Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) Stock Price & Analysis
Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) closed at USD 16.53 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 5.27% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 17.45; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 16.45–17.51 on volume of 922,843 shares. Market capitalization is $2.93B, with a 52-week range of USD 8.92–29.8 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/PTRN.md
Key facts (PTRN)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.01B, net income $26.4M (0.9% margin), free cash flow $106M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 111.2x (avg 81.7x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $167M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($167M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 27 (range 20–30).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +5.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.15, revenue estimate $854M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (PTRN)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.37B | $1.80B | $2.50B | $3.01B |
| Gross profit | $601M | $781M | $1.09B | — |
| Operating income | $52.8M | $87.2M | $25.4M | $41.0M |
| Net income | $41.3M | $67.9M | $16.2M | $26.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.22 | $0.47 | -$1.36 | — |
| Free cash flow | $27.0M | $49.9M | $78.9M | $106M |
| Gross margin | 44.0% | 43.5% | 43.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 3.9% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Net margin | 3.0% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Revenue growth | — | +31.5% | +39.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $127M | $176M | $289M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (PTRN)
P/E 111.2x · P/S 1.0x · P/FCF 27.6x · P/B 4.5x · FCF yield 3.62% · Earnings yield 0.90%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 81.7x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (PTRN)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Kl Pattern Holdings Lp | 9,200,000 | $167M | 32.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) | |
| 2026-06-02 | Mather Ann | Director | 3,755 | $76K | 8.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Mather Ann | Director | 5,301 | $88K | 11% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (PTRN)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 27 (low 20, high 30).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $26 → $29 |
| 2026-08-06 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $24 → $29 |
| 2026-08-03 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $20 → $30 |
| 2026-07-14 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $21 → $30 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (PTRN)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2025-09-15) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.7% | +5.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +0.7% | +5.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 68.1% | 62.5% |
| Max drawdown | -47.9% (Nov 2025→Feb 2026) | -42.9% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) |
PTRN revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com | $730.3M | 83.3% | +40.7% |
| Other online marketplaces and channels | $65.5M | 7.5% | +86.5% |
| Amazon marketplaces, international | $64.3M | 7.3% | +75.9% |
| SaaS, logistics and other revenue | $16.7M | 1.9% | +123.3% |
| Total revenue | $876.8M | 100% | — |
PTRN revenue by region (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $766.8M | 87.5% | +42.2% |
| International | $110.0M | 12.5% | +87.2% |
| Total revenue | $876.8M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
PTRN suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | “For the year ended December 31, 2025, we derived 93% of our revenue from consumer product sales on Amazon.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Mar 6, 2026.
PTRN customer concentration
In the period ended Dec 31, 2025, a single direct customer accounted for 93% of revenue, per the company's 10-K filed Mar 6, 2026. The company does not name it.
PTRN company outlook (results filed May 6, 2026)
- “We are operating from a position of strength heading into the rest of 2026." For the second quarter 2026, Pattern anticipates: Revenues in the range of $810 million to $820 million, representing approximately 35% to 37% growth year over year.”
- “For the full year 2026, Pattern anticipates: Revenues in the range of $3.29 billion to $3.33 billion, representing approximately 32% to 33% growth year over year, up from our prior guidance range of approximately 25% to 26% growth year over year.”
Analysts expect $853.7M for the current quarter, 4.8% above the midpoint of the company's guidance ($815.0M).
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
PTRN analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.15 | $0.13 | +16.9% | $853.7M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.15 | $0.15 | +3.3% | $939.6M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.63 | $0.55 | +13.6% | $3.44B | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.79 | $0.70 | +12.6% | $4.28B | 3 |
PTRN options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±18.5% (±$3.05) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 4, 2026. Over the last 3 reports the stock moved ±11.7% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 77.3% | ±18.5% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 83.0% | ±27.2% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 75.8% | ±39.3% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 237 | 80.5% | ±52.6% |
30-day implied volatility 71% vs 46.8% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.38. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC)
| Price | USD 16.53 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 5.27% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 17.45 |
| Open | USD 17.41 |
| Day Range | USD 16.45 – 17.51 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 8.92 – 29.8 |
| Volume | 922,843 shares |
| Market Cap | $2.93B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (PTRN)
Nexqual's technical model rates PTRN "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 35.79 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 19.2) |
| MACD | -0.56 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (PTRN)
Wall Street analysts rate PTRN "Buy" based on 9 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 27 (range USD 20–30), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 9 |
| Mean Target | USD 27 |
| High Target | USD 30 |
| Low Target | USD 20 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 8 / 1 / 0 |
Earnings (PTRN)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-04 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.15 |
| Revenue Estimate | $853.72M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.16 vs est 0.12 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.23 vs est 0.12 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD -1.95 vs est -1.69 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (PTRN)
| Total Revenue | $3.01B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +46.60% |
| Gross Margin | +43.89% |
| Operating Margin | +4.05% |
| Profit Margin | +0.88% |
| ROE | +4.92% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.08 |
| Current Ratio | 2.35 |
| Total Cash | $345.83M |
| Total Debt | $51.31M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $106.13M (3.5% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Financial Health Score (PTRN)
Nexqual rates Pattern Group Inc.'s overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +47% YoY (latest Q) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 44%, operating 4% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $346M cash vs $51M debt, net cash position |
| Cash Flow | Mixed — FCF $106M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), slim 3.5% margin |
| Efficiency | Weak — ROE 5%, ROA 2.9% |
Ownership (PTRN)
| Insider Ownership | +49.10% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +42.60% |
| Shares Outstanding | 155.70M |
| Float | 46.04M |
| Short % of Float | +16.84% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Leadership (PTRN)
Pattern Group Inc. is led by David Wright, Co-Founder, President, CEO & Chairman, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| Co-Founder, President, CEO & Chairman | David Wright |
|---|---|
| Co-Founder & Director | Melanie Alder |
| Chief Financial Officer | Jason Beesley |
| Chief Marketing Officer | Chris Baird |
| Managing Director of Asia | Arthur Cheung |
Major Backers & Investors (PTRN)
Notable institutional backers of Pattern Group Inc. include Knox Lane LP, Wasatch Advisors LP, LOOMIS SAYLES & CO L P, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Knox Lane LP | 12.19% |
| Wasatch Advisors LP | 2.59% |
| LOOMIS SAYLES & CO L P | 1.27% |
| Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC | 1.27% |
| NORGES BANK | 1.21% |
| Capital Group | 1.16% |
| Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC | 1.16% |
| Alyeska Investment Group, L.p. | 1.13% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 1.57% |
| Vanguard Group | 1.31% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
From Pattern Group Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-06)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our proprietary technology and on-demand experts operate across more than 70 marketplaces to increase product sales to consumers in more than 100 countries.
- Our platform combines proprietary technology with a global team of in-house experts across marketplace operations, advertising, content, inventory management, fulfillment and brand protection to execute ecommerce operations at scale.
- Our platform combines proprietary technology and on-demand expertise built on a differentiated data set.
- Our platform is powered by proprietary data set consisting of more than 66 trillion data points.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We are subject to extensive laws and regulations and we may incur material liabilities or costs related to complying with existing or future laws and regulations, and our failure to comply may result in enforcements, penalties, recalls and other adverse actions.
- We are subject to anti-corruption, anti-bribery, anti-money laundering and similar laws, and non-compliance with such laws can subject us to criminal or civil liability and harm our business, financial condition and results of operations.
- Government regulation of the internet, mobile devices and ecommerce is evolving, and unfavorable changes could substantially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
- We may at times fail (or be perceived to have failed) in our efforts to comply with our data privacy and security obligations.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
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Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt