ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Stock Price & Analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) closed at USD 12.69 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 0.94% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 12.81; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 12.52–13.1 on volume of 6,733,334 shares. Market capitalization is $1.80B, with a 52-week range of USD 12.28–19.31 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/ARR.md
Key facts (ARR)
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $564K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($564K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $10K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 16.56 (range 14.5–18.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -5.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -43.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-21, EPS estimate USD 0.72, revenue estimate $95.3M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (ARR)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $15.4M | -$230M | -$67.9M | -$14.4M | $323M | -$52.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.24 | -$10.25 | -$1.86 | -$0.51 | $3.30 | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $356M | $87.3M | $222M | $68.0M | $63.3M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026) (ARR)
P/B 0.8x · Earnings yield -2.90% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 21.06% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.40%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 5.2x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (ARR)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Staton Daniel C | Chairman of the Board | 35,583 | $564K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (ARR)
1 purchase, $10K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Losyev Sergey | Co-Chief Investment Officer | 725 | $10K | 13.91 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Analysts (ARR)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 16.56 (low 14.5, high 18.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Jones Trading | Target lowered | Buy | $19 → $15.25 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (ARR)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -5.4% | -43.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -5.4% | -10.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 24.1% | 32.0% |
| Max drawdown | -26.8% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -64.2% (Nov 2021→Oct 2023) |
ARR suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Related party | BUCKLER Securities | “At December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, BUCKLER accounted for 47.0% and 45.7%, respectively, of our aggregate borrowings and had an amount at risk of 7.1% and 8.0%, respectively, of our total stockholders' equity with a weighted average maturity of 13 days and 15 days, respectively, on repurchase agreements, net (see Note 14 - Related Party Transactions).” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026.
ARR analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.72 | $0.73 | -1.1% | $95.3M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends Mar 2027) | $0.70 | $0.76 | -7.0% | $97.1M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $2.90 | $2.92 | -0.6% | $382.5M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $2.90 | $2.98 | -2.6% | $401.1M | 6 |
ARR options: expected move
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 26.7% | ±7.2% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 25.1% | ±9.6% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 22.5% | ±11.0% |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 175 | 24.9% | ±16.8% |
30-day implied volatility 26% vs 31% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.33. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC)
| Price | USD 12.69 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 0.94% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 12.81 |
| Open | USD 12.6 |
| Day Range | USD 12.52 – 13.1 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 12.28 – 19.31 |
| Volume | 6,733,334 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.80B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (ARR)
Nexqual's technical model rates ARR "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 27.46 (oversold) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 14.89) |
| MACD | -0.6 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (ARR)
Wall Street analysts rate ARR "Hold" based on 6 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 16.56 (range USD 14.5–18.5), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 6 |
| Mean Target | USD 16.56 |
| High Target | USD 18.5 |
| Low Target | USD 14.5 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 2 / 4 / 0 |
Earnings (ARR)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-21 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.72 |
| Revenue Estimate | $95.30M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | USD 0.71 vs est 0.71 ▼ miss |
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.72 vs est 0.72 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.76 vs est 0.74 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.71 vs est 0.77 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (ARR)
| Total Revenue | $490.69M |
|---|---|
| Gross Margin | +100.00% |
| Operating Margin | +87.00% |
| Profit Margin | +87.82% |
| ROE | +20.33% |
| Debt / Equity | 7.57 |
| Current Ratio | 1.14 |
| Total Cash | $1.64B |
| Total Debt | $19.52B |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
Financial Health Score (ARR)
Nexqual rates ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +491% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Operating margin 87% |
| Balance Sheet | Critical — $1.64B cash vs $19.5B debt |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $124M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 20%, ROA 2.2% |
Ownership (ARR)
| Insider Ownership | +0.19% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +54.01% |
| Shares Outstanding | 141.55M |
| Float | 141.25M |
| Short % of Float | +11.56% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
Leadership (ARR)
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is led by Scott Jeffrey Ulm, CEO and Vice Chairman, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
| CEO and Vice Chairman | Scott Jeffrey Ulm |
|---|---|
| CFO & Secretary | Gordon Mackay Harper |
Major Backers & Investors (ARR)
Notable institutional backers of ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. include Morgan Stanley, Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd., Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc., according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 1.95% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd. | 1.77% |
| Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 1.55% |
| Jupiter Asset Management Limited | 1.52% |
| Invesco | 1.42% |
| Fidelity | 0.99% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 14.11% |
| Vanguard Group | 8.97% |
| State Street | 3.35% |
| Geode Capital | 2.28% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC.
From ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-18)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We believe that we are organized in conformity with the requirements for qualification as a REIT under the Code and our manner of operations enables us to meet the requirements for taxation as a REIT for federal income tax purposes (See Real Estate Investment Trust Requirements section below).
- While we use strategies to economically hedge some of our interest rate risk, we do not hedge all of our exposure to changes in interest rates and prepayment rates, as there are practical limitations on our ability to insulate our securities portfolio from all potential negative consequences associated with changes in short-term interest rates in a manner that will allow us to seek attractive net spreads on our securities portfolio.
Partnerships
- Currently, the monthly management fee is 1/12th of the sum of (a) 1.5% of gross equity raised up to $1.0 billion plus (b) 0.75% of gross equity raised in excess of $1.0 billion.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We invest in MBS guaranteed by GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are under conservatorship by the FHFA. Changes to the conservatorship or to the laws and regulations affecting the support GSEs receive may adversely affect the availability, financing, pricing, market value and liquidity of our assets.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | USD 10.58 | ▲ 3.73% |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | USD 11.63 | ▲ 1.84% |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | USD 9.32 | ▲ 4.02% |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | USD 11.05 | ▼ 0% |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | USD 4.9 | ▲ 0.62% |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real Estate F | USD 6.3 | ▼ 0.63% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 11:19 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt