Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Price & Analysis
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) closed at USD 29.11 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 6.47% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 27.34; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 27.26–29.27 on volume of 2,670,881 shares. Market capitalization is $3.03B, with a 52-week range of USD 17.09–29.27 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/HOG.md
Key facts (HOG)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.24B, net income $203M (4.8% margin), free cash flow -$133M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.0x (avg 7.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 7.1x, net cash $266M.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold HOG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 7 Form 4 filings, $273K; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $1.4M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.73 on a 1–5 scale) (15 analysts), mean target USD 27.9 (range 17–33).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +8.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -11.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.47, revenue estimate $1.07B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (HOG)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.34B | $5.76B | $5.84B | $5.19B | $4.47B | $4.24B |
| Gross profit | $2.09B | $2.35B | $2.51B | $2.18B | $1.73B | — |
| Operating income | $823M | $909M | $779M | $417M | $387M | $213M |
| Net income | $650M | $741M | $707M | $455M | $339M | $203M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.19 | $4.96 | $4.87 | $3.44 | $2.78 | — |
| Free cash flow | $856M | $397M | $547M | $867M | $415M | -$133M |
| Gross margin | 39.2% | 40.9% | 43.1% | 42.0% | 38.7% | — |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.8% |
| Revenue growth | +31.6% | +7.8% | +1.4% | -11.1% | -13.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.87B | $1.43B | $1.53B | $1.59B | $3.09B | — |
| Total debt | $6.14B | $6.14B | $6.25B | $6.32B | $2.47B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (HOG)
P/E 15.0x · P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 7.1x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/B 1.0x · FCF yield -4.39% · Earnings yield 6.69% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.73% · Buyback yield (TTM) 11.90% · Net cash $266M · EV $2.76B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 7.3x, Dec 2024 8.8x, Dec 2023 7.6x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (HOG)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold HOG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Avenue Management | 5.79% | $36.2M | Added +1.2% | |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $342K | Unchanged |
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (HOG)
7 of 7 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,559 | $38K | 3.7% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $43K | 3.6% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $39K | 3.5% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $38K | 3.4% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $37K | 3.3% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-19 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $38K | 3.2% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Krause Paul J | Chief Legal Officer | 1,564 | $41K | 4.9% | Yes (adopted November 14, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (HOG)
3 purchases, $1.4M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Littleton Gayle | CLO, CCO, CAO & Corp Sec | 7,500 | $198K | 26.38 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-10 | Starrs Artie | President & CEO | 10,000 | $259K | 25.89 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-31 | Nova Daniel J | Director | 40,000 | $983K | 24.57 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Analysts (HOG)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.73 on a 1–5 scale), 15 analysts; mean target USD 27.9 (low 17, high 33).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $31 → $33 |
| 2026-09-08 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $27 → $31 |
| 2026-09-02 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $26 → $28 |
| 2026-08-17 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $30 → $33 |
| 2026-07-28 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Underweight | $15 → $17 |
| 2026-07-24 | Baird | Target raised | Neutral | $28 → $30 |
| 2026-07-20 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | |
| 2026-07-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $26 → $27 |
| 2026-07-06 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $25 → $30 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (HOG)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +8.9% | -11.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +8.9% | -2.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 38.8% | 36.7% |
| Max drawdown | -37.9% (Oct 2025→Mar 2026) | -63.0% (Jan 2023→Mar 2026) |
Companies that name HOG in their SEC reports
| Relationship to HOG | Company | Filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) | 10-K Feb 20, 2026 | “Through our partnership with Harley-Davidson, we maintain an IT incident response plan that is designed to protect against, identify, evaluate, respond to, and recover from an incident.” |
HOG analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.47 | $0.50 | -5.3% | $1.07B | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $-0.79 | $-0.95 | -16.9% | $541.7M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.67 | $0.39 | +69.9% | $3.79B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $1.97 | $1.89 | +4.2% | $3.93B | 14 |
HOG options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±8.0% (±$2.33) by Oct 30, 2026, which includes earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | 7 | 66.9% | ±8.0% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 14 | 57.1% | ±9.3% |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 21 | 51.3% | ±10.0% |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 50.6% | ±11.3% |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 35 | 48.0% | ±11.9% |
| Dec 4, 2026 | 42 | 48.4% | ±13.2% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 45.8% | ±14.4% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 42.9% | ±16.3% |
30-day implied volatility 49.3% vs 37.2% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.3. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC)
| Price | USD 29.11 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 6.47% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 27.34 |
| Open | USD 27.37 |
| Day Range | USD 27.26 – 29.27 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 17.09 – 29.27 |
| Volume | 2,670,881 shares |
| Market Cap | $3.03B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (HOG)
Nexqual's technical model rates HOG "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 2 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 64.43 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 26.95) |
| MACD | 0.38 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (HOG)
Wall Street analysts rate HOG "Hold" based on 15 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 27.9 (range USD 17–33), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 15 |
| Mean Target | USD 27.9 |
| High Target | USD 33 |
| Low Target | USD 17 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 6 / 7 / 2 |
Earnings (HOG)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-29 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.48 |
| Revenue Estimate | $1.07B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.75 vs est 0.64 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.22 vs est 0.23 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD -2.44 vs est -1.06 ▼ miss |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 3.1 vs est 1.64 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (HOG)
| Total Revenue | $4.24B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -5.90% |
| Gross Margin | +27.99% |
| Operating Margin | +5.63% |
| Profit Margin | +4.78% |
| ROE | +6.09% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.74 |
| Current Ratio | 1.9 |
| Total Cash | $1.28B |
| Total Debt | $2.31B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | -$133.07M (-3.1% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
Financial Health Score (HOG)
Nexqual rates Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
| Growth | Critical — Revenue -13% YoY (annual), sharp decline |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 28%, operating 6% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Solid — $1.90B cash and investments vs $1.63B debt (Jun 2026, SEC), net cash |
| Cash Flow | Weak — FCF negative: -$133M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), burning cash |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE 6%, ROA 1.6% |
Ownership (HOG)
| Insider Ownership | +1.18% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +112.26% |
| Shares Outstanding | 104.07M |
| Float | 102.94M |
| Short % of Float | +27.54% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
Leadership (HOG)
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is led by Arthur Francis Starrs, CEO, President & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
| CEO, President & Director | Arthur Francis Starrs |
|---|---|
| CFO & Chief Commercial Officer | Jonathan R. Root |
| Chief Marketing & Technology Officer | Matt Ryan |
| Chief Operating Officer | Bryan Niketh |
| Director of Investor Relations | Shawn Michael Collins |
Major Backers & Investors (HOG)
Notable institutional backers of Harley-Davidson, Inc. include Donald Smith & Co., Inc., American Century Companies Inc, LSV Asset Management, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Donald Smith & Co., Inc. | 8.92% |
| American Century Companies Inc | 5.14% |
| LSV Asset Management | 4.88% |
| Fifthdelta Ltd | 4.2% |
| DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio | 1.28% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 9.96% |
| BlackRock | 9.8% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 5.73% |
| State Street | 4.07% |
| Geode Capital | 2.88% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| PII | Polaris Inc. | USD 56.69 | ▲ 4.42% |
| THO | Thor Industries, Inc. | USD 70.71 | ▲ 6.44% |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | USD 70.27 | ▲ 4.41% |
| DOO | BRP Inc. | USD 58.54 | ▲ 4.78% |
| LCII | LCI Industries | USD 86.6 | ▲ 4.15% |
| BC | Brunswick Corporation | USD 68.29 | ▲ 4.29% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:26 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt