Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock Price & Analysis
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) closed at USD 35.1 on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, up 5.22% on the day. The US market is currently closed; this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 33.36; the Oct 28, 2026 session ranged USD 32.77–35.33 on volume of 2,740,462 shares. Market capitalization is $3.47B, with a 52-week range of USD 25.4–70.43 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/CENX.md
Key facts (CENX)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.67B, net income $604M (22.6% margin), free cash flow $151M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 5.8x (avg 47.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 4.8x, net debt $137M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CENX (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 60.2 (range 40–79).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +22.3% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y +165.7% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 2.75, revenue estimate $932M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (CENX)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.21B | $2.78B | $2.19B | $2.22B | $2.53B | $2.67B |
| Gross profit | $124M | $46.7M | $87.6M | $172M | $256M | — |
| Operating income | $66.0M | -$150M | $27.5M | $108M | $158M | $675M |
| Net income | -$167M | -$14.1M | -$43.1M | $337M | $41.8M | $604M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.85 | -$0.15 | -$0.47 | $3.27 | $0.42 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$148M | -$60.4M | $10.6M | -$107M | $84.8M | $151M |
| Gross margin | 5.6% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 3.0% | -5.4% | 1.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 25.3% |
| Net margin | -7.6% | -0.5% | -2.0% | 15.2% | 1.7% | 22.6% |
| Revenue growth | +37.8% | +25.5% | -21.3% | +1.6% | +13.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $29.0M | $54.3M | $88.8M | $32.9M | $134M | — |
| Total debt | $451M | $528M | $479M | $528M | $548M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (CENX)
P/E 5.8x · P/S 1.3x · EV/EBITDA 4.8x · EV/Sales 1.4x · P/FCF 23.0x · P/B 2.5x · FCF yield 4.35% · Earnings yield 17.37% · Net debt $137M · EV $3.61B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 89.3x, Dec 2024 5.3x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (CENX)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold CENX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $16.7M | Added +122.2% |
Analysts (CENX)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 60.2 (low 40, high 79).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Barclays | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $40 |
| 2026-10-08 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $60 → $55 |
| 2026-09-18 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $83 → $79 |
| 2026-08-11 | UBS | Initiated | Buy | $60 |
| 2026-07-07 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $86 → $74 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (CENX)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +22.3% | +165.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +22.3% | +21.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 63.1% | 71.2% |
| Max drawdown | -54.3% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -82.1% (Feb 2022→Sep 2022) |
CENX earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $2.46 | $2.30 | Beat +7.0% | +9.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $1.63 | $1.78 | Miss −8.4% | -5.9% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $1.25 | $1.30 | Miss −3.8% | +4.8% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +7.0% |
| May 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -5.7% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -16.6% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +22.2% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +2.6% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).
CENX recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Schedule 13G/A | BlackRock, Inc.: 10.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Schedule 13G | STATE STREET CORPORATION: 5.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | Quarterly results |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Schedule 13G/A | BlackRock, Inc.: 9.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed; each form links to the filing. Insider Form 4 filings are listed in the insider sections.
CENX revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | $701.9M | 93.3% | +23.4% |
| Alumina | $50.2M | 6.7% | -15.6% |
| Total revenue | $752.1M | 100% | — |
CENX revenue by region (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $630.9M | 83.9% | +61.0% |
| Iceland | $121.2M | 16.1% | -48.7% |
| Total revenue | $752.1M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
CENX suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Glencore | “For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023 we recorded $206.6 million, $191.3 million, and $191.7 million of revenue related to alumina sales to Glencore, respectively.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Mar 3, 2026.
CENX customer concentration
In the period ended Dec 31, 2025, a single direct customer accounted for 10% of revenue, per the company's 10-K filed Mar 3, 2026. The company does not name it.
CENX company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “The Company expects third quarter Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century to range between $325 million to $345 million .”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
CENX analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $2.75 | $3.48 | -21.0% | $932.2M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $3.34 | $3.88 | -13.9% | $1.02B | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $9.91 | $9.78 | +1.3% | $3.33B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $11.40 | $10.90 | +4.5% | $4.14B | 4 |
CENX options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±14.7% (±$5.15) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 5, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±9.3% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 23 | 74.1% | ±14.7% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 51 | 64.9% | ±19.4% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 79 | 60.5% | ±23.0% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 142 | 62.7% | ±31.0% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 232 | 62.2% | ±39.2% |
30-day implied volatility 68.6% vs 45.5% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.08. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC)
| Price | USD 35.1 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 5.22% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 33.36 |
| Open | USD 33.49 |
| Day Range | USD 32.77 – 35.33 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 25.4 – 70.43 |
| Volume | 2,740,462 shares |
| Market Cap | $3.47B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (CENX)
Nexqual's technical model rates CENX "NEUTRAL" based on 2 bullish and 3 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
| Overall Signal | NEUTRAL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 44.96 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 39.42) |
| MACD | -1.74 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (CENX)
Wall Street analysts rate CENX "Buy" based on 5 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 60.2 (range USD 40–79), per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 5 |
| Mean Target | USD 60.2 |
| High Target | USD 79 |
| Low Target | USD 40 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 4 / 1 / 0 |
Earnings (CENX)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 2.75 |
| Revenue Estimate | $932.17M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 2.46 vs est 2.3 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 1.63 vs est 1.78 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 1.25 vs est 1.3 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.56 vs est 0.84 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (CENX)
| Total Revenue | $2.67B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +19.70% |
| Gross Margin | +18.89% |
| Operating Margin | +28.14% |
| Profit Margin | +22.56% |
| ROE | +51.75% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.31 |
| Current Ratio | 2.75 |
| Total Cash | $343.40M |
| Total Debt | $480.00M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $151.20M (5.7% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
Financial Health Score (CENX)
Nexqual rates Century Aluminum Company's overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +14% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 19% (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $343M cash and investments vs $480M debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — FCF $151M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), 6% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 43%, ROA 21.0% (last 4 quarters, SEC) |
Ownership (CENX)
| Insider Ownership | +30.89% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +77.78% |
| Shares Outstanding | 98.99M |
| Float | 68.61M |
| Short % of Float | +13.72% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
Leadership (CENX)
Century Aluminum Company is led by Jesse E. Gary, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Jesse E. Gary |
|---|---|
| Executive VP & CFO | Peter A. Trpkovski |
| Executive Vice President of Global Operations | Gunnar Gudlaugsson |
| Vice President of Corporate Development & FP & A | Paul Daday |
| Senior Vice President of Human Resources | Kenneth L. Calloway |
Major Backers & Investors (CENX)
Notable institutional backers of Century Aluminum Company include Glencore Plc, Invesco, Sourcerock Group, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Glencore Plc | 29.99% |
| Invesco | 2.44% |
| Sourcerock Group, LLC | 2.29% |
| FMR, LLC | 1.98% |
| AIM Counselor Series TRT -Invesco Discovery Fd. | 1.37% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 10.41% |
| Vanguard Group | 7.82% |
| State Street | 5.6% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 2.23% |
| Geode Capital | 1.87% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC.
From Century Aluminum Company's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-03)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We believe our key competitive advantages are: Focus on Primary Aluminum Business.
- Our vertical integration with Jamalco allows us to integrate our aluminum smelting operations with this critical upstream supply of bauxite and alumina to create a more balanced and robust operational footprint, resulting in an organization that is better positioned to deliver strong performance through industry cycles.
Partnerships
- Construction of the project is expected to start by the end of 2026, subject to the completion of detailed engineering work and completion of negotiations with Public Service Company of Oklahoma on a competitive long-term power supply agreement.
- On January 26, 2026, we announced that we had entered into a joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium ("EGA") to build the first new primary aluminum smelter in the United States since our Mt.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Climate change, climate change legislation or environmental regulations may adversely impact our operations.
- Governmental regulatory bodies in the United States and other countries where we operate have adopted, or may in the future adopt, laws or enact other regulatory changes in response to the potential impacts of climate change.
- The future impact of these or other potential regulatory changes is uncertain and may be either voluntary or legislated and may impact our operations directly or indirectly through our customers or our supply chain.
- We are subject to a variety of environmental laws and regulations that may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position, results of operations and liquidity.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSTM | Constellium SE | USD 24.43 | ▼ 0.53% |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | USD 120.85 | ▲ 3.96% |
| AA | Alcoa Corporation | USD 40.21 | ▲ 0.7% |
| GFI | Gold Fields Limited | USD 36.23 | ▲ 1.4% |
| NTR | Nutrien Ltd. | USD 69.07 | ▼ 0.43% |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi | USD 265 | ▲ 0.95% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 29, 2026 at 06:47 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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