Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) Stock Price & Analysis
Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) closed at USD 14.81 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, up 1.86% on the day. The US market is currently closed; this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 14.54; the Oct 15, 2026 session ranged USD 14.63–15.2 on volume of 199,016 shares. Market capitalization is $584.72M, with a 52-week range of USD 14.18–21.4 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/VEL.md
Key facts (VEL)
- Valuation: P/E 5.4x (avg 9.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.33 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 20.83 (range 19–23.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -18.2% vs S&P 500 +18.1%; 5Y +18.8% vs S&P 500 +85.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.71, revenue estimate $52.9M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (VEL)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $29.2M | $32.2M | $52.3M | $68.4M | $105M | $108M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.86 | $0.94 | $1.52 | $1.91 | $2.75 | — |
| Free cash flow | $57.5M | $48.3M | $48.7M | $37.5M | $17.9M | $22.5M |
| Cash + short-term investments | $36.0M | $45.2M | $40.6M | $49.9M | $92.1M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (VEL)
P/E 5.4x · P/FCF 26.0x · P/B 0.8x · FCF yield 3.85% · Earnings yield 18.42% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.28%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 7.5x, Dec 2024 10.2x, Dec 2023 11.4x.
Analysts (VEL)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.33 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 20.83 (low 19, high 23.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $22 → $20 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Underweight | $20 → $19 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (VEL)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-16) | 5Y (from 2021-10-11) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -18.2% | +18.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +18.1% | +85.1% |
| Per year | -18.2% | +3.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 25.4% | 30.4% |
| Max drawdown | -30.0% (Dec 2025→Oct 2026) | -38.9% (Dec 2021→Mar 2023) |
Key Statistics (as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC)
| Price | USD 14.81 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 1.86% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 14.54 |
| Open | USD 14.68 |
| Day Range | USD 14.63 – 15.2 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 14.18 – 21.4 |
| Volume | 199,016 shares |
| Market Cap | $584.72M |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (VEL)
Nexqual's technical model rates VEL "STRONG SELL" based on 0 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| Overall Signal | STRONG SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 32.94 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 16.82) |
| MACD | -0.63 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (VEL)
Wall Street analysts rate VEL "Buy" based on 3 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 20.83 (range USD 19–23.5), per Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 3 |
| Mean Target | USD 20.83 |
| High Target | USD 23.5 |
| Low Target | USD 19 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 2 / 0 / 1 |
Earnings (VEL)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.71 |
| Revenue Estimate | $52.86M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.71 vs est 0.65 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.68 vs est 0.64 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.93 vs est 0.67 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.69 vs est 0.6 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (VEL)
| Total Revenue | $284.11M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +22.70% |
| Gross Margin | +75.67% |
| Operating Margin | +52.09% |
| Profit Margin | +37.91% |
| ROE | +16.32% |
| Debt / Equity | 9.72 |
| Current Ratio | 15.55 |
| Total Cash | $76.23M |
| Total Debt | $7.05B |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Financial Health Score (VEL)
Nexqual rates Velocity Financial, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| Growth | Critical — Revenue -21% YoY (annual), sharp decline |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 76%, operating 52% |
| Balance Sheet | Weak — $76M cash vs $7.05B debt |
| Cash Flow | N/A — Not meaningful for banks and lenders: lending and trading move operating cash flow by billions each year (SEC industry: Finance Services) |
| Efficiency | Solid — ROE 16%, ROA 1.5% |
Ownership (VEL)
| Insider Ownership | +2.97% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +99.20% |
| Shares Outstanding | 39.48M |
| Float | 5.25M |
| Short % of Float | +30.68% |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Leadership (VEL)
Velocity Financial, Inc. is led by Christopher D. Farrar (age 58), Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director, per Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
| Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director | Christopher D. Farrar (age 58) |
|---|---|
| Chief Financial Officer | Mark R. Szczepaniak (age 67) |
| Executive Vice President of Capital Markets | Jeffrey T. Taylor (age 56) |
| Chief Operating Officer | Joseph A. Cowell (age 45) |
| Chief Technology Officer | Dean Thevaos |
Major Backers & Investors (VEL)
Notable institutional backers of Velocity Financial, Inc. include Snow Phipps Group, LLC, Beach Point Capital Management LP, American Century Companies Inc, according to Nexqual as of October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Snow Phipps Group, LLC | 33.82% |
| Beach Point Capital Management LP | 16.67% |
| American Century Companies Inc | 1.84% |
| Adage Capital Partners GP L.L.C. | 1.28% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Allianz Asset Management GmbH | 32.01% |
| BlackRock | 5.51% |
| Vanguard Group | 2.43% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 1.86% |
| Geode Capital | 0.69% |
| State Street | 0.63% |
Source: Nexqual, October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc | USD 33.32 | ▲ 3.87% |
| UWMC | UWM Holdings Corporation | USD 1.15 | ▲ 11.65% |
| PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services, In | USD 61.19 | ▲ 3.2% |
| RKT | Rocket Companies, Inc. | USD 11.07 | ▲ 2.22% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 16, 2026 at 05:19 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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