Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Stock Price & Analysis
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) closed at USD 98.21 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 0.61% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 98.81; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 96.97–99.79 on volume of 2,275,813 shares. Market capitalization is $10.31B, with a 52-week range of USD 42.05–108 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/ESTC.md
Key facts (ESTC)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 31, 2026): revenue $1.80B, net income $376M (20.8% margin), free cash flow $349M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 27.4x (avg 92.8x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), net cash $890M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 21 Form 4 filings, $430M; 21 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($430M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 11 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale) (30 analysts), mean target USD 111.74 (range 75–130).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +12.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -41.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-19, EPS estimate USD 0.81, revenue estimate $487M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (ESTC)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $862M | $1.07B | $1.27B | $1.48B | $1.74B | $1.80B |
| Gross profit | $630M | $772M | $937M | $1.10B | $1.32B | — |
| Operating income | -$174M | -$219M | -$130M | -$54.9M | -$33.5M | -$47.6M |
| Net income | -$204M | -$236M | $61.7M | -$108M | $368M | $376M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.20 | -$2.47 | $0.59 | -$1.04 | $3.43 | — |
| Free cash flow | $3.2M | $33.0M | $145M | $262M | $322M | $349M |
| Gross margin | 73.1% | 72.3% | 74.0% | 74.4% | 76.1% | — |
| Operating margin | -20.1% | -20.5% | -10.3% | -3.7% | -1.9% | -2.6% |
| Net margin | -23.6% | -22.1% | 4.9% | -7.3% | 21.1% | 20.8% |
| Revenue growth | +41.7% | +24.0% | +18.6% | +17.0% | +17.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $861M | $644M | $1.08B | $1.40B | $1.37B | — |
| Total debt | $567M | $568M | $569M | $570M | $571M | — |
Fiscal years end Apr. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 31, 2026) (ESTC)
P/E 27.4x · P/S 5.7x · EV/Sales 5.2x · P/FCF 29.5x · P/B 8.0x · FCF yield 3.39% · Earnings yield 3.64% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.69% · Net cash $890M · EV $9.42B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Apr 2026 13.5x, Apr 2024 172.2x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (ESTC)
0 of 21 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Schuurman Steven | Director | 2,000,000 | $188M | 44.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-10-05 | Schuurman Steven | Director | 1,500,000 | $135M | 25% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Dodds Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | 10,000 | $926K | 3.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-14 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 84,207 | $7.1M | 1.5% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-09…2026-09-10 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 161,787 | $14.0M | 2.8% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | Chief Executive Officer | 29,227 | $2.6M | 4.6% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-09 | Bone Jane E | GVP & CAO | 1,542 | $135K | 3.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-09 | Herzog Carolyn | Chief Legal Officer | 5,485 | $481K | 4.6% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | 9,673 | $849K | 3.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-09 | Welihinda Navam | Chief Financial Officer | 8,961 | $787K | 4.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-03…2026-09-04 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 284,285 | $26.6M | 4.7% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-31…2026-09-02 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 476,298 | $44.5M | 7.4% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-01 | Bone Jane E | GVP & CAO | 4,176 | $390K | 7.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-01 | Herzog Carolyn | Chief Legal Officer | 10,000 | $937K | 7.8% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | Chief Executive Officer | 40,373 | $2.4M | 6% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Welihinda Navam | Chief Financial Officer | 12,961 | $786K | 5.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-09 | Exner Ken | Chief Product Officer | 18,449 | $1.1M | 4.9% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Herzog Carolyn | Chief Legal Officer | 9,485 | $575K | 6.9% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | 18,439 | $1.1M | 5.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-09 | Bone Jane E | GVP & CAO | 1,104 | $67K | 2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (ESTC)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale), 30 analysts; mean target USD 111.74 (low 75, high 130).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Wedbush | Reiterated | Outperform | $125 |
| 2026-10-09 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $107 → $120 |
| 2026-09-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated | Neutral | $100 |
| 2026-08-28 | Scotiabank | Target raised | Sector Perform | $58 → $84 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $80 → $100 |
| 2026-08-28 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $85 → $105 |
| 2026-08-28 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $70 → $95 |
| 2026-08-28 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $104 → $128 |
| 2026-08-28 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $90 → $107 |
| 2026-08-28 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $94 → $118 |
| 2026-08-28 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $85 → $130 |
| 2026-08-28 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $100 → $118 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (ESTC)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +12.7% | -41.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +12.7% | -10.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 57.7% | 58.6% |
| Max drawdown | -54.2% (Nov 2025→Apr 2026) | -76.3% (Nov 2021→Apr 2026) |
ESTC revenue by product line (quarter ended Jul 31, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total subscription | $448.7M | 93.9% | +15.5% |
| — SaaS (part of Total subscription) | $235.2M | 49.2% | +20.1% |
| — Saa S Self Managed - Annual (part of Total subscription) | $185.0M | 38.7% | +26.8% |
| — Services (part of Total subscription) | $29.4M | 6.1% | +10.0% |
| Self-managed subscription | $213.5M | 44.7% | +10.7% |
| Saa S Self Managed - Monthly | $50.2M | 10.5% | +0.7% |
| Total revenue | $478.1M | 100% | — |
ESTC revenue by region (quarter ended Jul 31, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $259.0M | 54.2% | +12.5% |
| Non-US | $219.1M | 45.8% | +18.4% |
| Total revenue | $478.1M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
ESTC suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Elasticsearch | “The Elasticsearch Platform ("our platform") combines the precision of search with the intelligence of AI to help our customers and community solve real-time business problems, unlock potential value, and achieve better outcomes.” |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | “•Certain cloud hosting providers and MSPs, including AWS, which offer products or services based on a forked version of our platform.” |
| Competitor | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | “•For Search & AI: providers of traditional search offerings, such as Algolia, Apache Solr (open source offering), and Coveo; native vector databases, such as Pinecone, Qdrant, and Weaviate; database platforms with integrated vector search, such as MongoDB Atlas; and search tools, such as Google Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform (formerly Vertex AI) and Microsoft Azure AI Search.” |
| Competitor | Microsoft (MSFT) | “•For Search & AI: providers of traditional search offerings, such as Algolia, Apache Solr (open source offering), and Coveo; native vector databases, such as Pinecone, Qdrant, and Weaviate; database platforms with integrated vector search, such as MongoDB Atlas; and search tools, such as Google Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform (formerly Vertex AI) and Microsoft Azure AI Search.” |
| Competitor | Cisco (CSCO) | “•For Elastic Observability: software vendors with specific observability solutions, such as AppDynamics and Splunk (each owned by Cisco Systems), Datadog, Dynatrace, and New Relic.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Jun 8, 2026.
ESTC customer concentration
In the period ended Jul 31, 2026, a single direct customer accounted for 10% of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Aug 28, 2026. The company does not name it.
ESTC company outlook (results filed Aug 27, 2026)
- “The guidance assumes, among others, the following exchange rates: 1 Euro = 1.166 US Dollars; and 1 Great British Pound = 1.361 US Dollars.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
ESTC analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Oct 2026) | $0.81 | $0.80 | +1.5% | $486.7M | 28 |
| Next quarter (ends Jan 2027) | $0.95 | $0.96 | -1.1% | $517.8M | 27 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Apr 2027) | $3.36 | $3.24 | +3.6% | $2.01B | 29 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Apr 2028) | $3.96 | $3.88 | +2.1% | $2.30B | 29 |
ESTC options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±16.3% (±$16.05) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 19, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±15.7% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 71.8% | ±16.3% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 66.4% | ±21.1% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 59.4% | ±23.0% |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 119 | 56.1% | ±25.7% |
| May 21, 2027 | 210 | 56.9% | ±34.3% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 237 | 58.2% | ±37.3% |
30-day implied volatility 72% vs 39.9% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.01. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC)
| Price | USD 98.21 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 0.61% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 98.81 |
| Open | USD 98.59 |
| Day Range | USD 96.97 – 99.79 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 42.05 – 108 |
| Volume | 2,275,813 shares |
| Market Cap | $10.31B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (ESTC)
Nexqual's technical model rates ESTC "STRONG BUY" based on 5 bullish and 0 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
| Overall Signal | STRONG BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 57.47 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 90.12) |
| MACD | 2.42 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (ESTC)
Wall Street analysts rate ESTC "Buy" based on 30 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 111.74 (range USD 75–130), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 30 |
| Mean Target | USD 111.74 |
| High Target | USD 130 |
| Low Target | USD 75 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 19 / 11 / 0 |
Earnings (ESTC)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-19 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.81 |
| Revenue Estimate | $486.67M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | USD 0.7 vs est 0.58 ▲ beat |
| 2026-04-30 | USD 0.61 vs est 0.56 ▲ beat |
| 2026-01-31 | USD 0.73 vs est 0.65 ▲ beat |
| 2025-10-31 | USD 0.64 vs est 0.58 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (ESTC)
| Total Revenue | $1.80B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +15.10% |
| Gross Margin | +75.59% |
| Operating Margin | -0.61% |
| Profit Margin | +20.84% |
| ROE | +33.12% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.46 |
| Current Ratio | 1.81 |
| Total Cash | $1.46B |
| Total Debt | $595.77M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jul 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $349.04M (19.4% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
Financial Health Score (ESTC)
Nexqual rates Elastic N.V.'s overall financial health "Strong" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +17% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 76%, operating -1% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Solid — $1.46B cash and investments vs $571M debt (Jul 2026, SEC), net cash |
| Cash Flow | Strong — FCF $349M (last 4 quarters to Jul 2026, SEC), 19% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 33%, ROA -0.6% |
Ownership (ESTC)
| Insider Ownership | +11.74% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +87.89% |
| Shares Outstanding | 104.99M |
| Float | 90.19M |
| Short % of Float | +5.14% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
Leadership (ESTC)
Elastic N.V. is led by Ashutosh Kulkarni, CEO & Executive Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
| CEO & Executive Director | Ashutosh Kulkarni |
|---|---|
| Co-Founder, CTO & Executive Director | Shay Banon |
| Chief Financial Officer | Navam Welihinda |
| Chief Revenue Officer | Mark Dodds |
| Group Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer | Jane Bone |
Major Backers & Investors (ESTC)
Notable institutional backers of Elastic N.V. include AQR Capital Management, LLC, Pictet Asset Management Holding SA, Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc., according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 5.79% |
| Pictet Asset Management Holding SA | 5.55% |
| Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 4.56% |
| FIL LTD | 3.21% |
| First Trust Advisors LP | 2.88% |
| First TRT Exch-Trd Fd. II-First TRT NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF | 2.53% |
| Alyeska Investment Group, L.p. | 2.35% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 9.45% |
| BlackRock | 6.07% |
| Geode Capital | 1.57% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC.
From Elastic N.V.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-06-08)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We make our platform available as a service across major cloud providers (consisting of Amazon Web Services ("AWS"), Google Cloud Platform ("GCP"), and Microsoft Azure ("Azure")) in more than 55 public cloud regions globally.
- Our business model is based primarily on a combination of paid service offerings (Elastic Cloud Hosted and Elastic Cloud Serverless) and free and paid proprietary self-managed software (Elastic Self-Managed).
- Elastic Cloud, our family of cloud-based offerings (including both Elastic Cloud Hosted and Elastic Cloud Serverless) is hosted on major public cloud providers.
- We offer varied deployment options, including Elastic Self-Managed, Elastic Cloud Hosted, and Elastic Cloud Serverless, to cater to a wide range of customer use cases.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Any actual or perceived failure by us to comply with government or other obligations related to privacy, data protection, and information security could adversely affect our business.
- The regulatory frameworks for these issues worldwide are rapidly evolving and are likely to remain uncertain for the foreseeable future. Government bodies or agencies in the past have adopted or amended, and in the future may adopt or amend, laws and regulations affecting data protection, data privacy, AI, or information security or regulating the use of the Internet as a commercial medium.
- We may also be or become subject to new laws and regulations that regulate non-personal information.
- Data protection authorities and other regulatory bodies are increasingly focused on the use of online tracking tools and have issued or plan to issue rulings which may affect our marketing practices.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
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Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:13 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt