Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Price & Analysis
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) closed at USD 125.12 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 11.66% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 141.63; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 123.36–133.1 on volume of 3,916,104 shares. Market capitalization is $11.68B, with a 52-week range of USD 60.28–201.99 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/SMTC.md
Key facts (SMTC)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 26, 2026): revenue $1.17B, net income $154M (13.1% margin), free cash flow $193M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 75.8x.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SMTC (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 217.07 (range 186–300).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +82.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +60.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-23, EPS estimate USD 1.13, revenue estimate $416M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (SMTC)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $741M | $757M | $869M | $909M | $1.05B | $1.17B |
| Gross profit | $461M | $479M | $296M | $457M | $542M | — |
| Operating income | $145M | $92.8M | -$944M | $49.9M | $32.6M | $94.4M |
| Net income | $126M | $61.4M | -$1.09B | -$162M | -$40.4M | $154M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.92 | $0.96 | -$17.03 | -$2.26 | -$0.46 | — |
| Free cash flow | $177M | $98.4M | -$123M | $50.1M | $171M | $193M |
| Gross margin | 62.2% | 63.3% | 34.1% | 50.2% | 51.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 19.6% | 12.3% | -108.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 8.0% |
| Net margin | 17.0% | 8.1% | -125.7% | -17.8% | -3.8% | 13.1% |
| Revenue growth | +24.5% | +2.1% | +14.8% | +4.7% | +15.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $292M | $248M | $143M | $164M | $195M | — |
| Total debt | $172M | $1.34B | $1.37B | $552M | $491M | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 26, 2026) (SMTC)
P/E 75.8x · P/S 9.9x · P/FCF 60.5x · P/B 15.6x · FCF yield 1.65% · Earnings yield 1.32%
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (SMTC)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold SMTC. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.02% | $2.2M | Added +103.8% |
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | <0.01% | $499K | New position |
Analysts (SMTC)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 217.07 (low 186, high 300).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | TD Cowen | Reiterated | Buy | $215 |
| 2026-10-16 | Northland Capital Markets | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $186 |
| 2026-10-16 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $220 → $200 |
| 2026-10-13 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $155 → $230 |
| 2026-10-05 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $188 → $220 |
| 2026-10-01 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $200 → $225 |
| 2026-09-23 | Seaport Global | Initiated | Buy | $200 |
| 2026-08-27 | Northland Capital Markets | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $182 |
| 2026-08-27 | Baird | Target raised | Outperform | $225 → $300 |
| 2026-08-26 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $175 → $195 |
| 2026-08-26 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $225 → $230 |
| 2026-08-26 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $200 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (SMTC)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +82.2% | +60.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +82.5% | +9.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 79.1% | 64.1% |
| Max drawdown | -40.7% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) | -84.2% (Nov 2021→Oct 2023) |
SMTC revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jul 26, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Semiconductor Products | $243.5M | 71.2% | +44.3% |
| — Signal Integrity (part of Total Semiconductor Products) | $126.2M | 36.9% | +64.4% |
| — Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless (part of Total Semiconductor Products) | $117.4M | 34.3% | +27.5% |
| IoT Systems and Connectivity | $98.3M | 28.8% | +10.8% |
| Total revenue | $341.9M | 100% | — |
SMTC revenue by product line (quarter ended Apr 26, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $264.9M | 91.0% | +18.4% |
| Service | $26.1M | 9.0% | -4.2% |
| Total revenue | $291.0M | 100% | — |
SMTC revenue by region (fiscal year ended Jan 25, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific | $697.6M | 66.4% | +21.4% |
| North America | $231.9M | 22.1% | +13.4% |
| Europe | $120.5M | 11.5% | -7.4% |
| Total revenue | $1.05B | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
SMTC suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | HieFo | “However, following the HieFo Acquisition, we now operate foundries that produce certain semiconductor devices used across data center interconnects and intra-data center interconnects.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Mar 23, 2026.
SMTC customer concentration
In the period ended Jul 26, 2026, 2 direct customers each accounted for at least 10% (15%, 12%) of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Aug 26, 2026. The company does not name them.
SMTC analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Oct 2026) | $1.13 | $0.73 | +56.0% | $416.4M | 15 |
| Next quarter (ends Jan 2027) | $1.29 | $0.81 | +59.9% | $449.6M | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Jan 2027) | $3.65 | $2.66 | +37.4% | $1.50B | 15 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Jan 2028) | $6.67 | $3.90 | +71.0% | $2.04B | 15 |
SMTC options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±19.9% (±$24.55) by Nov 27, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 23, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±11.6% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | 7 | 91.1% | ±11.0% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 14 | 87.4% | ±14.4% |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 21 | 83.4% | ±16.6% |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 81.7% | ±18.6% |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 35 | 78.6% | ±19.9% |
| Dec 4, 2026 | 42 | 85.7% | ±23.7% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 83.5% | ±26.6% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 77.8% | ±30.2% |
30-day implied volatility 79.2% vs 93.4% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 1.18. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC)
| Price | USD 125.12 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 11.66% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 141.63 |
| Open | USD 132.33 |
| Day Range | USD 123.36 – 133.1 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 60.28 – 201.99 |
| Volume | 3,916,104 shares |
| Market Cap | $11.68B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (SMTC)
Nexqual's technical model rates SMTC "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 34.54 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 156.86) |
| MACD | -7.92 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (SMTC)
Wall Street analysts rate SMTC "Buy" based on 16 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 217.07 (range USD 186–300), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 16 |
| Mean Target | USD 217.07 |
| High Target | USD 300 |
| Low Target | USD 186 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 15 / 1 / 0 |
Earnings (SMTC)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-23 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 1.13 |
| Revenue Estimate | $416.43M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | USD 0.71 vs est 0.61 ▲ beat |
| 2026-04-30 | USD 0.51 vs est 0.45 ▲ beat |
| 2026-01-31 | USD 0.44 vs est 0.43 ▲ beat |
| 2025-10-31 | USD 0.48 vs est 0.45 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (SMTC)
| Total Revenue | $1.17B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +32.70% |
| Gross Margin | +52.90% |
| Operating Margin | +16.22% |
| Profit Margin | +13.12% |
| ROE | +23.66% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.7 |
| Current Ratio | 1.7 |
| Total Cash | $204.05M |
| Total Debt | $524.99M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jul 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $193.11M (16.4% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
Financial Health Score (SMTC)
Nexqual rates Semtech Corporation's overall financial health "Strong" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +15% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 53%, operating 16% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Solid — $195M cash and investments vs $491M debt (Jan 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Strong — FCF $193M (last 4 quarters to Jul 2026, SEC), 16% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 24%, ROA 5.8% |
Ownership (SMTC)
| Insider Ownership | +0.77% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +102.20% |
| Shares Outstanding | 93.33M |
| Float | 92.77M |
| Short % of Float | +7.75% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
Leadership (SMTC)
Semtech Corporation is led by Hong Q. Hou, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Hong Q. Hou |
|---|---|
| Executive VP & CFO | Mark Lin |
| Executive VP & COO | Asaf Silberstein |
| Chief Quality Officer & CTO | J. Michael Wilson |
| Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | Mitchell J. Haws |
Major Backers & Investors (SMTC)
Notable institutional backers of Semtech Corporation include Ameriprise Financial, Inc., SmallCap World Fund Inc, Jane Street Group, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | 3.7% |
| SmallCap World Fund Inc | 3.66% |
| Jane Street Group, LLC | 3.59% |
| Capital Group | 3.17% |
| Hood River Capital Management LLC | 2.41% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.11% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 10.45% |
| Vanguard Group | 10.21% |
| State Street | 3.63% |
| Geode Capital | 2.41% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC.
From Semtech Corporation's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-23)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- However, we believe that our innovation, deep expertise in wireless IoT communications, and the ability to provide an integrated end-to-end IoT solution to our customers with security features gives us an opportunity to differentiate ourselves.
- We believe that the diversity of our applications allows us to take advantage of areas of relative market strength and reduces our vulnerability to competitive pressure in any one area.
- We have built a team of experienced engineers who combine industry expertise with advanced semiconductor design expertise to meet customer requirements and enable our customers to get their products to market rapidly.
- We also focus on selling our complete portfolio of products to our existing customers, as we believe the technical expertise of our marketing and sales teams allows us to identify and capitalize on cross-selling opportunities.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We previously identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting. We may discover additional weaknesses in the future and otherwise may fail to achieve and maintain effective disclosure controls, procedures and internal control over financial reporting, which could cause our results of operations, stock price and investor confidence in our Company to be adversely affected.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SITM | SiTime Corporation | USD 462.72 | ▼ 9.13% |
| LSCC | Lattice Semiconductor Corporati | USD 96.4 | ▼ 10.57% |
| RMBS | Rambus, Inc. | USD 85.73 | ▼ 7.62% |
| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | USD 82.39 | ▲ 0.21% |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions Hold | USD 229.73 | ▼ 15.87% |
| TSEM | Tower Semiconductor Ltd. | USD 167.71 | ▼ 11.52% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:18 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt