Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Stock Price & Analysis
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) closed at USD 10.47 on Thursday, October 29, 2026, up 1.45% on the day. The US market is currently closed (after-hours); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 10.32; the Oct 29, 2026 session ranged USD 10.19–10.62 on volume of 2,788,557 shares. Market capitalization is $1.73B, with a 52-week range of USD 6.2–13.39 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/NVAX.md
Key facts (NVAX)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $414M, net income -$248M (-59.9% margin), free cash flow -$42.2M (SEC filings).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 14.44 (range 7–25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +24.2% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -93.0% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.35, revenue estimate $50.4M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (NVAX)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.15B | $1.98B | $984M | $682M | $1.12B | $414M |
| Gross profit | $1.15B | $1.08B | $640M | $479M | $1.05B | — |
| Operating income | -$1.69B | -$645M | -$567M | -$249M | $453M | -$234M |
| Net income | -$1.74B | -$658M | -$545M | -$187M | $440M | -$248M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$23.44 | -$8.42 | -$5.41 | -$1.23 | $2.58 | — |
| Free cash flow | $265M | -$505M | -$768M | -$100M | -$250M | -$42.2M |
| Gross margin | 100.0% | 54.5% | 65.1% | 70.3% | 93.5% | — |
| Operating margin | -147.1% | -32.5% | -57.6% | -36.5% | 40.3% | -56.6% |
| Net margin | -152.1% | -33.2% | -55.4% | -27.5% | 39.2% | -59.9% |
| Revenue growth | +141.0% | +72.9% | -50.4% | -30.7% | +64.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.52B | — | $569M | $923M | $735M | — |
| Total debt | $323M | $166M | $168M | $170M | $244M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (NVAX)
P/S 4.2x · EV/Sales 3.1x · FCF yield -2.44% · Earnings yield -14.34% · Net cash $428M · EV $1.30B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 2.6x.
Analysts (NVAX)
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 14.44 (low 7, high 25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Citigroup | Target raised | Sell | $7 → $8 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (NVAX)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +24.2% | -93.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +24.3% | -41.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 69.3% | 89.5% |
| Max drawdown | -34.6% (Feb 2026→Jul 2026) | -98.2% (Nov 2021→Jan 2024) |
NVAX major shareholder filing: Schedule 13D/A, Oct 16, 2026
Shah Capital Management, Shah Capital Fund LLC, Himanshu H. Shah filed a Schedule 13D/A with the SEC on Oct 16, 2026, reporting up to 6.46% of the class. A Schedule 13D is filed by an owner of more than 5% who may seek to influence the company. Item 4 (Purpose of Transaction), quoted from the filing:
Effective as of October 16, 2026, Shah Capital filed a Form ADV-W to voluntarily withdraw its registration as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Consequently, Shah Capital no longer operates as a registered investment adviser, and the Reporting Persons have updated their regulatory status accordingly. As a result, the Reporting Persons no longer hold the shares with a purpose of influencing control and intend to report on Schedule 13G going forward. The Reporting Persons completed a restructuring of their investment management activities in connection with the formation of a family office. Himanshu Shah Family Office LLC has been established to manage the investments and financial affairs of Himanshu Shah's family which was previously managed by Shah Capital Management. As part of this restructuring, Shah Capital Management voluntarily withdrew its registration as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on October 16, 2026. In connection with the foregoing, Shah Capital Fund LLC has been formed and has became part of this family office structure. The securities reported herein may be held directly or indirectly through Shah Capital Fund LLC. …
Source: SEC EDGAR, Schedule 13D/A filed Oct 16, 2026. Quoted word for word; Nexqual adds no interpretation.
NVAX earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.32 | −$0.38 | Beat +15.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.06 | −$0.24 | Beat +75.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.11 | −$0.49 | Beat +$0.60 | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$1.25 | −$1.17 | Miss −6.8% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).
