Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Price & Analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) closed at USD 140.83 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 9.81% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 156.14; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 139.1–154.27 on volume of 12,452,295 shares. Market capitalization is $47.27B, with a 52-week range of USD 132.66–203.66 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/VST.md
Key facts (VST)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $19.6B, net income $2.22B (11.3% margin), free cash flow $2.25B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 21.3x (avg 29.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 12.3x, net debt $19.2B.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold VST (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 0 new, 3 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $25.9M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.6M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.2M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.96 on a 1–5 scale) (23 analysts), mean target USD 208.86 (range 106–305).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -26.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +703.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-06, EPS estimate USD 2.59, revenue estimate $6.90B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (VST)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B | $15.6B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $17.7B | $19.6B |
| Operating income | -$1.51B | -$1.18B | $2.66B | $4.08B | $1.91B | $3.56B |
| Net income | -$1.27B | -$1.23B | $1.49B | $2.66B | $944M | $2.22B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.69 | -$3.26 | $3.58 | $7.00 | $2.18 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$1.24B | -$816M | $3.78B | $2.48B | $1.32B | $2.25B |
| Operating margin | -8.6% | -7.5% | 18.0% | 23.7% | 10.7% | 18.2% |
| Net margin | -7.2% | -7.8% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 5.3% | 11.3% |
| Revenue growth | +54.7% | -11.7% | -5.5% | +16.5% | +3.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.32B | $455M | $3.48B | $1.19B | $785M | — |
| Total debt | $10.7B | $12.6B | $14.4B | $16.3B | $18.8B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (VST)
P/E 21.3x · P/S 2.4x · EV/EBITDA 12.3x · EV/Sales 3.4x · P/FCF 21.0x · P/B 8.6x · FCF yield 4.77% · Earnings yield 4.69% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.65% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.43% · Net debt $19.2B · EV $66.4B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 59.1x, Dec 2024 18.3x, Dec 2023 9.7x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (VST)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold VST (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Tepper | Appaloosa Management | 4.70% | $351M | Added +9.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Harry Burn | Sound Shore | 2.82% | $91.6M | Added +20.4% | Q2 2026 |
| John Armitage | Egerton Capital | 1.34% | $132M | Added +96.0% | Q3 2026 |
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (VST)
8 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | 20,000 | $3.3M | 8.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-10-06 | Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 22,222 | $3.6M | 6.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-08 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | 20,000 | $3.0M | 8.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-08 | Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 44,444 | $6.7M | 11.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-18 | Sult John R | Director | 6,500 | $1.1M | 8.4% | Yes (adopted March 16, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-18 | Acosta Arcilia | Director | 15,000 | $2.5M | 31.5% | Yes (adopted March 16, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-16 | Helm Scott B | Director | 25,000 | $4.0M | 9.7% | Yes (adopted March 11, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-12…2026-06-15 | Barbas Paul M | Director | 488 | $73K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-02 | Montemayor Margaret | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 4,600 | $736K | 32% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-27 | Montemayor Margaret | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 5,000 | $825K | 25.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (VST)
2 purchases, $1.2M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31…2026-09-01 | Burke James A | President and CEO | 6,665 | $903K | 135.49 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-08-24 | Burke James A | President and CEO | 2,000 | $270K | 135 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
Analysts (VST)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.96 on a 1–5 scale), 23 analysts; mean target USD 208.86 (low 106, high 305).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | HSBC | Initiated | Buy | $190 |
| 2026-10-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $227 → $226 |
| 2026-10-16 | CIBC | Initiated | Outperformer | $201 |
| 2026-10-05 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $231 → $210 |
| 2026-10-01 | Bernstein | Reiterated | Outperform | $181 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mizuho | Initiated | Outperform | $169 |
| 2026-08-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $212 → $227 |
| 2026-08-19 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $222 → $221 |
| 2026-07-28 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $233 → $227 |
| 2026-07-28 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $208 → $212 |
| 2026-07-27 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $230 → $222 |
| 2026-07-15 | Scotiabank | Target raised | Sector Outperform | $293 → $298 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (VST)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -26.0% | +703.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -26.1% | +51.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 50.9% | 44.6% |
| Max drawdown | -33.0% (Oct 2025→May 2026) | -48.6% (Jan 2025→Mar 2025) |
VST revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | $3.34B | 83.2% | +11.5% |
| East | $774.0M | 19.3% | +44.9% |
| Texas | $203.0M | 5.1% | +35.3% |
| West | $79.0M | 2.0% | +16.2% |
| Total revenue | $4.02B | 100% | — |
VST revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Energy Charge In ERCOT | $2.25B | 56.1% | +2.1% |
| Retail Energy Charge In Northeast Midwest | $1.09B | 27.2% | +37.6% |
| Total other revenues | $266.0M | 6.6% | -50.1% |
| — Hedging revenues — realized (part of Total other revenues) | $188.0M | 4.7% | -49.2% |
| — Hedging revenues — unrealized (part of Total other revenues) | $57.0M | 1.4% | -59.6% |
| — Intersegment sales (part of Total other revenues) | $21.0M | 0.5% | -4.5% |
| Total revenue | $4.02B | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
VST suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | EFH | “Under the Tax Matters Agreement, we may engage in an otherwise restricted action if (a) we obtain written consent from EFH Corp., (b) such action or transaction is described in or otherwise consistent with the facts in the private letter ruling we obtained from the IRS in connection with the Spin-Off, (c) we obtain a supplemental private letter ruling from the IRS, or (d) we obtain an unqualified opinion of a nati…” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026.
VST company outlook (results filed Aug 7, 2026)
- “Guidance 3 ($ in millions) Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance Ranges Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA $6,800 - $7,600 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG $3,925 - $4,725 As of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged approximately 100% of its expected generation volumes for 2026, approximately 94% for 2027, and approximately 72% for 2028.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
VST analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $2.59 | $2.36 | +10.1% | $6.90B | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $3.14 | $2.65 | +18.5% | $6.38B | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $9.52 | $9.82 | -3.0% | $22.35B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $10.36 | $11.29 | -8.2% | $24.12B | 11 |
VST options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±10.1% (±$14.10) by Nov 6, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 6, 2026; the earnings reaction alone is priced at about ±5.0%. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±4.4% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | 7 | 55.6% | ±6.6% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 14 | 62.0% | ±10.1% |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 21 | 58.7% | ±11.2% |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 55.4% | ±12.5% |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 35 | 52.7% | ±13.2% |
| Dec 4, 2026 | 42 | 51.5% | ±14.2% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 49.9% | ±15.9% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 49.4% | ±19.0% |
30-day implied volatility 54.7% vs 60.4% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.91. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC)
| Price | USD 140.83 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 9.81% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 156.14 |
| Open | USD 153 |
| Day Range | USD 139.1 – 154.27 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 132.66 – 203.66 |
| Volume | 12,452,295 shares |
| Market Cap | $47.27B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (VST)
Nexqual's technical model rates VST "SELL" based on 2 bullish and 4 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 41.77 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 145.32) |
| MACD | 1.55 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (VST)
Wall Street analysts rate VST "Buy" based on 23 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 208.86 (range USD 106–305), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 23 |
| Mean Target | USD 208.86 |
| High Target | USD 305 |
| Low Target | USD 106 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 22 / 0 / 1 |
Earnings (VST)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-06 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 3.01 |
| Revenue Estimate | $6.90B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.76 vs est 1.66 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 2.87 vs est 1.87 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.54 vs est 2.3 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 1.75 vs est 1.96 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (VST)
| Total Revenue | $19.21B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -5.50% |
| Gross Margin | +38.31% |
| Operating Margin | +13.77% |
| Profit Margin | +11.55% |
| ROE | +42.96% |
| Debt / Equity | 3.73 |
| Current Ratio | 0.97 |
| Total Cash | $435.00M |
| Total Debt | $20.51B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $2.25B (11.5% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
Financial Health Score (VST)
Nexqual rates Vistra Corp.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
| Growth | Mixed — Revenue +3.0% YoY (annual), slow |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 38%, operating 14% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Critical — $435M cash and investments vs $19.6B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — FCF $2.25B (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), 12% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 43%, ROA 5.9% |
Ownership (VST)
| Insider Ownership | +0.77% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +92.13% |
| Shares Outstanding | 335.64M |
| Float | 312.99M |
| Short % of Float | +3.61% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
Leadership (VST)
Vistra Corp. is led by James A. Burke, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | James A. Burke |
|---|---|
| Executive VP & CFO | Kristopher E. Moldovan |
| Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer & Executive VP of Public Affairs | Stacey H. Dore |
| Executive VP & President of Retail | Scott A. Hudson |
| Vice President of Investor Relations | Eric Micek C.F.A. |
Major Backers & Investors (VST)
Notable institutional backers of Vistra Corp. include FMR, LLC, Morgan Stanley, NORGES BANK, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 4.22% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.65% |
| NORGES BANK | 1.73% |
| SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST-State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF | 1.66% |
| UBS Group AG | 1.61% |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.41% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 11.42% |
| BlackRock | 8.66% |
| State Street | 5.02% |
| Geode Capital | 2.69% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC.
From Vistra Corp.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-27)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our integrated power generation and wholesale operation allows us to efficiently obtain the electricity needed to serve our customers at the lowest cost.
- The integrated model enables us to structure products and contracts in a way that offers significant value compared to stand-alone retail electric providers.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Our businesses are subject to ongoing complex governmental regulations and legislation that have adversely impacted, and may in the future adversely impact, our businesses, results of operations, liquidity and financial condition.
- Our cost of compliance with existing and new environmental laws could have a material adverse effect on us.
- Changes to laws, rules or regulations related to market structures in the markets in which we participate may have a material adverse effect on our businesses, results of operation, liquidity and financial condition.
- We could be materially and adversely affected if current regulations are implemented or if new federal or state legislation or regulations are adopted to address global climate change, or if we are subject to lawsuits for alleged damage to persons or property resulting from greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporatio | USD 255.21 | ▼ 5.74% |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | USD 94.38 | ▼ 5.43% |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | USD 331.42 | ▼ 7.81% |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | USD 27.01 | ▼ 2.6% |
| TAC | TransAlta Corporation | USD 12.51 | ▼ 6.22% |
| HNRG | Hallador Energy Company | USD 11.22 | ▼ 2.01% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:19 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt