Alcoa Corporation (AA) Stock Price & Analysis
Alcoa Corporation (AA) closed at USD 38.7 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 4.98% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 40.73; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 38.35–39.28 on volume of 5,530,769 shares. Market capitalization is $10.21B, with a 52-week range of USD 35.12–84.38 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/AA.md
Latest Earnings Results (AA)
| Fiscal period | EPS (reported) | Revenue | Released | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.82 (adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted) | $3.70B | Oct 15, 2026, 4:14:04 PM ET · on Nexqual +27 seconds | SEC 8-K filing |
Reported actuals captured by Nexqual from SEC 8-K filings and company press releases; each figure confirmed by two independent extraction methods.
Key facts (AA)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $13.6B, net income $1.28B (9.4% margin), free cash flow $352M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 8.0x (avg 73.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), net debt $872M.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $845M vs operating income null over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈23.6x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 0% effective rate).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $1.3M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.3M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.36 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 54.59 (range 48–63).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -2.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -17.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-15, EPS estimate USD 1.56, revenue estimate $3.81B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (AA)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | $12.5B | $10.6B | $11.9B | $12.8B | $13.6B |
| Net income | $429M | -$123M | -$651M | $60.0M | $1.16B | $1.28B |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.26 | -$0.68 | -$3.65 | $0.26 | $4.37 | — |
| Free cash flow | $530M | $342M | -$440M | $42.0M | $567M | $352M |
| Net margin | 3.5% | -1.0% | -6.2% | 0.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% |
| Revenue growth | +30.9% | +2.5% | -15.3% | +12.7% | +7.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.81B | $1.36B | $944M | $1.14B | $1.60B | — |
| Total debt | $1.73B | $1.81B | $1.81B | $2.54B | $2.44B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (AA)
P/E 8.0x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈23.6x · P/S 0.8x · EV/Sales 0.8x · P/FCF 29.0x · P/B 1.4x · FCF yield 3.45% · Earnings yield 12.50% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.03% · Net debt $872M · EV $11.1B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 12.0x, Dec 2024 134.7x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (AA)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Bacchi Renato | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 700 | $36K | 0.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-27 | Jones Tammi A | EVP & CHRO | 15,628 | $791K | 23.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Hastings Andrew | EVP & Gen. Counsel | 6,000 | $305K | 13.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-22 | Reed Matthew T | EVP, Chief Operations Officer | 4,600 | $215K | 6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (AA)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.36 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 54.59 (low 48, high 63).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Argus Research | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | |
| 2026-10-20 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $76 → $56 |
| 2026-10-20 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $80 → $63 |
| 2026-10-20 | Freedom Broker | Target lowered | Buy | $76 → $62 |
| 2026-10-14 | Barclays | Initiated | Overweight | $55 |
| 2026-10-07 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $52 → $50 |
| 2026-10-07 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $53 → $50 |
| 2026-09-22 | Freedom Broker | Target raised | Buy | $64 → $76 |
| 2026-09-18 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $71 → $60 |
| 2026-07-22 | Argus Research | Target lowered | Buy | $73 → $55 |
| 2026-07-17 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Market Perform | $60 → $55 |
| 2026-07-17 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $55 → $52 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (AA)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -2.8% | -17.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -2.8% | -3.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 53.3% | 53.9% |
| Max drawdown | -53.7% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -74.1% (Mar 2022→Oct 2023) |
AA revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | $3.33B | 84.1% | +70.1% |
| Alumina | $1.09B | 27.5% | -28.2% |
| Total revenue | $3.97B | 100% | — |
AA revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | $3.45B | 86.9% | +72.9% |
| Alumina | $538.0M | 13.6% | -35.2% |
| Bauxite | $76.0M | 1.9% | -62.6% |
| Energy | $52.0M | 1.3% | +36.8% |
| Total revenue | $3.97B | 100% | — |
AA revenue by region (fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2025)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $6.12B | 47.7% | +14.0% |
| Australia | $3.01B | 23.5% | -3.7% |
| Netherlands | $2.34B | 18.3% | +6.8% |
| Brazil | $1.02B | 7.9% | +16.2% |
| Spain | $318.0M | 2.5% | +8.5% |
| Other Geographical Regions | $25.0M | 0.2% | -34.2% |
| Total revenue | $12.83B | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
AA suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Rio Tinto (RIO) | “ELYSIS® Limited Partnership (ELYSIS) is between wholly-owned subsidiaries of Alcoa (48.235%) and Rio Tinto Alcan Inc. (Rio Tinto) (48.235%), respectively, and Investissement Québec (3.53%), a company wholly-owned by the Government of Québec, Canada.” |
| Partner | ELYSIS | “Though we are investing in technology to reduce the production of GHG in the manufacture of our products, such as our ELYSIS partnership aluminum smelting technology and other technologies that are designed to limit the production of carbon in alumina refining, in certain aspects of our operations, our ability to reduce our GHG emissions is also dependent on the actions of third parties, especially energy provider…” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026.
Companies that name AA in their SEC reports
| Relationship to AA | Company | Filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | KAISER ALUMINUM CORP (KALU) | 10-K Feb 19, 2026 | “We rely on Alcoa Corporation ("Alcoa") for certain resources essential to the day-to-day operation of our business at Warrick.” |
| customer | Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) | 10-K Feb 12, 2026 | “The remaining guarantee, which had a fair value of $5 and $6 as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, relates to a long-term energy supply agreement that expires in 2047 at an Alcoa Corporation facility, for which the Company is secondarily liable in the event of a payment default by Alcoa Corporation.” |
AA company outlook (results filed Oct 15, 2026)
- “Alcoa reaffirms its 2026 Alumina segment production and shipment projection of 9.5 to 9.6 million metric tons and 11.5 to 11.6 million metric tons, respectively.”
- “Alcoa reaffirms its 2026 Aluminum segment production and shipment projection of 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons and 2.6 to 2.8 million metric tons, respectively.”
- “For the fourth quarter 2026, the Company expects to maintain the strong operational performance delivered in the third quarter 2026.”
- “Within the fourth quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects performance to be consistent sequentially.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
AA analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $1.56 | $1.56 | -0.3% | $3.81B | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends Mar 2027) | $1.38 | $1.41 | -2.8% | $3.61B | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $6.79 | $6.50 | +4.5% | $14.67B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $5.21 | $5.80 | -10.2% | $14.90B | 14 |
AA options: expected move
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | 7 | 49.8% | ±5.9% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 14 | 42.8% | ±7.0% |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 21 | 44.7% | ±8.9% |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 46.1% | ±10.4% |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 35 | 45.0% | ±11.4% |
| Dec 4, 2026 | 42 | 43.4% | ±12.0% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 44.7% | ±14.2% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 44.0% | ±17.0% |
30-day implied volatility 45.7% vs 31.1% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.52. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC)
| Price | USD 38.7 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 4.98% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 40.73 |
| Open | USD 38.75 |
| Day Range | USD 38.35 – 39.28 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 35.12 – 84.38 |
| Volume | 5,530,769 shares |
| Market Cap | $10.21B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (AA)
Nexqual's technical model rates AA "SELL" based on 3 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 25.94 (oversold) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 46.01) |
| MACD | -1.56 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (AA)
Wall Street analysts rate AA "Buy" based on 14 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 54.59 (range USD 48–63), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 14 |
| Mean Target | USD 54.59 |
| High Target | USD 63 |
| Low Target | USD 48 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 9 / 4 / 1 |
Earnings (AA)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-15 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 1.56 |
| Revenue Estimate | $3.81B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | USD 1.82 vs est 1.51 ▲ beat |
| 2026-06-30 | USD 2.12 vs est 2.19 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 1.4 vs est 1.55 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 1.26 vs est 1.01 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (AA)
| Total Revenue | $14.31B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +23.70% |
| Gross Margin | +22.76% |
| Operating Margin | +16.23% |
| Profit Margin | +10.68% |
| ROE | +20.58% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.58 |
| Current Ratio | 2.31 |
| Total Cash | $4.41B |
| Total Debt | $4.82B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $352.00M (2.6% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
Financial Health Score (AA)
Nexqual rates Alcoa Corporation's overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +8% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 23%, operating 16% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $1.35B cash and investments vs $2.22B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Mixed — FCF $352M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), slim 2.6% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 21%, ROA 7.5% |
Ownership (AA)
| Insider Ownership | +0.52% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +85.78% |
| Shares Outstanding | 263.91M |
| Float | 262.81M |
| Short % of Float | +4.45% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
Leadership (AA)
Alcoa Corporation is led by William F. Oplinger, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | William F. Oplinger |
|---|---|
| Executive VP & CFO | Molly S. Beerman |
| Executive VP & COO | Matthew T. Reed |
| Senior Vice President of Tax | Heather Hudak |
| Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets | Louis Langlois |
Major Backers & Investors (AA)
Notable institutional backers of Alcoa Corporation include FMR, LLC, Eagle Capital Management LLC, Fidelity, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 6.44% |
| Eagle Capital Management LLC | 4.5% |
| Fidelity | 2.13% |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 1.55% |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.36% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 11.11% |
| Vanguard Group | 9.44% |
| State Street | 4.12% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 2.22% |
| Geode Capital | 2.21% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC.
From Alcoa Corporation's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-26)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We focus on projects that build upon our existing operational strengths, enable us to serve customer demand growth, and that provide opportunities to unlock synergies through our technical expertise and scalable systems.
- We are the largest alumina producer outside of China and the largest supplier of third-party alumina outside of China.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We may be exposed to significant legal proceedings, investigations, or changes in foreign and/or U.S. federal, state, or local laws, regulations, or policies.
- Changes in tax laws or exposure to additional tax liabilities could affect our future profitability.
- Climate change, climate change legislation or regulations, and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and build operational resilience to extreme weather conditions may adversely impact our operations and markets.
- We are subject to a broad range of health, safety, and environmental laws, regulations, and other requirements in the jurisdictions in which we operate that may expose us to substantial claims, costs, and liabilities.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSTM | Constellium SE | USD 23.99 | ▼ 6.22% |
| CENX | Century Aluminum Company | USD 32.65 | ▼ 5.42% |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | USD 114.99 | ▼ 25.31% |
| GFI | Gold Fields Limited | USD 35.14 | ▼ 4.51% |
| NTR | Nutrien Ltd. | USD 69.09 | ▲ 1.42% |
| STLD | Steel Dynamics, Inc. | USD 239.9 | ▼ 3.25% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 12:51 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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