Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Price & Analysis
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) closed at USD 70.31 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 1.50% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 69.27; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 69.23–70.37 on volume of 571,765 shares. Market capitalization is $3.09B, with a 52-week range of USD 67.24–92.4 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/AGO.md
Key facts (AGO)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $940M, net income $351M (37.3% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 8.8x (avg 9.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AGO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $4.0M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.0M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 91 (range 85–97).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +38.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 1.7, revenue estimate $206M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (AGO)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $848M | $723M | $1.37B | $872M | $1.11B | $940M |
| Net income | $389M | $124M | $739M | $376M | $503M | $351M |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.23 | $1.92 | $12.30 | $6.87 | $10.26 | — |
| Net margin | 45.9% | 17.2% | 53.8% | 43.1% | 45.3% | 37.3% |
| Revenue growth | -23.9% | -14.7% | +89.9% | -36.5% | +27.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.57B | $1.02B | $1.95B | $1.35B | $1.32B | — |
| Total debt | $1.67B | $1.68B | $1.69B | $1.70B | $1.70B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (AGO)
P/E 8.8x · P/S 3.3x · P/B 0.6x · Earnings yield 11.35% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.20% · Buyback yield (TTM) 11.93%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.7x, Dec 2024 13.0x, Dec 2023 6.0x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (AGO)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold AGO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Chou | Chou Associates | 0.63% | $1.4M | Unchanged |
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (AGO)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Radtke Lorin | Director | 1,047 | $78K | 10.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Bailenson Robert | Chief Operating Officer | 50,000 | $3.9M | 16.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (AGO)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 91 (low 85, high 97).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Roth Capital | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $80 → $85 |
| 2026-08-13 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $101 → $97 |
| 2026-07-17 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $103 → $101 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (AGO)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.5% | +38.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -13.6% | +6.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.8% | 26.0% |
| Max drawdown | -25.5% (Dec 2025→Sep 2026) | -28.9% (Nov 2022→Mar 2023) |
AGO revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Guaranty | $199.0M | 102.1% | +0.0% |
| Annuity Reinsurance | $15.0M | 7.7% | — |
| Total revenue | $195.0M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
AGO company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “The difference between loss expense and economic development in a given period represents the amount of deferred premium revenue absorbing expected losses to be paid. 4 Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Expense (Benefit) (in millions) Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 2025 Public finance $ 1 $ 29 U.S.”
- “The table below presents the roll forward of net expected losses for second quarter 2026.”
- “Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) (1) (in millions) Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2026 Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) Net (Paid) Recovered Losses Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2026 Public finance $ 131 $ 48 $ (5) $ 174 U.S.”
- “Adjusted Operating Shareholders' Equity and ABV The Company's management believes that adjusted operating shareholders' equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
AGO analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $1.70 | $1.61 | +5.7% | $205.7M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $1.79 | $1.59 | +12.4% | $208.3M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $7.02 | $7.26 | -3.4% | $883.7M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $7.04 | $7.20 | -2.3% | $843.6M | 3 |
AGO options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±6.7% (±$4.70) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 5, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±3.8% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 29.0% | ±6.7% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 24.0% | ±9.2% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 27.2% | ±13.7% |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 175 | 28.7% | ±15.7% |
30-day implied volatility 24.8% vs 18.4% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.01. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC)
| Price | USD 70.31 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 1.50% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 69.27 |
| Open | USD 69.61 |
| Day Range | USD 69.23 – 70.37 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 67.24 – 92.4 |
| Volume | 571,765 shares |
| Market Cap | $3.09B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (AGO)
Nexqual's technical model rates AGO "NEUTRAL" based on 2 bullish and 3 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Overall Signal | NEUTRAL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 46.3 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 71.95) |
| MACD | -0.55 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (AGO)
Wall Street analysts rate AGO "Buy" based on 3 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 91 (range USD 85–97), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 3 |
| Mean Target | USD 91 |
| High Target | USD 97 |
| Low Target | USD 85 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 3 / 0 / 0 |
Earnings (AGO)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 1.7 |
| Revenue Estimate | $205.70M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 1.23 vs est 1.6 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 2.5 vs est 1.63 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 2.32 vs est 1.56 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 2.57 vs est 1.54 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (AGO)
| Total Revenue | $813.00M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | -0.50% |
| Gross Margin | +94.34% |
| Operating Margin | +42.64% |
| Profit Margin | +43.17% |
| ROE | +6.67% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.31 |
| Current Ratio | 0.99 |
| Total Cash | $1.24B |
| Total Debt | $1.71B |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Financial Health Score (AGO)
Nexqual rates Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +27% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 94%, operating 43% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Mixed — $1.10B cash and investments vs $1.71B debt (Mar 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $259M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE 7%, ROA 1.6% |
Ownership (AGO)
| Insider Ownership | +6.87% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +96.61% |
| Shares Outstanding | 43.98M |
| Float | 41.33M |
| Short % of Float | +8.07% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Leadership (AGO)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is led by Dominic John Frederico, Deputy Chairman, President & CEO, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Deputy Chairman, President & CEO | Dominic John Frederico |
|---|---|
| Chief Financial Officer | Benjamin Gad Rosenblum |
| Chief Operating Officer | Robert Adam Bailenson |
| CTO & Head of Information Technology | Christopher M. Gibbons |
| Senior Managing Director of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications | Robert S. Tucker |
Major Backers & Investors (AGO)
Notable institutional backers of Assured Guaranty Ltd. include First Trust Advisors LP, American Century Companies Inc, AQR Capital Management, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| First Trust Advisors LP | 3.45% |
| American Century Companies Inc | 3.19% |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 3.17% |
| Reinhart Partners, LLC | 2.7% |
| River Road Asset Management, LLC | 2.64% |
| DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio | 2.2% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 13.38% |
| BlackRock | 13.16% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 6.89% |
| State Street | 3.61% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
From Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-27)
Partnerships
- AG also has in place with AGE a net worth maintenance agreement that is similar to AG's Net Worth Agreement with AGUK - i.e., the former obligates AG to ensure that AGE maintains capital resources at least equal to 110% of its greatest capital requirement for carrying on a financial guarantee business in France, subject to limitations on the amount of individual and aggregate contributions that AG can make under the agreement without MIA approval or non-disapproval.
- On July 1, 2023, Assured Guaranty contributed to Sound Point, LP most of its asset management business, other than that conducted by Assured Healthcare Partners LLC (AHP) (AssuredIM Contributed Business), as contemplated by the transaction agreement entered into with Sound Point on April 5, 2023 (Transaction Agreement).
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Changes in, or inability to comply with, applicable laws and regulations could adversely affect the Company's financial condition, results of operations, capital, liquidity, business prospects and share price.
- Changes in applicable laws or regulations or governmental policies may adversely impact the ability of issuers to satisfy obligations insured or reinsured by the Company.
- The Company is, and may be in the future, involved in litigation, both as a defendant and as a plaintiff, in the ordinary course of its insurance and asset management business and other business operations.
- AGL's ability to pay dividends and fund share repurchases and other activities may be constrained by certain insurance regulatory requirements and restrictions.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
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|---|---|---|---|
| NMIH | NMI Holdings Inc | USD 41.49 | ▲ 1.77% |
| RDN | Radian Group Inc. | USD 34.7 | ▲ 2.12% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | USD 27.74 | ▲ 1.57% |
| ESNT | Essent Group Ltd. | USD 65.7 | ▲ 2.62% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | USD 46.92 | ▲ 2.78% |
| FAF | First American Corporation (New | USD 65.07 | ▼ 2.09% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt