Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Price & Analysis
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) closed at USD 91.16 on Thursday, October 29, 2026, up 11.24% on the day. The US market is currently closed (after-hours); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 81.95; the Oct 29, 2026 session ranged USD 85.25–94.24 on volume of 2,162,192 shares. Market capitalization is $6.35B, with a 52-week range of USD 73.09–118.35 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/CHDN.md
Latest Earnings Results (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reported Q3 2026 results on Oct 28, 2026, 4:14:39 PM ET: GAAP EPS $1.15 vs. estimate $1.10 (beat), revenue $696.00M vs. estimate $695.17M (beat). Source: SEC 8-K filing. Nexqual published it 38 seconds after release. Read the SEC filing.
| Fiscal period | EPS (reported) | Revenue | Released | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.15 (GAAP diluted) | $696.0M | Oct 28, 2026, 4:14:39 PM ET · on Nexqual +38 seconds | SEC 8-K filing |
Reported actuals captured by Nexqual from SEC 8-K filings and company press releases; each figure confirmed by two independent extraction methods.
Key facts (CHDN)
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $3.00B, net income $455M (15.1% margin), free cash flow $682M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 14.0x (avg 23.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.9x, net debt $4.55B.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 125.75 (range 100–153).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -8.8% vs S&P 500 +14.4%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 1.03, revenue estimate $678M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (CHDN)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.60B | $1.81B | $2.46B | $2.73B | $2.93B | $3.00B |
| Operating income | $284M | $322M | $564M | $709M | $684M | $767M |
| Net income | $249M | $439M | $417M | $427M | $383M | $455M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.18 | $5.71 | $5.49 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $420M | $461M | $528M | $688M | $700M | $682M |
| Operating margin | 17.8% | 17.8% | 22.9% | 25.9% | 23.4% | 25.5% |
| Net margin | 15.6% | 24.3% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 15.1% |
| Revenue growth | +51.5% | +13.3% | +36.0% | +11.1% | +7.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $291M | $130M | $145M | $176M | $201M | — |
| Total debt | $1.97B | $4.61B | $4.87B | $4.94B | $5.16B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026) (CHDN)
P/E 14.0x · P/S 2.1x · EV/EBITDA 10.9x · EV/Sales 3.6x · P/FCF 9.3x · P/B 4.6x · FCF yield 10.73% · Earnings yield 7.16% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.50% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.19% · Net debt $4.55B · EV $10.9B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 21.3x, Dec 2024 23.3x, Dec 2023 24.6x.
Analysts (CHDN)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 125.75 (low 100, high 153).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $139 → $132 |
| 2026-10-21 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $124 → $115 |
| 2026-10-20 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $123 → $118 |
| 2026-10-20 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $145 → $140 |
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $117 → $120 |
| 2026-10-13 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $137 → $131 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wolfe Research | Initiated | Outperform | $119 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mizuho | Target raised | Outperform | $155 → $157 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $120 → $117 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $149 → $137 |
| 2026-07-31 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $121 → $124 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $132 → $120 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (CHDN)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | |
|---|---|
| Total return | -8.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% |
| Per year | -8.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.0% |
| Max drawdown | -37.1% (Dec 2025→Oct 2026) |
CHDN earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 | $1.23 | $1.10 | Beat +11.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $3.45 | $3.43 | Beat +0.6% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $1.21 | $1.00 | Beat +21.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.97 | $1.03 | Miss −5.8% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).
CHDN recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure “(d) Election of Director On October 27, 2026, upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Governance Committee of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company"), the Board appointed Michael Tucker as a Class II Director of the Company, effective immediately, to fill a vacancy created by an increase in the size of the Board. Mr. Tucker's term will expire with the other Class II Directors at the 2028 Annual Meeting of Shareholders of the Company. At the time of filing this…” |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Sep 30, 2026 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 8-K | Quarterly results |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation; Regulation FD disclosure “On September 28, 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") announced that CDI successfully closed an amendment of its senior secured credit agreement dated as of December 27, 2017 (as amended from time to time, the "Existing Credit Agreement") to extend the maturity date of CDI's revolving credit facility (the "Revolver") and term loan A facility (the "Term Loan A") from 2029 to 2031 and to make certain other changes to its Existing Credit Agreement. CDI also closed its previously announced…” |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Schedule 13G | Vanguard Capital Management: 5.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | Quarterly results |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | Other material event “Strategic Alternatives Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company") has completed a comprehensive review of the Company's operational portfolio and long-term capital allocation priorities. The Company is exploring various options to sell the following wholly owned regional gaming properties: Calder Casino in Florida, Terre Haute Casino Resort in Indiana, Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Iowa, Oxford Casino Hotel in Maine, Ocean Downs Casino and Racetrack in Maryland, Harlow's Casino Resort and Spa and Riverwalk Casino…” |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed; each form links to the filing. Insider Form 4 filings are listed in the insider sections.
CHDN analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $1.03 | $1.06 | -2.7% | $678.4M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends Mar 2027) | $1.21 | $1.25 | -3.2% | $669.7M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $6.79 | $6.92 | -1.9% | $3.02B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $7.31 | $7.28 | +0.4% | $3.11B | 9 |
Key Statistics (as of October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC)
| Price | USD 91.16 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 11.24% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 81.95 |
| Open | USD 86.63 |
| Day Range | USD 85.25 – 94.24 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 73.09 – 118.35 |
| Volume | 2,162,192 shares |
| Market Cap | $6.35B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (CHDN)
Nexqual's technical model rates CHDN "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 2 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 68.33 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 82.88) |
| MACD | 1.19 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (CHDN)
Wall Street analysts rate CHDN "Buy" based on 12 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 125.75 (range USD 100–153), per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 12 |
| Mean Target | USD 125.75 |
| High Target | USD 153 |
| Low Target | USD 100 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 12 / 0 / 0 |
Earnings (CHDN)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-28 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 1.03 |
| Revenue Estimate | $678.39M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | USD 1.23 vs est 1.1 ▲ beat |
| 2026-06-30 | USD 3.45 vs est 3.43 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 1.21 vs est 1 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.97 vs est 1.03 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (CHDN)
| Total Revenue | $2.99B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +4.90% |
| Gross Margin | +34.18% |
| Operating Margin | +36.53% |
| Profit Margin | +13.80% |
| ROE | +33.85% |
| Debt / Equity | 3.49 |
| Current Ratio | 0.36 |
| Total Cash | $196.00M |
| Total Debt | $4.86B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Sep 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $681.60M (22.7% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
Financial Health Score (CHDN)
Nexqual rates Churchill Downs Incorporated's overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +7% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 34%, operating 26% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Critical — $167M cash and investments vs $4.72B debt (Sep 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Strong — FCF $682M (last 4 quarters to Sep 2026, SEC), 23% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 33%, ROA 6.1% (last 4 quarters, SEC) |
Ownership (CHDN)
| Insider Ownership | +5.91% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +89.65% |
| Shares Outstanding | 69.70M |
| Float | 65.78M |
| Short % of Float | +8.37% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
Leadership (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated is led by William C. Carstanjen, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
| CEO & Director | William C. Carstanjen |
|---|---|
| President & COO | William E. Mudd |
| Executive VP & CFO | Marcia Ann Dall |
| Senior VP & CTO | Nate Simon |
| Vice President of Investor Relations | Sam Ullrich |
Major Backers & Investors (CHDN)
Notable institutional backers of Churchill Downs Incorporated include FMR, LLC, LONDON CO OF VIRGINIA, Touchstone Fd.s Group TRT-Touchstone Fd.s Group TRT-Touchstone Mid Cap, according to Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 4.23% |
| LONDON CO OF VIRGINIA | 3.54% |
| Touchstone Fd.s Group TRT-Touchstone Fd.s Group TRT-Touchstone Mid Cap | 2.48% |
| Citadel | 2.46% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | 2.07% |
| John Hancock Funds III-Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund | 1.89% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 8.9% |
| Vanguard Group | 8.89% |
| State Street | 2.94% |
| Geode Capital | 1.93% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC.
From Churchill Downs Incorporated's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-25)
Partnerships
- Under the IHA, racetracks and ADWs can accept interstate off-track wagers if the racetracks and ADWs have approvals from (1) the host horse racetrack including a written agreement with the horsemen's group, if applicable, (2) the host racing commission, and (3) the off-track racing commission.
- The Company is investing up to $30 million to renovate the existing Finish Line Suites and The Mansion to enhance the existing areas and provide improved amenities for the 152nd Kentucky Derby in May 2026.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Regulatory authorities also have input into important aspects of our operations, including hours of operation and location or relocation of a facility. Regulators may also levy substantial fines against or seize our assets or the assets of our subsidiaries or the people involved in violating pari-mutuel laws or regulations.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
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Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 29, 2026 at 20:31 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt