMTX)20-F Mar 5, 2026“In parallel to our proprietary development, we are collaborating with Moderna to evaluate the combination of anzu-cel (IMA203) with Moderna's PRAME cell therapy enhancer, mRNA-4203, in an ongoing Phase 1 trial.”
partnerMetagenomi Therapeutics, Inc. (MGX)10-K Mar 5, 2026“On April 26, 2024 (the "Termination Date"), we and ModernaTx, Inc. ("Moderna") mutually terminated the Strategic Collaboration and License Agreement, dated October 29, 2021 (the "Moderna Agreement"), by and between us and Moderna.”
competitorInvivyd, Inc. (IVVD)10-K Mar 5, 2026“Alternative COVID-19 prevention competition exists from mRNA vaccine manufacturers Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, as well as protein subunit vaccine from Novavax (authorized for people 12 years and older).”
partnerOcugen, Inc. (OCGN)10-K Mar 4, 2026“Companies such as Pfizer Inc./BioNTech SE, Moderna, Inc., CureVac N.V in partnership with GSK plc, Vivaldi Biosciences Inc., and Novavax, Inc. are also in the process of developing a combination vaccine that will protect against COVID-19 and the seasonal flu.”
competitorPrime Medicine, Inc. (PRME)10-K Mar 3, 2026“Other companies have announced intentions to enter the gene editing field, such as Moderna, Inc. and Pfizer Inc. Most recently, new epigenetic editing companies have emerged, such as Moonwalk Biosciences, Inc., nChroma Bio, Inc. and Tune Therapeutics, Inc. In addition, we face competition from companies utilizing gene therapy, oligonucleotides and cell therapy therapeutic approaches.”
partnerCaris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI)10-K Mar 3, 2026“Our molecular profiling solutions and the data generated by our multi-omic technology platform provide value to our biopharma partners, such as Moderna, AbbVie, Xencor, Merck KGaA and Genentech, through partnerships that aim to increase the probability of technical and regulatory success of their therapeutic pipelines.”
competitorArcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT)10-K Mar 3, 2026“We are aware of product candidates of the following companies that we consider as competitors or future competitors to ARCT-032: Moderna/Vertex, Recode Therapeutics, Eloxx Pharmaceuticals, 4DMT, Spirovant, SalioGen, Splisense, Krystal Biotech, Sionna and Enterprise Therapeutics.”

MRNA customer concentration

In the period ended Dec 31, 2025, 3 direct customers each accounted for at least 10% (15%, 13%, 11%) of revenue, per the company's 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026. The company does not name them.

MRNA company outlook (results filed Jul 31, 2026)

Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.

MRNA analyst estimates and revisions

PeriodEPS estimate90 days agoChangeRevenue estimateAnalysts
Current quarter (ends Sep 2026)$-1.28$-1.22−$0.06$891.3M15
Next quarter (ends Dec 2026)$-1.86$-2.06+$0.20$675.4M13
Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026)$-8.50$-8.67+$0.17$2.10B21
Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027)$-4.90$-4.75−$0.14$2.44B19

MRNA options: expected move

Options price a move of about ±11.5% (±$25.30) by Nov 6, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 6, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±7.4% on average.

ExpirationDaysATM implied volatilityExpected move
Oct 30, 2026196.2%±4.2%
Nov 6, 2026896.0%±11.5%
Nov 13, 20261593.4%±15.2%
Nov 20, 20262287.7%±17.2%
Nov 27, 20262984.8%±19.1%
Dec 4, 20263682.5%±20.7%
Dec 11, 20264381.3%±22.3%
Dec 18, 20265081.6%±24.1%

30-day implied volatility 83.2% vs 99.9% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.74. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.

Key Statistics (as of October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC)

PriceUSD 222.76
Change▲ 4.01% (up)
Previous CloseUSD 214.17
OpenUSD 216.26
Day RangeUSD 215.38 – 224.96
52-Week RangeUSD 22.28 – 254.48
Volume10,673,110 shares
Market Cap$88.93B
ExchangeNMS

Technical Analysis (MRNA)

Nexqual's technical model rates MRNA "STRONG BUY" based on 5 bullish and 0 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

Overall SignalSTRONG BUY
RSI (14)58.99 (neutral)
vs SMA50Above (USD 180.72)
MACD10.72 (positive)

Analyst Ratings (MRNA)

Wall Street analysts rate MRNA "Hold" based on 23 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 138.37 (range USD 45–251), per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

Consensus RatingHold
Analyst Count23
Mean TargetUSD 138.37
High TargetUSD 251
Low TargetUSD 45
Buy / Hold / Sell4 / 16 / 3

Earnings (MRNA)

Next Earnings Date2026-11-06
EPS EstimateUSD -1.35
Revenue Estimate$891.31M

Recent Earnings History

QuarterActual vs Estimate
2026-06-30USD -1.97 vs est -2.06 ▲ beat
2026-03-31USD -3.4 vs est -3.88 ▲ beat
2025-12-31USD -2.11 vs est -2.6 ▲ beat
2025-09-30USD -0.51 vs est -2.18 ▲ beat

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

Financials & Fundamentals (MRNA)

Total Revenue$2.23B
Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY)+2.10%
Gross Margin-66.02%
Operating Margin-557.93%
Profit Margin-141.43%
ROE-39.00%
Debt / Equity0.19
Current Ratio2.3
Total Cash$5.14B
Total Debt$1.29B
Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K)-$1.24B (-55.8% of revenue)

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

Financial Health Score (MRNA)

Nexqual rates Moderna, Inc.'s overall financial health "Weak" across five dimensions, as of October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

GrowthCritical — Revenue -40% YoY (annual), sharp decline
ProfitabilityCritical — Heavily loss-making — early-stage company
Balance SheetStrong — $5.14B cash and investments vs $591M debt (Jun 2026, SEC), net cash
Cash FlowWeak — FCF negative: -$1.24B (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), burning cash
EfficiencyCritical — ROE -47%, ROA -28.7% (last 4 quarters, SEC)

Ownership (MRNA)

Insider Ownership+7.36%
Institutional Ownership+80.54%
Shares Outstanding399.24M
Float371.98M
Short % of Float+9.98%

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

Leadership (MRNA)

Moderna, Inc. is led by Stéphane Bancel, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

CEO & DirectorStéphane Bancel
PresidentStephen Hoge
Chief Financial OfficerJames M. Mock
Chief Operating OfficerJuan Andres
Senior Vice President of Commercial VaccinesPatrick Norman Bergstedt

Major Backers & Investors (MRNA)

Notable institutional backers of Moderna, Inc. include FMR, LLC, Capital Group, Baillie Gifford, according to Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

Active Investors

InvestorStake
FMR, LLC12.99%
Capital Group5.58%
Baillie Gifford4.56%
Growth Fund of America3.75%
Fidelity3.36%
Morgan Stanley2.39%

Index Funds (Passive)

FundStake
Vanguard Group9.71%
BlackRock7.66%
State Street3.94%
Geode Capital2.43%

Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC.

From Moderna, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-20)

Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)

Partnerships

Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)

Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.

Peers & Related Stocks

SymbolNamePriceChange
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.USD 818.77▲ 0.68%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporUSD 540▲ 1.95%
ARGXargenx SEUSD 897.85▲ 0.68%
ONCBeOne Medicines Ltd.USD 371.56▼ 0.48%
RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc.USD 190.27▲ 0.82%
RPRXRoyalty Pharma plcUSD 65.93▲ 1.71%

Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 29, 2026 at 20:54 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.

For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt