Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) Stock Price & Analysis
Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) closed at USD 4.2 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 2.10% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 4.29; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 4.19–4.4 on volume of 449,177 shares. Market capitalization is $207.97M, with a 52-week range of USD 3.57–9.25 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/XPOF.md
Key facts (XPOF)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $288M, net income -$42.6M (-14.8% margin), free cash flow -$8.1M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $964K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.88 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 5.6 (range 4.5–8).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -40.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -73.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.15, revenue estimate $63.0M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (XPOF)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $155M | $243M | $318M | $320M | $315M | $288M |
| Gross profit | — | $197M | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -$30.8M | $13.3M | $34.9M | -$53.6M | $19.8M | $17.9M |
| Net income | -$18.8M | $1.2M | -$4.0M | -$67.7M | -$38.7M | -$42.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.85 | -$0.88 | -$0.52 | -$2.27 | -$1.47 | — |
| Free cash flow | $10.8M | $43.1M | $25.3M | $7.0M | $24.7M | -$8.1M |
| Gross margin | — | 80.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | -19.9% | 5.5% | 11.0% | -16.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| Net margin | -12.1% | 0.5% | -1.3% | -21.1% | -12.3% | -14.8% |
| Revenue growth | +45.5% | +56.8% | +30.7% | +0.8% | -1.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $21.3M | $37.4M | $37.1M | $32.7M | $45.9M | — |
| Total debt | $133M | $138M | $329M | $352M | $525M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (XPOF)
P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 25.2x · EV/Sales 2.5x · FCF yield -3.88% · Earnings yield -20.48% · Net debt $497M · EV $705M
Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (XPOF)
1 purchase, $964K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19…2026-05-20 | Voss Capital, Lp | 200,005 | $964K | 4.82 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (XPOF)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.88 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 5.6 (low 4.5, high 8).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $7 → $4.5 |
| 2026-08-10 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Neutral | $7 → $5 |
| 2026-08-10 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Neutral | $6 → $5 |
| 2026-08-07 | Guggenheim | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (XPOF)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -40.1% | -73.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -40.2% | -23.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 90.6% | 83.9% |
| Max drawdown | -59.4% (Feb 2026→Sep 2026) | -89.0% (Apr 2023→Sep 2026) |
XPOF revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franchise | $44.0M | 66.7% | -3.0% |
| Franchise Marketing Fund Revenue | $8.7M | 13.2% | -7.7% |
| Equipment Revenue | $7.1M | 10.7% | -25.8% |
| Service Other | $5.6M | 8.6% | -10.0% |
| Merchandise Revenue | $542,000 | 0.8% | -90.3% |
| Total revenue | $66.0M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
XPOF suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | California | “We depend on a single third-party supplier, Fit Commerce ("FC"), to exclusively manufacture, distribute, and manage most retail products sold in our franchised studios and through related online channels under the Retail Supply Agreement effective December 1, 2025 (and, subject to terms and conditions outlined in such agreement).” |
| Customer | ClubReady | “We and franchisees in the North America Region, rely heavily on information systems provided by ClubReady, LLC ("ClubReady"), including the point-of-sale processing systems in our franchised studios and other information systems managed by ClubReady, to interact with franchisees and customers and to collect and maintain customer information or other personally identifiable information, including for the operation …” |
| Partner | HPS Investment Partners | “On December 8, 2025 (the "Closing Date"), we entered into a Financing Agreement with HPS Investment Partners LLC, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the lenders party thereto (the "Credit Agreement"), which consisted of a term loan facility in a principal amount of $525 million (the " Closing Date Term Loans") and a revolving credit facility in a principal amount of $25 million (the "Revolving Loans").” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Mar 4, 2026.
XPOF company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “The Company is revising its full year 2026 outlook, which compares to 2025 results as follows: Net new studio openings of approximately 150, or a decrease of 25%.”
- “This compares to previous guidance of 150 to 170; 2 North America system-wide sales 1 in the range of $1.70 billion to $1.75 billion, or a decrease of 1% at the midpoint.”
- “This compares to previous guidance of $1.72 billion to $1.80 billion; Revenue in the range of $250.0 million to $260.0 million, representing a decrease of 19% at the midpoint.”
- “This compares to previous guidance of $260.0 million to $270.0 million; and Adjusted EBITDA 5 in the range of $91.0 million to $97.0 million, representing a decrease of 16% at the midpoint.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
XPOF analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.15 | $0.17 | -10.8% | $63.0M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.18 | $0.20 | -9.7% | $65.5M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.31 | $0.42 | -27.2% | $255.2M | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.65 | $0.78 | -16.3% | $268.8M | 3 |
XPOF options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±29.8% (±$1.25) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 5, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±20.8% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 106.6% | ±29.8% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 81.0% | ±31.5% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 85.7% | ±38.7% |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 175 | 81.8% | ±50.6% |
30-day implied volatility 98% vs 58% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC)
| Price | USD 4.2 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 2.10% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 4.29 |
| Open | USD 4.29 |
| Day Range | USD 4.19 – 4.4 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 3.57 – 9.25 |
| Volume | 449,177 shares |
| Market Cap | $207.97M |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (XPOF)
Nexqual's technical model rates XPOF "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 34.97 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 4.6) |
| MACD | -0.05 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (XPOF)
Wall Street analysts rate XPOF "Hold" based on 8 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 5.6 (range USD 4.5–8), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 8 |
| Mean Target | USD 5.6 |
| High Target | USD 8 |
| Low Target | USD 4.5 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 1 / 7 / 0 |
Earnings (XPOF)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.15 |
| Revenue Estimate | $63.00M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.02 vs est 0.13 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD -0.04 vs est 0.13 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD -0.91 vs est -0.03 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.34 vs est 0.12 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (XPOF)
| Total Revenue | $288.47M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -13.40% |
| Gross Margin | +66.63% |
| Operating Margin | +18.06% |
| Profit Margin | -14.76% |
| Current Ratio | 0.75 |
| Total Cash | $18.23M |
| Total Debt | $529.75M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | -$8.07M (-2.8% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Financial Health Score (XPOF)
Nexqual rates Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| Growth | Weak — Revenue -2% YoY (annual), declining |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 67%, operating 18% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Mixed — $25M cash and investments vs $522M debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Weak — FCF negative: -$8M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), burning cash |
| Efficiency | Mixed — No data |
Ownership (XPOF)
| Insider Ownership | +6.20% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +104.40% |
| Shares Outstanding | 42.22M |
| Float | 21.87M |
| Short % of Float | +50.24% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Leadership (XPOF)
Xponential Fitness, Inc. is led by Michael M. Nuzzo, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
| CEO & Director | Michael M. Nuzzo |
|---|---|
| President | Danielle Porto Parra |
| Vice President of Accounting | Jura Mazuran |
| Chief Marketing Officer | Steph So |
| President of International | Bob Kaufman |
Major Backers & Investors (XPOF)
Notable institutional backers of Xponential Fitness, Inc. include Voss Capital, LP, Shay Capital LLC, Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc., according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Voss Capital, LP | 16.1% |
| Shay Capital LLC | 6.38% |
| Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 4.63% |
| Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 4.28% |
| Kanen Wealth Management LLC | 4.03% |
| MSD Partners, L.P. | 3.92% |
| Hudson Bay Capital Management Lp | 2.96% |
| Grizzlyrock Capital, LLC | 2.78% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 5.77% |
| Vanguard Group | 3.45% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC.
From Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-04)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We believe our integrated platform, which supports our five brands, is a unique competitive advantage in the boutique health and wellness industry and enables us to accelerate growth and enhance operating margins.
- We believe our unique combination of a scaled multi-brand offering, resilient franchise model with the potential for strong unit economics and integrated platform has enabled us to build our leading market position in the large and growing U.S. boutique fitness industry.
- Our robust digital platform, with content spanning all of our fitness brands, is an important example of our ability to utilize our integrated platform to enhance our individual brand offerings and member retention.
- As an integrated platform, we utilize technology to provide improved functionality, drive efficiency and access compelling data across our brands.
Partnerships
- In partnership with its franchisees and master franchisees, XPO LLC offers energetic, accessible, and personalized workout experiences led by highly qualified instructors in studio locations throughout North America and internationally, with franchise, master franchise and international expansion agreements in 49 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, and 28 additional countries as of December 31, 2025.
- Through a franchisee first mindset we will provide franchisees with extensive support to help maximize the performance of their studios and enhance their return on investment.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Our ability to sell franchise licenses may be impacted due to government investigation regarding compliance with applicable federal and state franchise disclosure laws.
- We are subject to government investigations which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operation, cash flows and reputation.
- We, franchisees and master franchisees could be subject to claims related to health and safety risks to customers that arise while at our and franchisees' studios.
- Failure by us, franchisees, master franchisees or third-party service providers to comply with existing or future data privacy laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
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Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:58 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt