The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) Stock Price & Analysis
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) closed at USD 31.89 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 0.09% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 31.92; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 31.89–32.02 on volume of 1,525,008 shares. Market capitalization is $4.49B, with a 52-week range of USD 15.88–32.71 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/BWIN.md
Key facts (BWIN)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.74B, net income -$81.2M (-4.7% margin), free cash flow $43.7M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $4.6M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.6M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.25 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 32.42 (range 32–32.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +30.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -17.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.43, revenue estimate $492M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (BWIN)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $567M | $981M | $1.22B | $1.39B | $1.50B | $1.74B |
| Operating income | -$31.6M | -$31.1M | -$42.6M | $60.6M | $73.9M | -$120M |
| Net income | -$30.6M | -$41.8M | -$90.1M | -$24.5M | -$33.8M | -$81.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.64 | -$0.74 | -$1.50 | -$0.39 | -$0.50 | — |
| Free cash flow | $34.8M | -$24.4M | -$21.3M | $10.4M | -$68.9M | $43.7M |
| Operating margin | -5.6% | -3.2% | -3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | -6.9% |
| Net margin | -5.4% | -4.3% | -7.4% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -4.7% |
| Revenue growth | — | +72.9% | +24.3% | +14.0% | +8.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $138M | $118M | $116M | $90.0M | $124M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (BWIN)
P/S 2.6x · P/FCF 102.6x · P/B 5.1x · FCF yield 0.97% · Earnings yield -1.81%
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (BWIN)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Cohen Seth Bala | General Counsel | 15,000 | $300K | 51.7% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-06…2026-05-07 | Krystyn Elizabeth | 202,000 | $4.3M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (BWIN)
Consensus Hold (mean 3.25 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 32.42 (low 32, high 32.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | TD Cowen | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $37 → $32.5 |
| 2026-10-02 | UBS | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $37 → $32.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Overweight → Neutral | $30 → $32 |
| 2026-09-15 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Market Perform | $26 → $32.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | William Blair | Downgrade | Outperform → Market Perform | |
| 2026-08-03 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $35 → $37 |
| 2026-08-03 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $27 → $28 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $28 → $30 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $24 → $27 |
| 2026-07-08 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $26 → $31 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (BWIN)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +30.6% | -17.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +30.7% | -3.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.8% | 49.6% |
| Max drawdown | -42.1% (Nov 2025→Feb 2026) | -69.9% (Oct 2024→Feb 2026) |
BWIN revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Advisory Solutions | $275.3M | 55.9% | +50.2% |
| Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions | $160.2M | 32.5% | +8.6% |
| Mainstreet Insurance Solutions | $75.3M | 15.3% | +13.2% |
| Total revenue | $492.9M | 100% | — |
BWIN revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commission Revenue | $373.1M | 75.7% | +24.7% |
| Consultingand Service Fee Revenue | $44.9M | 9.1% | +64.0% |
| Profit Sharing Revenue | $29.5M | 6.0% | +48.0% |
| Policy Feeand Installment Fee Revenue | $21.2M | 4.3% | +7.7% |
| Earned Premium | $15.3M | 3.1% | +179.0% |
| Other Insurance Product Line | $4.8M | 1.0% | +6.7% |
| Total revenue | $492.9M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
BWIN suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO) | “As described in Management's Annual Report on Internal Control Over Financial Reporting, management has excluded two partnerships (MultiStrat and Hippo's Homebuilder Distribution Network) from its assessment of internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2025 because they were acquired by the Company in purchase business combinations during 2025.” |
| Partner | LLC Members of | “The Tax Receivable Agreement with Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members provides for the payment by us to Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members of 85% of the amount of cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state and local income tax or franchise tax that we actually realize as a result of (i) any increase in tax basis in Baldwin's assets resulting from (a) previous acquisitions by Baldwin of LLC Units from Baldwin Holdings' LLC …” |
| Partner | Baldwin of | “The Tax Receivable Agreement with Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members provides for the payment by us to Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members of 85% of the amount of cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state and local income tax or franchise tax that we actually realize as a result of (i) any increase in tax basis in Baldwin's assets resulting from (a) previous acquisitions by Baldwin of LLC Units from Baldwin Holdings' LLC …” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026.
BWIN customer concentration
In the period ended Dec 31, 2025, a single direct customer accounted for 10% of revenue, per the company's 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026. The company does not name it.
BWIN company outlook (results filed Jul 30, 2026)
- “NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This press release may contain various "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which represent Baldwin's expectations or beliefs concerning future events.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
BWIN analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.43 | $0.44 | -2.4% | $491.8M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.46 | $0.47 | -2.1% | $487.9M | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $2.01 | $2.01 | -0.1% | $2.01B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $2.48 | $2.50 | -0.9% | $2.20B | 9 |
BWIN options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±9.0% (±$2.88) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 3, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±11% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 33.5% | ±9.0% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 14.3% | ±10.0% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 25.5% | ±11.8% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 19.8% | ±11.9% |
30-day implied volatility 8.4% vs 23.1% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 1.4. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC)
| Price | USD 31.89 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 0.09% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 31.92 |
| Open | USD 31.93 |
| Day Range | USD 31.89 – 32.02 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 15.88 – 32.71 |
| Volume | 1,525,008 shares |
| Market Cap | $4.49B |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (BWIN)
Nexqual's technical model rates BWIN "STRONG BUY" based on 5 bullish and 0 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
| Overall Signal | STRONG BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 55.97 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 31.35) |
| MACD | 0.21 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (BWIN)
Wall Street analysts rate BWIN "Hold" based on 8 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 32.42 (range USD 32–32.5), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 8 |
| Mean Target | USD 32.42 |
| High Target | USD 32.5 |
| Low Target | USD 32 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 0 / 7 / 1 |
Earnings (BWIN)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-03 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.43 |
| Revenue Estimate | $491.85M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.48 vs est 0.47 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.63 vs est 0.63 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.31 vs est 0.29 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.31 vs est 0.31 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (BWIN)
| Total Revenue | $1.74B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +30.10% |
| Gross Margin | +31.26% |
| Operating Margin | +2.00% |
| Profit Margin | -4.67% |
| ROE | -10.66% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.8 |
| Current Ratio | 1.07 |
| Total Cash | $184.50M |
| Total Debt | $2.57B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $43.71M (2.5% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
Financial Health Score (BWIN)
Nexqual rates The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +8% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 31%, operating 2% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Weak — $184M cash vs $2.57B debt |
| Cash Flow | Mixed — FCF $44M (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), slim 2.5% margin |
| Efficiency | Critical — ROE -11%, ROA -0.9% |
Ownership (BWIN)
| Insider Ownership | +2.58% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +102.84% |
| Shares Outstanding | 97.62M |
| Float | 89.53M |
| Short % of Float | +8.84% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
Leadership (BWIN)
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is led by Trevor Lowry Baldwin, Co-Founder, CEO & Non-Independent Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
| Co-Founder, CEO & Non-Independent Director | Trevor Lowry Baldwin |
|---|---|
| Co-Founder & Chairman | L. Lowry Baldwin |
| President & CEO of Retail Brokerage Operations | Daniel Galbraith |
| President, CEO of Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Operations | James Morgan Roche |
| Chief Financial Officer | Bradford Lenzie Hale |
Major Backers & Investors (BWIN)
Notable institutional backers of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. include FMR, LLC, Fidelity, William Blair Investment Management, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 15.11% |
| Fidelity | 8.18% |
| William Blair Investment Management, LLC | 6.9% |
| SmallCap World Fund Inc | 2.99% |
| BAMCO Inc. | 2.78% |
| BARON INVESTMENT Fd.S TRT -Baron Small Cap Fd. | 2.77% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 7.43% |
| Vanguard Group | 6.58% |
| BNY Mellon | 3.15% |
| State Street | 2.73% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC.
From The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-26)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our growth plan includes continuing to recruit, train and develop industry leading talent, continuing to add geographic representation, insurance product expertise and end-client industry expertise via our partnership strategy, and continuing to build out MSI, which delivers proprietary, technology-enabled insurance solutions to our internal risk advisors as well as to a growing channel of external distribution partners.
- Through MSI, we manufacture proprietary, technology-enabled insurance products that are then distributed (in many instances via technology and/or API integrations) internally via our risk advisors across our other operating groups and externally via select distribution partners, with a focus on sheltered channels where our products deliver speed, ease of use and certainty of execution.
Partnerships
- We believe our success attracting high quality partners has validated our differentiated value proposition—we have consummated partnerships with 37 firms since the beginning of 2020, for a total of $909.0 million of acquired revenue, which includes nine "Top 100" firms since 2020, including our recently announced partnership with CAC Group, a nationally recognized specialty and middle-market insurance brokerage firm.
- Enhanced with AI coaching, role guides, and data driven insights, this partnership broadens and deepens the resources available to our colleagues. ◦Continuing Education: We support the licensing, continuing education, and professional development needs of our colleagues by providing access to a variety of technical training certifications and designations.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We cannot predict the impact that any new laws, rules or regulations may have on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
- Our involvement in any investigations and lawsuits would cause us to incur additional legal and other costs and, if we were found to have violated any laws, we could be required to pay fines, damages and other costs, perhaps in material amounts.
- The marketing and sale of Medicare plans are subject to numerous, complex and frequently changing laws and regulations, and non-compliance or changes in laws and regulations could harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.
- We have received, and may in the future receive, inquiries from CMS or state departments of insurance regarding our marketing and business practices and compliance with laws and regulations.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARX | Accelerant Holdings | USD 19.76 | ▲ 0.05% |
| CRVL | CorVel Corp. | USD 83.88 | ▲ 3.93% |
| NP | Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | USD 28.72 | ▲ 1.16% |
| LIFE | Ethos Technologies Inc. | USD 43.53 | ▼ 1.56% |
| GSHD | Goosehead Insurance, Inc. | USD 50.62 | ▲ 11.69% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | USD 44.49 | ▲ 5.28% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 08:39 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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