Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) Stock Price & Analysis
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) closed at USD 4.9 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 0.62% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 4.87; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 4.84–5 on volume of 5,086,431 shares. Market capitalization is $967.30M, with a 52-week range of USD 4.75–8.4 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/ORC.md
Key facts (ORC)
- Valuation: P/E 4.0x.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 7.5 (range 7.5–7.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -20.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -50.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 0.27, revenue estimate $59.1M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (ORC)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | -$64.8M | -$258M | -$39.2M | $37.7M | $159M | $245M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.70 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $385M | $206M | $172M | $309M | $666M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (ORC)
P/E 4.0x · P/B 0.7x · Earnings yield 25.30% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 24.49% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.83%
Analysts (ORC)
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 7.5 (low 7.5, high 7.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | BTIG | Initiated | Neutral |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (ORC)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -20.4% | -50.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -20.5% | -13.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.4% | 32.2% |
| Max drawdown | -34.4% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -66.0% (Nov 2021→Oct 2023) |
ORC company outlook (results filed Oct 22, 2026)
- “This compares to an effective duration of 2.513 as of December 31, 2025, which indicated that an interest rate increase of 1.0% would be expected to cause a 2.513 % decrease in the value of the RMBS in the Company's investment portfolio.”
- “Orchid Island Capital, Inc. assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking statements.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
ORC analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.27 | $0.28 | -4.5% | $59.1M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends Mar 2027) | $0.26 | $0.29 | -12.1% | $58.9M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.98 | $1.09 | -10.5% | $235.8M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.93 | $1.05 | -11.4% | $252.5M | 4 |
ORC options: expected move
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 35.5% | ±8.4% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 30.7% | ±10.2% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 32.8% | ±13.8% |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 175 | 35.4% | ±21.5% |
30-day implied volatility 33.5% vs 32% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.03. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC)
| Price | USD 4.9 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 0.62% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 4.87 |
| Open | USD 4.86 |
| Day Range | USD 4.84 – 5 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 4.75 – 8.4 |
| Volume | 5,086,431 shares |
| Market Cap | $967.30M |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (ORC)
Nexqual's technical model rates ORC "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 28.01 (oversold) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 5.92) |
| MACD | -0.3 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (ORC)
Wall Street analysts rate ORC "Hold" based on 4 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 7.5 (range USD 7.5–7.5), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 4 |
| Mean Target | USD 7.5 |
| High Target | USD 7.5 |
| Low Target | USD 7.5 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 0 / 4 / 0 |
Earnings (ORC)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-22 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.27 |
| Revenue Estimate | $59.07M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | USD 0.27 vs est 0.29 ▼ miss |
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.62 vs est 0.29 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.26 vs est 0.27 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.2 vs est 0.19 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (ORC)
| Total Revenue | $270.14M |
|---|---|
| Gross Margin | +98.27% |
| Operating Margin | +92.95% |
| Profit Margin | +90.59% |
| ROE | +20.80% |
| Debt / Equity | 7.7 |
| Current Ratio | 0.12 |
| Total Cash | $1.19B |
| Total Debt | $11.09B |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Financial Health Score (ORC)
Nexqual rates Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
| Growth | Mixed — No data |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Operating margin 93% |
| Balance Sheet | Critical — $1.19B cash vs $11.1B debt |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $120M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 21%, ROA 2.4% |
Ownership (ORC)
| Insider Ownership | +0.22% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +47.95% |
| Shares Outstanding | 197.41M |
| Float | 199.22M |
| Short % of Float | +11.94% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Leadership (ORC)
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. is led by Robert E. Cauley C.F.A., Chairman, President & CEO, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
| Chairman, President & CEO | Robert E. Cauley C.F.A. |
|---|---|
| CFO, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary & Management Director | George Hunter Haas |
Major Backers & Investors (ORC)
Notable institutional backers of Orchid Island Capital, Inc. include Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd., Goldman Sachs, Invesco, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd. | 1.93% |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.76% |
| Invesco | 1.46% |
| VanEck ETF Trust-VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF | 1.27% |
| Van Eck Associates Corporation | 1.19% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 10.29% |
| Vanguard Group | 4.48% |
| Geode Capital | 2.62% |
| State Street | 2.27% |
| Northern Trust | 1.16% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
From Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-20)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We believe our relationship with our Manager enables us to leverage our Manager's established portfolio management resources for each of our targeted asset classes and its infrastructure supporting those resources.
- We believe that this strategy, combined with our Manager's experience, will enable us to provide attractive long-term returns to our stockholders.
- We believe that we have been organized and have operated in conformity with the requirements for qualification and taxation as a REIT under the Code, and we intend to continue to operate in a manner that will enable us to continue to meet the requirements for qualification and taxation as a REIT.
Partnerships
- We engage in interest rate swaps as a means of managing our interest rate risk on forecasted interest expense associated with repurchase agreement borrowings for the term of the swap contract.
- An interest rate swap is a contractual agreement entered into by two counterparties, under which each agrees to make periodic interest payments to the other (one pays a fixed rate of interest, while the other pays a floating rate of interest) for an agreed period of time based upon a notional amount of principal.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We may be subject to adverse legislative or regulatory changes that could reduce the market price of our common stock.
- Failure to obtain and maintain an exemption from being regulated as a commodity pool operator could subject us to additional regulation and compliance requirements and may result in fines and other penalties which could materially adversely affect our business and financial condition.
- Our bylaws designate the Circuit Court for Baltimore City, Maryland as the sole and exclusive forum for certain types of actions and proceedings that may be initiated by our stockholders, which could limit stockholders' ability to obtain a favorable judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors or officers and could discourage lawsuits against us and our directors and officers.
- Our qualification as a REIT and exemption from U.S. federal income tax with respect to certain assets may be dependent on the accuracy of legal opinions or advice rendered or given or statements by the issuers of assets that we acquire, and the inaccuracy of any such opinions, advice or statements may adversely affect our REIT qualification and result in significant corporate-level tax.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real Estate F | USD 6.3 | ▼ 0.63% |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | USD 9.32 | ▲ 4.02% |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corporation | USD 8.45 | ▲ 2.55% |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | USD 7.73 | ▲ 3.9% |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | USD 6.62 | ▲ 2.32% |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | USD 11.63 | ▲ 1.84% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 12:00 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt