Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Price & Analysis
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) closed at USD 141.08 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 4.47% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 135.05; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 133.95–141.12 on volume of 1,545,533 shares. Market capitalization is $13.00B, with a 52-week range of USD 123.15–168.36 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/TOL.md
Key facts (TOL)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 31, 2026): revenue $10.8B, net income $1.20B (11.1% margin), free cash flow $1.09B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 10.8x (avg 8.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TOL (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 2 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $13.6M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($13.6M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.14 on a 1–5 scale) (21 analysts), mean target USD 168.5 (range 118–195).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +4.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +145.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-08-18, EPS estimate USD 4.89, revenue estimate $3.52B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (TOL)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.79B | $10.3B | $9.99B | $10.8B | $11.0B | $10.8B |
| Gross profit | $1.94B | $2.49B | $2.63B | $3.02B | $2.75B | — |
| Operating income | $1.02B | $1.51B | $1.72B | $2.04B | $1.72B | $1.49B |
| Net income | $834M | $1.29B | $1.37B | $1.57B | $1.35B | $1.20B |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.63 | $10.90 | $12.36 | $15.01 | $13.49 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.24B | $915M | $1.19B | $937M | $1.03B | $1.09B |
| Gross margin | 22.1% | 24.2% | 26.4% | 27.9% | 25.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 11.6% | 14.7% | 17.3% | 18.8% | 15.7% | 13.8% |
| Net margin | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% |
| Revenue growth | +24.2% | +16.9% | -2.7% | +8.5% | +1.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.64B | $1.35B | $1.30B | $1.30B | $1.26B | — |
Fiscal years end Oct. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 31, 2026) (TOL)
P/E 10.8x · P/S 1.2x · P/FCF 11.9x · P/B 1.5x · FCF yield 8.39% · Earnings yield 9.22% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.75% · Buyback yield (TTM) 5.24%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Oct 2025 10.0x, Oct 2024 9.8x, Oct 2023 5.7x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (TOL)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold TOL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenhaven Associates | 10.71% | $928M | Reduced -0.3% | |
| David Rolfe | Wedgewood Partners | 3.08% | $14.9M | Added +2.6% |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 0.05% | $18.1M | New position |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | <0.01% | $989K | Added +131.6% |
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (TOL)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | East Stephen F. | Director | 800 | $109K | 6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-18 | Parahus Robert | President & COO | 7,500 | $1.1M | 24.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-18 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | Executive Chairman | 77,957 | $12.2M | 16.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-15 | East Stephen F. | Director | 1,000 | $140K | 6.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (TOL)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.14 on a 1–5 scale), 21 analysts; mean target USD 168.5 (low 118, high 195).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | StoneX | Initiated | Buy | $165 |
| 2026-10-15 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $179 → $168 |
| 2026-10-15 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $158 → $148 |
| 2026-10-06 | Melius Research | Initiated | Buy | $179 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target lowered | Underweight | $122 → $118 |
| 2026-10-01 | Morgan Stanley | Initiated | Overweight | $159 |
| 2026-09-25 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $191 → $184 |
| 2026-08-28 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $161 → $170 |
| 2026-08-21 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $176 → $179 |
| 2026-08-20 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $165 → $170 |
| 2026-08-20 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $187 → $195 |
| 2026-08-20 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $185 → $191 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (TOL)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +4.0% | +145.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +4.0% | +19.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 34.3% | 33.4% |
| Max drawdown | -25.1% (Feb 2026→May 2026) | -44.0% (Dec 2021→Jun 2022) |
TOL revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jul 31, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| South | $655.8M | 24.7% | -14.5% |
| Mountain | $613.2M | 23.1% | -20.8% |
| Pacific | $556.7M | 20.9% | +0.4% |
| North | $450.4M | 16.9% | +2.7% |
| Mid-Atlantic | $381.7M | 14.4% | -6.8% |
| Total revenue | $2.66B | 100% | — |
TOL revenue by product line (quarter ended Jul 31, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home sales | $2.65B | 99.8% | -7.9% |
| Land sales and other | $6.3M | 0.2% | -90.2% |
| Management Fee | $953,000 | 0.0% | +3.0% |
| Total revenue | $2.66B | 100% | — |
TOL revenue by region (fiscal year ended Oct 31, 2025)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain | $2.98B | 27.1% | +13.7% |
| South | $2.72B | 24.8% | -3.4% |
| Pacific | $2.12B | 19.4% | -6.9% |
| North | $1.67B | 15.3% | +12.4% |
| Mid-Atlantic | $1.47B | 13.4% | -10.1% |
| Total revenue | $10.97B | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
Companies that name TOL in their SEC reports
| Relationship to TOL | Company | Filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) | 10-K Mar 2, 2026 | “Kennedy Lewis's in-house land banking servicer includes professionals with deep industry experience working at national homebuilders, including Lennar, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., Beazer Homes USA Inc., Toll Brothers, Inc., and Woodbridge Builders Corp., as well as land banking platforms at DW Partners, LP and Blackstone Credit, the credit investment arm of The Blackstone Group.” |
TOL analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Oct 2026) | $4.89 | $5.05 | -3.3% | $3.52B | 16 |
| Next quarter (ends Jan 2027) | $1.81 | $1.87 | -3.2% | $1.92B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Oct 2026) | $12.71 | $12.77 | -0.5% | $10.84B | 18 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Oct 2027) | $13.62 | $14.15 | -3.7% | $10.94B | 18 |
TOL options: expected move
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 36.5% | ±8.2% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 36.6% | ±11.6% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 34.3% | ±13.1% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 34.7% | ±17.6% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 237 | 36.1% | ±23.0% |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 329 | 35.5% | ±26.6% |
30-day implied volatility 35.2% vs 26.2% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 3.18. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC)
| Price | USD 141.08 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 4.47% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 135.05 |
| Open | USD 134.36 |
| Day Range | USD 133.95 – 141.12 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 123.15 – 168.36 |
| Volume | 1,545,533 shares |
| Market Cap | $13.00B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (TOL)
Nexqual's technical model rates TOL "NEUTRAL" based on 4 bullish and 3 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
| Overall Signal | NEUTRAL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 58.57 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 138.44) |
| MACD | -0.66 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (TOL)
Wall Street analysts rate TOL "Buy" based on 21 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 168.5 (range USD 118–195), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 21 |
| Mean Target | USD 168.5 |
| High Target | USD 195 |
| Low Target | USD 118 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 16 / 4 / 1 |
Earnings (TOL)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-08-18 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 4.86 |
| Revenue Estimate | $3.52B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | USD 2.97 vs est 2.94 ▲ beat |
| 2026-04-30 | USD 2.72 vs est 2.58 ▲ beat |
| 2026-01-31 | USD 2.19 vs est 2.12 ▲ beat |
| 2025-10-31 | USD 4.58 vs est 4.89 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (TOL)
| Total Revenue | $10.76B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -9.70% |
| Gross Margin | +24.83% |
| Operating Margin | +14.56% |
| Profit Margin | +11.14% |
| ROE | +14.39% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.34 |
| Current Ratio | 4.5 |
| Total Cash | $1.06B |
| Total Debt | $2.91B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jul 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $1.09B (10.1% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
Financial Health Score (TOL)
Nexqual rates Toll Brothers, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
| Growth | Mixed — Revenue +1.1% YoY (annual), slow |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 25%, operating 15% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $1.06B cash vs $2.91B debt |
| Cash Flow | Solid — FCF $1.09B (last 4 quarters to Jul 2026, SEC), 10% margin |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE 14%, ROA 6.9% |
Ownership (TOL)
| Insider Ownership | +0.74% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +96.37% |
| Shares Outstanding | 92.15M |
| Float | 91.38M |
| Short % of Float | +5.45% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
Leadership (TOL)
Toll Brothers, Inc. is led by Karl K. Mistry, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
| CEO & Director | Karl K. Mistry |
|---|---|
| Executive Chairman | Douglas C. Yearley |
| COO & President | Seth J. Ring |
| Executive VP & CFO | Gregg L. Ziegler |
| Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer | Wendy L. Marlett |
Major Backers & Investors (TOL)
Notable institutional backers of Toll Brothers, Inc. include Greenhaven Associates, Inc., Capital Group, FMR, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Greenhaven Associates, Inc. | 6.11% |
| Capital Group | 5.7% |
| FMR, LLC | 4.46% |
| SmallCap World Fund Inc | 2.09% |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 2.06% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 10.61% |
| Vanguard Group | 9.19% |
| State Street | 3.8% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 3.37% |
| Geode Capital | 2.7% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.
From Toll Brothers, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2025-12-19)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- On September 18, 2025, we announced our intention to exit the multifamily development business, beginning with the sale of our interests in approximately half of our portfolio, as well as our operating platform, to Kennedy Wilson for a purchase price of approximately $380 million, as adjusted to reflect investments in certain assets since the September announcement.
- Our master-planned communities enable us to offer multiple home types and sizes to a broad range of move-up, first-time, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers.
- We have developed a number of home designs with features such as single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suites, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers that we believe appeal to this category of home buyer.
- Option agreements enable us to obtain necessary governmental approvals before we acquire title to the land, and allow us to acquire lots over a specified period of time at contracted prices.
Partnerships
- While historically most of our homes have been sold on a build-to-order basis where we do not begin construction of the home until we have a signed contract with a customer, over the past three years, we have increased the number of spec homes in most of our communities, which are homes started without a signed agreement with a customer.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Government regulations and legal challenges may delay the start or completion of our communities, increase our expenses, or limit our home building activities, which could have a negative impact on our operations.
- Product liability claims and litigation and warranty claims that arise in the ordinary course of business may be costly, which could adversely affect our business.
- We are subject to extensive environmental regulations, which may cause us to incur additional operating expenses, subject us to longer construction cycle times, or result in material fines or harm to our reputation.
- Failure by our employees or representatives to comply with laws and regulations may harm us.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVR | NVR, Inc. | USD 6,110.63 | ▲ 3.57% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | USD 84.45 | ▲ 8.69% |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | USD 119.48 | ▲ 5.84% |
| IBP | Installed Building Products, In | USD 198.13 | ▲ 5.46% |
| SKY | Champion Homes, Inc. | USD 79.72 | ▲ 5.27% |
| DHI | D.R. Horton, Inc. | USD 147.66 | ▲ 6.25% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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