Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Stock Price & Analysis
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) closed at USD 11.63 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 1.84% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 11.42; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 11.4–11.74 on volume of 1,456,353 shares. Market capitalization is $1.53B, with a 52-week range of USD 11.28–14.12 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/EFC.md
Key facts (EFC)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $455M, net income $194M (42.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.9x.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 14.64 (range 14–16).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -2.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +18.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.47, revenue estimate $176M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (EFC)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $151M | $60.0M | $277M | $306M | $336M | $455M |
| Net income | $125M | -$85.3M | $60.9M | $118M | $119M | $194M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.58 | -$1.43 | $0.89 | $1.36 | $1.19 | — |
| Free cash flow | $49.1M | $42.5M | -$242M | -$431M | -$925M | — |
| Net margin | 83.0% | -142.2% | 22.0% | 38.6% | 35.3% | 42.6% |
| Revenue growth | +223.7% | -60.3% | +361.6% | +10.4% | +10.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $92.7M | $217M | $229M | $192M | $202M | — |
| Total debt | $85.8M | $0K | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (EFC)
P/E 7.9x · P/S 3.4x · P/B 0.8x · Earnings yield 12.70% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 13.43%
Analysts (EFC)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 14.64 (low 14, high 16).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $15 → $14 |
| 2026-08-19 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $14 → $14.5 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (EFC)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -2.8% | +18.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -2.8% | +3.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 17.9% | 23.7% |
| Max drawdown | -17.7% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -32.1% (Mar 2022→Sep 2022) |
EFC company outlook (results filed Aug 7, 2026)
- “Other risks, uncertainties, and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected may be described from time to time in reports we file with the SEC, including reports on Forms 10-Q, 10-K and 8-K.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
EFC analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.47 | $0.47 | +0.6% | $176.2M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.48 | $0.47 | +1.3% | $178.9M | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $2.09 | $1.94 | +8.0% | $681.1M | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $1.97 | $1.93 | +2.2% | $758.9M | 8 |
EFC options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±11.6% (±$1.35) by Dec 18, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 4, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±2.2% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 27.0% | ±11.6% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 22.9% | ±13.0% |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 175 | 23.8% | ±14.4% |
30-day implied volatility 23.9% vs 19.6% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC)
| Price | USD 11.63 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 1.84% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 11.42 |
| Open | USD 11.47 |
| Day Range | USD 11.4 – 11.74 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 11.28 – 14.12 |
| Volume | 1,456,353 shares |
| Market Cap | $1.53B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (EFC)
Nexqual's technical model rates EFC "STRONG SELL" based on 0 bullish and 5 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
| Overall Signal | STRONG SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.85 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 12.61) |
| MACD | -0.3 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (EFC)
Wall Street analysts rate EFC "Buy" based on 8 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 14.64 (range USD 14–16), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 8 |
| Mean Target | USD 14.64 |
| High Target | USD 16 |
| Low Target | USD 14 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 6 / 2 / 0 |
Earnings (EFC)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-04 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.47 |
| Revenue Estimate | $176.23M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.6 vs est 0.46 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.55 vs est 0.49 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.47 vs est 0.46 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.53 vs est 0.44 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (EFC)
| Total Revenue | $431.35M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +33.80% |
| Gross Margin | +100.00% |
| Operating Margin | +55.87% |
| Profit Margin | +51.50% |
| ROE | +12.25% |
| Debt / Equity | 9.29 |
| Current Ratio | 7.63 |
| Total Cash | $1.00B |
| Total Debt | $18.57B |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
Financial Health Score (EFC)
Nexqual rates Ellington Financial Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +19% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Operating margin 56% |
| Balance Sheet | Weak — $1.00B cash vs $18.6B debt |
| Cash Flow | Weak — Operating cash flow -$925M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE 12%, ROA 1.2% |
Ownership (EFC)
| Insider Ownership | +2.58% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +53.46% |
| Shares Outstanding | 128.89M |
| Float | 125.96M |
| Short % of Float | +8.74% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
Leadership (EFC)
Ellington Financial Inc. is led by Laurence Eric Penn, CEO, President & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
| CEO, President & Director | Laurence Eric Penn |
|---|---|
| CFO & Treasurer | J. R. Herlihy |
Major Backers & Investors (EFC)
Notable institutional backers of Ellington Financial Inc. include Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd., Invesco, JPMorgan, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd. | 1.74% |
| Invesco | 1.43% |
| JPMorgan | 1.15% |
| Delphi Financial Group, Inc. | 1.09% |
| Fidelity | 1.05% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 16.2% |
| Vanguard Group | 5.82% |
| State Street | 3.84% |
| Geode Capital | 2.47% |
| Northern Trust | 1.15% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC.
From Ellington Financial Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-02)
Partnerships
- Our repo financing counterparties generally have the right, to varying degrees, to determine the value of the underlying collateral for margining purposes, subject to the terms and conditions of our agreement with the counterparty.
- Our repo arrangements on securities are documented under the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association's, or "SIFMA's," standard form master repurchase agreement with the ability for both parties to demand margin (i.e., to demand that the other party post additional collateral or repay a portion of the funds advanced) should the value of the underlying assets and posted collateral change.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- Our MSR-related investments depend on the performance of third-party mortgage servicers. Servicing failures, regulatory penalties, or operational disruptions could negatively impact the value and cash flows associated with these assets.
- Our loan origination and servicing businesses require substantial capital, and our ability to operate depends on access to financing and compliance with regulatory requirements. Changes in funding sources or capital requirements could impact profitability.
- We rely on third-party subservicers and service providers for compliance, loan administration, and operational support. Failures or deficiencies in their performance could expose us to financial, operational, and reputational risks.
- Climate change and regulatory initiatives related to environmental risk may impact the properties underlying our mortgage investments, potentially increasing insurance costs or affecting real estate values in certain regions.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | USD 10.58 | ▲ 3.73% |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | USD 12.69 | ▼ 0.94% |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | USD 9.32 | ▲ 4.02% |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | USD 4.9 | ▲ 0.62% |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | USD 11.05 | ▼ 0% |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real Estate F | USD 6.3 | ▼ 0.63% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 11:57 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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