The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Stock Price & Analysis

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) closed at USD 112.44 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 1.70% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.

The prior close was USD 114.39; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 110.51–115.16 on volume of 1,370,960 shares. Market capitalization is $5.60B, with a 52-week range of USD 43.07–118.63 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/CAKE.md

Key facts (CAKE)

• Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.88B, net income $179M (4.6% margin), free cash flow $206M (SEC filings).
• Valuation: P/E 31.3x (avg 16.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 18.8x, net debt $368M.
• 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CAKE (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
• Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $28.8M; 11 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($28.8M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
• Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $25K.
• Analysts: Hold (mean 2.95 on a 1–5 scale) (19 analysts), mean target USD 103.27 (range 60–128).
• Total return with dividends: 1Y +104.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +198.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
• Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 0.92, revenue estimate $999M.

Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (CAKE)

Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (CAKE)

P/E 31.3x · P/S 1.4x · EV/EBITDA 18.8x · EV/Sales 1.5x · P/FCF 27.1x · P/B 10.8x · FCF yield 3.69% · Earnings yield 3.19% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.99% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.75% · Net debt $368M · EV $5.96B

P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 16.5x, Dec 2024 14.8x, Jan 2024 16.6x.

Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (CAKE)

2 of 80 tracked investors hold CAKE. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.

Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (CAKE)

0 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.

% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).

Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (CAKE)

1 purchase, $25K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.

Analysts (CAKE)

Consensus Hold (mean 2.95 on a 1–5 scale), 19 analysts; mean target USD 103.27 (low 60, high 128).

Rating changes, last 120 days:

Total return (dividends reinvested) (CAKE)

CAKE revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)

As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).

CAKE suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)

Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026.

CAKE company outlook (results filed Jul 28, 2026)

• “The Company continues to expect to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including as many as five to six The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, six to seven North Italia locations, seven Flower Child locations and as many as seven FRC restaurants.”
• “(5) Based on the federal statutory rate and an estimated blended state tax rate, the tax effect on all adjustments assumes a 26% tax rate for the fiscal 2026 and 2025 periods.”

Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.

CAKE analyst estimates and revisions

CAKE options: expected move

Options price a move of about ±11.7% (±$13.10) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Oct 27, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±5% on average.

30-day implied volatility 51.8% vs 36.3% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 2.25. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.

Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC)

Technical Analysis (CAKE)

Nexqual's technical model rates CAKE "STRONG BUY" based on 5 bullish and 0 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Analyst Ratings (CAKE)

Wall Street analysts rate CAKE "Hold" based on 19 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 103.27 (range USD 60–128), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Earnings (CAKE)

Recent Earnings History

Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Financials & Fundamentals (CAKE)

Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Financial Health Score (CAKE)

Nexqual rates The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Ownership (CAKE)

Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Leadership (CAKE)

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is led by David M. Overton, Founder, Chairman & CEO, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Major Backers & Investors (CAKE)

Notable institutional backers of The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated include FMR, LLC, Earnest Partners LLC, American Century Companies Inc, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

Active Investors

Index Funds (Passive)

Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC.

From The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-23)

Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)

• We utilize a social media and digital marketing strategy that allows us to engage regularly with our customers outside of our restaurants, including communication and paid advertising on social media platforms such as Instagram® and TikTok®, influencer marketing, Google advertising and direct email to customers.
• Our extensive menu and strategic selection of locations enable us to compete for substantially all dining preferences and occasions, from the key lunch and dinner day parts to the mid-afternoon and late-night day parts, which are traditionally weaker times for most casual dining restaurants, as well as special occasion dining.
• Our ability to create, promote and attractively display our unique line of desserts is also important to the competitive positioning and financial success of our restaurants.
• We believe that the high average sales volumes and popularity of our restaurants allow us to attract and retain high-quality, experienced restaurant-level management and other operational personnel.

Partnerships

• In the United States, many of our locations currently participate in a Tip Reporting Alternative Commitment ("TRAC") agreement with the Internal Revenue Service ("IRS"), and we intend to apply to participate in any successor program to TRAC.

Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)

• Changes in, or any failure to comply with, applicable laws or regulations could materially adversely affect our ability to operate our restaurants and/or increase our cost to do so, which could materially adversely affect our financial performance.
• Our inability to respond appropriately to changes in consumer health and disclosure regulations, and to adapt to evolving consumer dining preferences, could negatively impact our operations and competitive position, which could materially adversely affect our financial performance.
• Changes in tax laws and resulting regulations could result in changes to our tax provisions and expose us to additional tax liabilities that could materially adversely affect our financial performance.

Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.

Peers & Related Stocks

Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:15 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.

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