Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Price & Analysis
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) closed at USD 7.36 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 1.38% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 7.26; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 7.13–7.4 on volume of 1,650,684 shares. Market capitalization is $1.43B, with a 52-week range of USD 6.66–10.85 (NGM). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/HLMN.md
Key facts (HLMN)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $1.60B, net income $41.2M (2.6% margin), free cash flow $61.1M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 34.8x (avg 77.6x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.2x, net debt $642M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $249K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($249K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $249K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 11.75 (range 9–14).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -22.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -36.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD 0.2, revenue estimate $460M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (HLMN)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.43B | $1.49B | $1.48B | $1.47B | $1.55B | $1.60B |
| Operating income | $10.3M | $39.9M | $60.9M | $88.8M | $114M | $111M |
| Net income | -$38.3M | -$16.4M | -$9.6M | $17.3M | $40.3M | $41.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.28 | -$0.08 | -$0.05 | $0.09 | $0.20 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$162M | $49.4M | $172M | $98.1M | $35.1M | $61.1M |
| Operating margin | 0.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Net margin | -2.7% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Revenue growth | — | +4.2% | -0.7% | -0.3% | +5.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $14.6M | $31.1M | $38.6M | $44.5M | $27.3M | — |
| Total debt | $907M | $885M | $732M | $692M | $668M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026) (HLMN)
P/E 34.8x · P/S 0.9x · EV/EBITDA 9.2x · EV/Sales 1.3x · P/FCF 23.4x · P/B 1.2x · FCF yield 4.27% · Earnings yield 2.88% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.50% · Net debt $642M · EV $2.07B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 42.9x, Dec 2024 112.3x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (HLMN)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kitzberger Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | 13,750 | $100K | 18.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-19 | Parker Aaron Jerrod | Chief People Offic. | 17,381 | $149K | 24.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (HLMN)
1 purchase, $249K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Kraft Robert O. | CFO and Treasurer | 35,500 | $249K | 7 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
Analysts (HLMN)
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 11.75 (low 9, high 14).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Canaccord Genuity | Target lowered | Buy | $14 → $13 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $10 → $11 |
| 2026-07-01 | Canaccord Genuity | Target lowered | Buy | $14 → $13 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (HLMN)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -22.1% | -36.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -22.2% | -8.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 38.7% | 37.6% |
| Max drawdown | -35.4% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -44.4% (Mar 2022→Oct 2023) |
HLMN revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 27, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardware and Protective Solutions | $336.1M | 76.0% | +9.9% |
| Robotics and Digital Solutions | $61.6M | 13.9% | +11.0% |
| Canada | $44.6M | 10.1% | +7.8% |
| Total revenue | $442.3M | 100% | — |
HLMN revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 27, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastening and Hardware | $282.6M | 63.9% | +15.6% |
| Personal Protection Solutions | $53.5M | 12.1% | -12.9% |
| Total revenue | $442.3M | 100% | — |
HLMN revenue by region (quarter ended Jun 27, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $393.6M | 89.0% | +9.9% |
| Canada | $44.6M | 10.1% | +7.8% |
| Mexico | $4.0M | 0.9% | +23.6% |
| Total revenue | $442.3M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
HLMN suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Home Depot (HD) | “For the year ended December 27, 2025, Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues and Lowe's was the second largest customer at approximately $324.4 million or 20.9% of our total revenues.” |
| Customer | Lowe's (LOW) | “For the year ended December 27, 2025, Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues and Lowe's was the second largest customer at approximately $324.4 million or 20.9% of our total revenues.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026.
HLMN customer concentration
In the period ended Dec 27, 2025, 2 direct customers each accounted for at least 10% (22.5%, 20.9%) of revenue, per the company's 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026. The company does not name them.
HLMN company outlook (results filed Aug 4, 2026)
- “EBITDA outlook CINCINNATI, August 3, 2026 -- Hillman Solutions Corp.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
HLMN analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.20 | $0.20 | +1.7% | $460.1M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.14 | $0.14 | -4.3% | $411.1M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.58 | $0.58 | +0.2% | $1.68B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.68 | $0.70 | -2.8% | $1.80B | 7 |
HLMN options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±18.3% (±$1.35) by Jan 15, 2027, which includes earnings on Nov 2, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±8.1% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 47.0% | ±18.3% |
30-day implied volatility 68% vs 23.7% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) —. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC)
| Price | USD 7.36 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 1.38% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 7.26 |
| Open | USD 7.27 |
| Day Range | USD 7.13 – 7.4 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 6.66 – 10.85 |
| Volume | 1,650,684 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.43B |
| Exchange | NGM |
Technical Analysis (HLMN)
Nexqual's technical model rates HLMN "SELL" based on 2 bullish and 4 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 53.71 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 7.47) |
| MACD | -0.03 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (HLMN)
Wall Street analysts rate HLMN "Buy" based on 8 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 11.75 (range USD 9–14), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 8 |
| Mean Target | USD 11.75 |
| High Target | USD 14 |
| Low Target | USD 9 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 6 / 2 / 0 |
Earnings (HLMN)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-02 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.2 |
| Revenue Estimate | $460.15M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.17 vs est 0.17 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.07 vs est 0.08 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.1 vs est 0.1 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.22 vs est 0.2 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (HLMN)
| Total Revenue | $1.60B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +9.80% |
| Gross Margin | +48.05% |
| Operating Margin | +8.32% |
| Profit Margin | +2.57% |
| ROE | +3.39% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.65 |
| Current Ratio | 2.71 |
| Total Cash | $36.11M |
| Total Debt | $801.02M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $61.08M (3.8% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Financial Health Score (HLMN)
Nexqual rates Hillman Solutions Corp.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +5% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 48%, operating 8% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $36M cash and investments vs $678M debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Mixed — FCF $61M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), slim 3.8% margin |
| Efficiency | Weak — ROE 3%, ROA 2.9% |
Ownership (HLMN)
| Insider Ownership | +1.04% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +103.89% |
| Shares Outstanding | 194.54M |
| Float | 192.28M |
| Short % of Float | +2.79% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Leadership (HLMN)
Hillman Solutions Corp. is led by Jon Michael Adinolfi, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Jon Michael Adinolfi |
|---|---|
| Executive Chairman | Douglas J. Cahill |
| CFO & Treasurer | Robert O. Kraft |
| Executive Vice President of Sales | Brett A. Hillman |
| Executive Vice President of Global Supply Chain | Robert Davis Dale |
Major Backers & Investors (HLMN)
Notable institutional backers of Hillman Solutions Corp. include FMR, LLC, Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC, Bank of Montreal /CAN/, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 9.1% |
| Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC | 5.88% |
| Bank of Montreal /CAN/ | 5.29% |
| American Century Companies Inc | 4.42% |
| Reinhart Partners, LLC | 4.4% |
| Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | 4.1% |
| Fidelity | 3.98% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 9.08% |
| BlackRock | 7.62% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 5.24% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
From Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-17)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our Precision Laser Key System™ uses a digital optical camera, lasers, and proprietary software to scan a customer's key.
- Robotics and Digital Solutions generated approximately $220.2 million, $216.7 million, and $229.5 million of revenues in the years ended December 27, 2025, December 28, 2024, and December 30, 2023, respectively.
- Our Canada segment generated approximately $138.1 million, $147.9 million and $156.5 million of revenues in the years ended December 27, 2025, December 28, 2024, and December 30, 2023, respectively.
- We sell our products to a large volume of customers, the top two of which accounted for approximately $674.3 million, or approximately 43% of our total revenues in 2025.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMT | Kennametal Inc. | USD 29.59 | ▼ 4.89% |
| TKR | Timken Company (The) | USD 108.4 | ▼ 5.71% |
| TTC | Toro Company (The) | USD 105.32 | ▲ 1.91% |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | USD 256.98 | ▼ 2.34% |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | USD 98.97 | ▲ 3.7% |
| RBC | RBC Bearings Incorporated | USD 478.03 | ▼ 5.24% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt