The Timken Company (TKR) Stock Price & Analysis
The Timken Company (TKR) closed at USD 108.4 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 5.71% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 114.97; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 106.93–113 on volume of 863,859 shares. Market capitalization is $7.51B, with a 52-week range of USD 73.62–146.37 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/TKR.md
Key facts (TKR)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.76B, net income $259M (5.4% margin), free cash flow $386M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 29.0x (avg 16.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 12.4x, net debt $1.65B.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TKR (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $10.0M; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($10.0M); 3 by opportunistic insiders (3 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 144.2 (range 130–160).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +41.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +64.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.48, revenue estimate $1.21B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (TKR)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.13B | $4.50B | $4.77B | $4.57B | $4.58B | $4.76B |
| Gross profit | $1.10B | $1.29B | $1.51B | $1.44B | $1.39B | — |
| Operating income | $513M | $607M | $657M | $611M | $541M | $502M |
| Net income | $369M | $407M | $394M | $353M | $288M | $259M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.79 | $5.48 | $5.47 | $4.99 | $4.11 | — |
| Free cash flow | $239M | $285M | $357M | $306M | $406M | $386M |
| Gross margin | 26.7% | 28.6% | 31.6% | 31.5% | 30.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 12.4% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% |
| Net margin | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% |
| Revenue growth | +17.6% | +8.8% | +6.1% | -4.1% | +0.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | — | $332M | $419M | $373M | $364M | — |
| Total debt | $1.42B | $1.92B | $2.15B | $2.05B | $1.90B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (TKR)
P/E 29.0x · P/S 1.6x · EV/EBITDA 12.4x · EV/Sales 1.9x · P/FCF 19.5x · P/B 2.4x · FCF yield 5.13% · Earnings yield 3.44% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.32% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.79% · Net debt $1.65B · EV $9.16B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 20.5x, Dec 2024 14.3x, Dec 2023 14.7x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (TKR)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold TKR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Den Berg Management I | 1.72% | $8.2M | Reduced -5.3% | |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $20.7M | Added +54.9% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $291K | Unchanged |
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (TKR)
0 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Kyle Richard G | Director | 13,637 | $1.7M | 6.9% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-05 | Rajendra Ajita G | Director | 8,450 | $1.1M | 29.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-27 | Kyle Richard G | Director | 8,448 | $1.1M | 4.1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-08 | Kyle Richard G | Director | 37,181 | $4.4M | 15.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-08 | Timken John M Jr | Director | 15,000 | $1.7M | 2.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (TKR)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 144.2 (low 130, high 160).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $160 → $140 |
| 2026-10-01 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated | Outperform | $150 |
| 2026-09-01 | B of A Securities | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $129 → $135 |
| 2026-08-11 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $158 → $157 |
| 2026-07-21 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $147 → $150 |
| 2026-07-14 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $140 → $160 |
| 2026-07-13 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $140 → $160 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $150 → $160 |
| 2026-07-10 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $128 → $142 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (TKR)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +41.4% | +64.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +41.6% | +10.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.6% | 29.6% |
| Max drawdown | -25.2% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -33.4% (May 2024→Mar 2025) |
TKR revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engineered Bearings | $807.0M | 64.0% | +3.8% |
| Industrial Motion | $453.9M | 36.0% | +14.6% |
| Total revenue | $1.26B | 100% | — |
TKR revenue by region (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $557.0M | 44.2% | +4.8% |
| Europe / Middle East / Africa | $318.1M | 25.2% | +11.7% |
| Asia-Pacific | $259.7M | 20.6% | +9.7% |
| Americas excluding the United States | $126.1M | 10.0% | +4.8% |
| Total revenue | $1.26B | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
TKR customer concentration
In the period ended Jun 30, 2026, a single direct customer accounted for 7% of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026. The company does not name it.
TKR company outlook (results filed Aug 4, 2026)
- “Timken is updating its 2026 outlook, with full-year earnings per diluted share now forecasted to be in the range of $3.75 to $4.05 and is raising its adjusted earnings per diluted share to the range of $6.05 to $6.35.”
- “The company is planning for 2026 revenue to be up approximately 5.5 percent in total at the midpoint from 2025, a slight increase from its prior outlook of 5 percent growth at the midpoint. 2 Conference Call Information Timken will host a conference call today at 11 a.m.”
- “Certain statements in this release (including statements regarding the company's forecasts, beliefs, estimates, plans and expectations) that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.”
- “In particular, the statements related to expectations regarding the company's future financial performance, including information under the heading "2026 Outlook," are forward-looking.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
TKR analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $1.48 | $1.51 | -1.9% | $1.21B | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $1.28 | $1.34 | -4.8% | $1.15B | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $6.27 | $6.16 | +1.8% | $4.85B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $7.28 | $7.23 | +0.6% | $5.00B | 12 |
TKR options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±10.5% (±$11.40) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 4, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±4.6% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 46.1% | ±10.5% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 38.6% | ±12.3% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 38.0% | ±19.3% |
| May 21, 2027 | 210 | 39.2% | ±23.7% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 237 | 39.2% | ±25.1% |
| Aug 20, 2027 | 301 | 38.7% | ±27.8% |
| Nov 19, 2027 | 392 | 38.8% | ±31.7% |
30-day implied volatility 45.3% vs 27.9% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.33. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC)
| Price | USD 108.4 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 5.71% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 114.97 |
| Open | USD 112.58 |
| Day Range | USD 106.93 – 113 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 73.62 – 146.37 |
| Volume | 863,859 shares |
| Market Cap | $7.51B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (TKR)
Nexqual's technical model rates TKR "SELL" based on 2 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 31.2 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 119.28) |
| MACD | -2.24 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (TKR)
Wall Street analysts rate TKR "Buy" based on 12 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 144.2 (range USD 130–160), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 12 |
| Mean Target | USD 144.2 |
| High Target | USD 160 |
| Low Target | USD 130 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 7 / 5 / 0 |
Earnings (TKR)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-04 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 1.48 |
| Revenue Estimate | $1.21B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 1.83 vs est 1.62 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 1.67 vs est 1.5 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 1.14 vs est 1.09 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 1.37 vs est 1.24 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (TKR)
| Total Revenue | $4.76B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +7.50% |
| Gross Margin | +32.67% |
| Operating Margin | +20.50% |
| Profit Margin | +5.44% |
| ROE | +8.54% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.66 |
| Current Ratio | 3.1 |
| Total Cash | $399.10M |
| Total Debt | $2.20B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $385.50M (8.1% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
Financial Health Score (TKR)
Nexqual rates The Timken Company's overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
| Growth | Mixed — Revenue +0.2% YoY (annual), slow |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 33%, operating 21% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $399M cash and investments vs $2.05B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — FCF $386M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), 8% margin |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE 9%, ROA 6.3% |
Ownership (TKR)
| Insider Ownership | +7.94% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +96.25% |
| Shares Outstanding | 69.30M |
| Float | 66.59M |
| Short % of Float | +7.26% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
Leadership (TKR)
The Timken Company is led by Lucian Boldea, CEO, President & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
| CEO, President & Director | Lucian Boldea |
|---|---|
| Executive VP & CFO | Michael A. Discenza |
| Executive VP & COO | Stephen P. Ribaudo |
| Senior VP & Chief Technology Officer | John R. Szarka |
| Vice President of Investor Relations | Neil Andrew Frohnapple |
Major Backers & Investors (TKR)
Notable institutional backers of The Timken Company include FMR, LLC, Brown Advisory Inc., JPMorgan, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 2.87% |
| Brown Advisory Inc. | 2.46% |
| JPMorgan | 2.2% |
| Victory Capital Management Inc. | 1.94% |
| AIM Sector Funds (Invesco Sector Funds)-Invesco Small Cap Value Fund | 0.88% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 8.89% |
| BlackRock | 8.64% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 4.44% |
| State Street | 2.94% |
| Geode Capital | 2.62% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC.
From The Timken Company's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-13)
Partnerships
- The Company partners with an online platform, Aperian®, to help its employees further their team skills, collaboration and cultural acumen.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Current and future environmental health and safety laws, regulations, and customer requirements impose substantial costs and limitations on our operations and compliance may be more costly than we expect.
- We are subject to the risk of potentially substantial environmental liability and limitations on our operations due to current environmental laws and regulations and future environmental laws and regulations could impose additional potential risks and limitations.
- Compliance with environmental, health and safety legislation and regulatory requirements may prove to be more limiting and costly than we anticipate.
- We are subject to a wide variety of domestic and foreign laws and regulations that could adversely affect our results of operations, cash flow or financial condition.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTC | Toro Company (The) | USD 105.32 | ▲ 1.91% |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | USD 256.98 | ▼ 2.34% |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | USD 98.97 | ▲ 3.7% |
| RBC | RBC Bearings Incorporated | USD 478.03 | ▼ 5.24% |
| SNA | Snap-On Incorporated | USD 356.46 | ▼ 3.37% |
| KMT | Kennametal Inc. | USD 29.59 | ▼ 4.89% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:10 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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