Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Stock Price & Analysis
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) closed at USD 32.37 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 7.65% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 30.07; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 30.45–32.44 on volume of 123,354 shares. Market capitalization is $745.99M, with a 52-week range of USD 23.47–41.07 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/NGVC.md
Key facts (NGVC)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.34B, net income $47.6M (3.5% margin), free cash flow $22.7M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.7x (avg 17.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 7.6x, net cash $16.0M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $87K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($87K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 42.25 (range 35–54).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -18.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +212.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-19, EPS estimate USD 0.56, revenue estimate $353M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (NGVC)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $1.09B | $1.14B | $1.24B | $1.33B | $1.34B |
| Gross profit | $292M | $305M | $327M | $365M | $398M | — |
| Operating income | $28.3M | $30.2M | $31.7M | $47.0M | $62.0M | $63.3M |
| Net income | $20.6M | $21.4M | $23.2M | $33.9M | $46.4M | $47.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.91 | $0.94 | $1.02 | $1.47 | $2.00 | — |
| Free cash flow | $27.5M | $11.7M | $28.0M | $36.2M | $24.1M | $22.7M |
| Gross margin | 27.7% | 28.0% | 28.7% | 29.4% | 29.9% | — |
| Operating margin | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Net margin | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Revenue growth | +1.8% | +3.2% | +4.7% | +8.9% | +7.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $23.7M | $12.0M | $18.3M | $8.9M | $17.1M | — |
| Total debt | $23.7M | $15.7M | $7.7M | $0K | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Sep. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (NGVC)
P/E 15.7x · P/S 0.6x · EV/EBITDA 7.6x · EV/Sales 0.5x · P/FCF 32.8x · P/B 3.1x · FCF yield 3.04% · Earnings yield 6.39% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.76% · Net cash $16.0M · EV $730M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2025 20.0x, Sep 2024 20.2x, Sep 2023 12.7x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (NGVC)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Isely Charity | 3,000 | $87K | 21.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (NGVC)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 42.25 (low 35, high 54).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | B of A Securities | Initiated | Buy | $35 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (NGVC)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -18.8% | +212.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -18.9% | +25.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.0% | 46.2% |
| Max drawdown | -41.5% (Oct 2025→Jan 2026) | -58.2% (May 2025→Dec 2025) |
NGVC suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Meta Platforms (META) | “During fiscal year 2025, the measures we took that were aimed at enhancing our brand awareness included: (i) featuring promotions through our {N}power® customer rewards program ({N}power), with a focus on local store marketing; (ii) continuing to make enhancements to our monthly Health Hotline magazine; (iii) organizing month-long seasonal and topical special promotions; (iv) expanding our digital and social media…” |
| Customer | ByteDance | “During fiscal year 2025, the measures we took that were aimed at enhancing our brand awareness included: (i) featuring promotions through our {N}power® customer rewards program ({N}power), with a focus on local store marketing; (ii) continuing to make enhancements to our monthly Health Hotline magazine; (iii) organizing month-long seasonal and topical special promotions; (iv) expanding our digital and social media…” |
| Competitor | Kroger (KR) | “Our competition varies by market and includes supermarkets such as Kroger and Safeway; mass or discount retailers such as Wal-Mart and Target; natural and gourmet markets such as Whole Foods and The Fresh Market; foreign-based discount retailers such as Aldi, Lidl and Ahold Delhaize; specialty food retailers such as Sprouts Farmers Market and Trader Joe's; warehouse clubs such as Sam's Club and Costco; dietary sup…” |
| Competitor | Costco (COST) | “Our competition varies by market and includes supermarkets such as Kroger and Safeway; mass or discount retailers such as Wal-Mart and Target; natural and gourmet markets such as Whole Foods and The Fresh Market; foreign-based discount retailers such as Aldi, Lidl and Ahold Delhaize; specialty food retailers such as Sprouts Farmers Market and Trader Joe's; warehouse clubs such as Sam's Club and Costco; dietary sup…” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Dec 11, 2025.
NGVC analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.56 | $0.54 | +5.3% | $352.6M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.55 | $0.00 | — | $349.9M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Sep 2026) | $2.11 | $2.12 | -0.6% | $1.36B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Sep 2027) | $2.32 | $2.31 | +0.6% | $1.44B | 3 |
NGVC options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±19.5% (±$6.30) by Dec 18, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 19, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±10.2% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 62.4% | ±19.5% |
30-day implied volatility 53.4% vs 34.9% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) —. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC)
| Price | USD 32.37 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 7.65% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 30.07 |
| Open | USD 30.52 |
| Day Range | USD 30.45 – 32.44 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 23.47 – 41.07 |
| Volume | 123,354 shares |
| Market Cap | $745.99M |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (NGVC)
Nexqual's technical model rates NGVC "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 2 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 68.53 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 29.12) |
| MACD | 0.35 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (NGVC)
Wall Street analysts rate NGVC "Buy" based on 4 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 42.25 (range USD 35–54), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 4 |
| Mean Target | USD 42.25 |
| High Target | USD 54 |
| Low Target | USD 35 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 4 / 0 / 0 |
Earnings (NGVC)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-19 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.56 |
| Revenue Estimate | $352.65M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.48 vs est 0.52 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.58 vs est 0.55 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.49 vs est 0.46 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.51 vs est 0.42 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (NGVC)
| Total Revenue | $1.34B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +1.80% |
| Gross Margin | +33.47% |
| Operating Margin | +3.89% |
| Profit Margin | +3.55% |
| ROE | +21.56% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.35 |
| Current Ratio | 1.1 |
| Total Cash | $17.47M |
| Total Debt | $322.68M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $22.71M (1.7% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
Financial Health Score (NGVC)
Nexqual rates Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
| Growth | Mixed — Revenue +1.8% YoY (latest Q), slow |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 33%, operating 4% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Mixed — $17M cash and investments vs $1M debt (Jun 2026, SEC), net cash |
| Cash Flow | Mixed — FCF $23M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), slim 1.7% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 22%, ROA 5.7% |
Ownership (NGVC)
| Insider Ownership | +43.37% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +41.06% |
| Shares Outstanding | 23.05M |
| Float | 9.55M |
| Short % of Float | +11.13% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
Leadership (NGVC)
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. is led by Kemper Isely, Chairman & Co-President, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
| Chairman & Co-President | Kemper Isely |
|---|---|
| Co-President & Director | Zephyr Isely |
| Executive VP & Director | Elizabeth Isely |
| Executive VP, Corporate Secretary & Director | Heather Isely |
Major Backers & Investors (NGVC)
Notable institutional backers of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. include American Century Companies Inc, Royce & Associates LP, Morgan Stanley, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| American Century Companies Inc | 2.83% |
| Royce & Associates LP | 2.6% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.05% |
| ROYCE FUND-Royce Small-Cap Total Return Fund | 1.98% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | 1.46% |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 1.29% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 4.3% |
| Vanguard Group | 3.6% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 2.83% |
| Geode Capital | 1.32% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC.
From Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2025-12-11)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our ERP system application support and hardware functions are outsourced, which allows us to focus on our core business.
- The safety, formulation, manufacturing, processing, packaging, importation, labeling, promotion, advertising and distribution of products we sell in our stores, including private label products, are subject to regulation by several federal agencies, including the FDA, the Federal Trade Commission (the FTC), the USDA, the Consumer Product Safety Commission (the CPSC) and the Environmental Protection Agency (the EPA), as well as by various state and local agencies.
- We believe our scalable operating structure, attractive new store model, flexible real estate strategy and disciplined approach to new store development allow us to maximize store performance and continue to grow our store base.
- The smaller-store footprint made possible by our limited offering of prepared foods reduces real estate costs, labor costs and perishable inventory shrink and enables us to leverage our new store opening costs.
Partnerships
- During fiscal year 2025, we organized in-store scavenger hunts to increase store traffic and launched a number of promotions in collaboration with local businesses, schools and non-profit organizations to positively impact our communities and increase brand awareness.
- As of September 30, 2025, in partnership with a third party, we offered online ordering, with home delivery services at 164 of our stores and pickup services at 17 of our stores.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Failure to protect our information systems against cyber-attacks or information security breaches, including failure to protect the integrity and security of individually identifiable data of our customers and Crew members, could expose us to litigation, damage our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our business.
- Claims under our self-insurance program may differ from our estimates, which could negatively impact our results of operations.
- Legal proceedings could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
- Our sale of products containing cannabidiol (CBD) could lead to regulatory action by federal, state and/or local authorities or legal proceedings brought by or on behalf of consumers.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
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|---|---|---|---|
| YSWY | Yesway, Inc. | USD 24.51 | ▲ 5.35% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | USD 45.62 | ▲ 5.12% |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme, Inc. | USD 2.95 | ▲ 2.43% |
| DDL | Dingdong (Cayman) Limited | USD 1.99 | ▼ 2.45% |
| GO | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | USD 13.9 | ▲ 5.7% |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets, Incorporated | USD 88.75 | ▲ 4.24% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 10:31 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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