NVAX recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure; Other material event “On October 28, 2026 Sanofi Pasteur Inc. ("Sanofi") dosed the fifth patient in its Phase 3 influenza-COVID-19 combination vaccine trial in the European Union, utilizing the Company's COVID-19 component. Dosing of the fifth patient has triggered a $125 million milestone payment from Sanofi under the Company's Collaboration and License Agreement with Sanofi. The Company anticipates receipt of payment by the first quarter of 2027. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K…” |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Schedule 13G | Shah Capital Management, Shah Capital Fund LLC: 6.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Schedule 13D/A | Shah Capital Management, Shah Capital Fund LLC: 6.5% of shares, 5%+ holder that may seek to influence the company (amended) “Effective as of October 16, 2026, Shah Capital filed a Form ADV-W to voluntarily withdraw its registration as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Consequently, Shah Capital no longer operates as a registered investment adviser, and the…” |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Schedule 13G | STATE STREET CORPORATION: 7.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | Quarterly results |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed; each form links to the filing. Insider Form 4 filings are listed in the insider sections.
NVAX revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Licensing Royalties & Other | $37.8M | 66.7% | -83.4% |
| Product | $18.9M | 33.3% | +75.8% |
| Supply Sales | $18.9M | 33.3% | +47.1% |
| Total revenue | $56.7M | 100% | — |
NVAX revenue by region (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $38.4M | 67.8% | -80.6% |
| Rest of the world | $17.1M | 30.2% | -54.2% |
| Europe | $1.1M | 2.0% | -69.2% |
| Total revenue | $56.7M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
NVAX suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Sanofi Pasteur | “•Our existing collaboration, funding and supply agreements, including the Sanofi CLA and our APAs, do not assure success of our vaccine candidates or vaccines or that we will be able to fully fund our vaccine candidates or vaccines or our operations, and if we are unable to satisfy the performance obligations under such agreements, we may not be eligible to receive milestone payments under such agreements, the agr…” |
| Partner | Pfizer (PFE) | “In January 2026, we entered into a non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer for use of Matrix-M adjuvant in up to two infectious disease areas.” |
| Partner | Pharmaceutical Company | “Beginning in 2025 and continuing during the term of the Sanofi CLA, we and Sanofi will commercialize the COVID-19 Vaccine worldwide in accordance with a commercialization plan agreed by the parties, under which we will continue to supply certain of our existing APA customers and strategic partners, including Takeda and SII.” |
| Competitor | Moderna (MRNA) | “Several competitors are working on developing seasonal influenza vaccines using different technologies than those in existing marketed vaccines, the most notable being mRNA from companies including Moderna and Pfizer.” |
| Competitor | Merck (MRK) | “Large and established companies, such as Merck & Co., Inc., GlaxoSmithKline plc, CSL Ltd., Sanofi Pasteur, SA, Pfizer Inc., AstraZeneca, and Moderna, among others, compete in the vaccine market.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026.
Companies that name NVAX in their SEC reports
| Relationship to NVAX | Company | Filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) | 10-K Mar 4, 2026 | “Companies such as Pfizer Inc./BioNTech SE, Moderna, Inc., CureVac N.V in partnership with GSK plc, Vivaldi Biosciences Inc., and Novavax, Inc. are also in the process of developing a combination vaccine that will protect against COVID-19 and the seasonal flu.” |
NVAX customer concentration
In the period ended Dec 31, 2025, 2 direct customers each accounted for at least 10% (51%, 36%) of revenue, per the company's 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026. The company does not name them.
NVAX company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “Raises Full Year 2026 Revenue Framework For 2026, Novavax raised its 2026 Revenue Framework and expects to achieve Adjusted Total Revenue4 to between $235 million and $275 million.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
NVAX analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $-0.35 | $-0.02 | −$0.32 | $50.4M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.07 | $-0.08 | +$0.15 | $123.2M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $-0.50 | $-0.47 | −$0.02 | $383.9M | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $-0.12 | $-0.25 | +$0.13 | $281.5M | 8 |
Key Statistics (as of October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC)
| Price | USD 10.47 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 1.45% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 10.32 |
| Open | USD 10.22 |
| Day Range | USD 10.19 – 10.62 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 6.2 – 13.39 |
| Volume | 2,788,557 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.73B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (NVAX)
Nexqual's technical model rates NVAX "NEUTRAL" based on 2 bullish and 3 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
| Overall Signal | NEUTRAL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 48.61 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 10.43) |
| MACD | -0.13 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (NVAX)
Wall Street analysts rate NVAX "Hold" based on 9 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 14.44 (range USD 7–25), per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 9 |
| Mean Target | USD 14.44 |
| High Target | USD 25 |
| Low Target | USD 7 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 5 / 1 / 3 |
Earnings (NVAX)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD -0.42 |
| Revenue Estimate | $50.42M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD -0.32 vs est -0.38 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD -0.06 vs est -0.24 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.11 vs est -0.49 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD -1.25 vs est -1.17 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (NVAX)
| Total Revenue | $413.80M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -76.30% |
| Gross Margin | -2.56% |
| Operating Margin | -89.61% |
| Profit Margin | -59.87% |
| Current Ratio | 2.33 |
| Total Cash | $719.34M |
| Total Debt | $297.32M |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | -$42.20M (-10.2% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
Financial Health Score (NVAX)
Nexqual rates Novavax, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +65% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 79%, operating -57% (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Balance Sheet | Mixed — $719M cash and investments vs $291M debt (Jun 2026, SEC), net cash |
| Cash Flow | Weak — FCF negative: -$42M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), burning cash |
| Efficiency | Critical — ROE not meaningful (negative equity); ROA -25.9% (last 4 quarters, SEC) |
Ownership (NVAX)
| Insider Ownership | +5.05% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +66.63% |
| Shares Outstanding | 164.95M |
| Float | 146.21M |
| Short % of Float | +28.89% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
Leadership (NVAX)
Novavax, Inc. is led by John Charles Jacobs, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | John Charles Jacobs |
|---|---|
| Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | James Patrick Kelly C.F.A. |
| Executive VP & Chief Strategy Officer | Elaine O'Hara |
| Executive VP & COO | Richard P. Crowley |
| Director of Investor Relations | Naina Zaman |
Major Backers & Investors (NVAX)
Notable institutional backers of Novavax, Inc. include Shah Capital Management, Sanofi, Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc., according to Nexqual as of October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Shah Capital Management | 7.38% |
| Sanofi | 4.17% |
| Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 3.43% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | 2.48% |
| Coatue Management | 2.33% |
| Fidelity | 1.01% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 9.01% |
| BlackRock | 8.46% |
| State Street | 7.12% |
| Geode Capital | 2.55% |
Source: Nexqual, October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC.
From Novavax, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-26)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our proprietary Matrix-M™ adjuvant is a key differentiator within our platform.
- Department of Health and Human Services, for early-stage work on this vaccine candidate including the Matrix-M™ adjuvant.
- We allocated $26.9 million of fixed consideration to the Updated Takeda License performance obligations and $0.6 million to Takeda Support Services.
- Our proprietary Matrix-M™ adjuvant when added to vaccines, has been shown to help induce a stronger and longer-lasting immune response.
Partnerships
- On April 29, 2025, we entered into a collaboration and exclusive license agreement, as amended ("Amended Takeda CLA"), with Takeda "Pharmaceutical Company Limited ("Takeda") which amended and superseded our collaboration and exclusive license agreement with Takeda, dated February 24, 2021 ("Original Takeda CLA").
- In January 2026, we entered into a non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer for use of Matrix-M adjuvant in up to two infectious disease areas.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Our vaccine candidates for which we intend to seek approval as biologic products may face competition sooner than anticipated.
- Failure to obtain regulatory approval in foreign jurisdictions could prevent us from marketing our products internationally.
- We have conducted, continue to conduct and plan to conduct in the future, a number of clinical trials for our vaccine candidates at sites outside the U.S. and the U.S. FDA may not accept data from trials conducted in such locations.
- We have in the past conducted, and may in the future conduct one or more of our clinical trials or a portion of our clinical trials for our vaccine candidates outside the U.S.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOD | Kodiak Sciences Inc | USD 100.4 | ▲ 3.46% |
| RYTM | Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | USD 93.07 | ▲ 1.2% |
| ORKA | Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. | USD 96.65 | ▲ 0.71% |
| AXSM | Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | USD 143.45 | ▼ 0.04% |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | USD 44.39 | ▼ 1.14% |
| PRAX | Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc | USD 288.62 | ▲ 1.1% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 29, 2026 at 21:27 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt